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儘管比特幣 (BTC) 最近飆升至 68,000 美元以上,但一位著名的加密貨幣分析師警告稱,這種加密貨幣可能尚未準備好起飛。
Prominent crypto analyst Justin Bennett is urging caution as Bitcoin’s recent surge to above $68,000 might not yet indicate a sustainable takeoff.
著名加密貨幣分析師賈斯汀貝內特 (Justin Bennett) 敦促謹慎行事,因為比特幣最近飆升至 68,000 美元以上,可能尚未表明可持續的起飛。
Bennett, a closely followed figure in the crypto space with 133,400 followers on X, highlighted some mixed signals in Bitcoin’s recent price movements, suggesting that the surge appears to be largely driven by speculators. He also pointed out the weak spot market trading volumes, suggesting that the recent price action might not yet indicate a sustainable uptrend.
Bennett 是加密貨幣領域備受關注的人物,在 X 上擁有 133,400 名追隨者,他強調了比特幣近期價格走勢中的一些複雜信號,表明比特幣的飆升似乎主要是由投機者推動的。他也指出現貨市場交易量疲軟,顯示近期的價格走勢可能尚未顯示可持續的上漲趨勢。
People are celebrating a Bitcoin breakout on a low volume Friday. The day & week aren't over yet. Much of this rally is being driven by perpetual futures, & open interest (OI) has returned to its July peak. I'm not making any definitive calls yet b/c the data is conflicting.
人們正在慶祝週五成交量較低的比特幣突破。這一天和一週還沒結束。此次反彈很大程度上是由永續期貨推動的,未平倉合約 (OI) 已恢復至 7 月的高峰。我還沒有做出任何明確的決定,因為數據是衝突的。
— Justin Bennett (@JustinBennettFX) October 18, 2024
— 賈斯汀貝內特 (@JustinBennettFX) 2024 年 10 月 18 日
Bitcoin’s breakout from a seven-month narrow trading range, especially in low-volume weekend trading, is a phenomenon to watch closely. Bennett’s concerns can be summed up in his statement:
比特幣突破七個月窄幅交易區間,尤其是在週末交易量較低的情況下,是值得密切關注的現象。貝內特的擔憂可以在他的聲明中總結:
“People are celebrating a Bitcoin breakout on a low-volume Friday. But neither the day nor the week is over yet. Much of this rally is being driven by perpetual futures, and open interest (OI) has returned to its July peak. I’m not making any definitive calls yet because the data is conflicting. But as a trader, there’s no harm in being cautious at this point.”
「人們正在慶祝週五成交量較低的比特幣突破。但這一天或一週都還沒結束。此次反彈很大程度上是由永續期貨推動的,未平倉合約 (OI) 已恢復至 7 月的高峰。我還沒有做出任何明確的決定,因為數據是衝突的。但作為交易者,此時保持謹慎總沒有壞處。
Open Interest (OI) tracks the total number of outstanding derivative contracts for a given asset. Sudden spikes in OI can lead to deep corrections, as overly leveraged traders may be forced to liquidate their positions. According to Bennett, Bitcoin bulls must defend the $68,200 level to avoid an impending correction.
未平倉合約 (OI) 追蹤給定資產的未平倉衍生性合約總數。持倉量突然飆升可能會導致深度調整,因為槓桿過高的交易者可能被迫清算其部位。 Bennett 表示,比特幣多頭必須守住 68,200 美元的水平,以避免即將到來的調整。
What Should Investors Do?
投資人該做什麼?
Bennett noted that last week saw some curious movements in the crypto market, with whales (large Bitcoin holders) showing surprising activity compared to smaller traders, and spot market activity remaining dull. He suggests that much of the recent rally could be attributed to futures trading, which is usually not a sign of a healthy market.
貝內特指出,上週加密市場出現了一些奇怪的走勢,與小型交易者相比,鯨魚(大型比特幣持有者)表現出令人驚訝的活動,而現貨市場活動仍然平淡。他認為,最近的上漲很大程度上可以歸因於期貨交易,這通常不是市場健康的跡象。
The crypto strategist stressed that Bitcoin’s response at the $68,200 level is more significant than the conflicting data. If the price fails to hold above this level, a deeper correction could follow. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $68,241, and if it fails to hold at this price point, Bennett anticipates a strong short-term correction.
這位加密貨幣策略師強調,比特幣在 68,200 美元水準上的反應比相互矛盾的數據更重要。如果價格未能保持在該水平之上,則可能會出現更深層的調整。目前,比特幣的交易價格為 68,241 美元,如果未能保持在這個價格點,貝內特預計將出現強勁的短期調整。
Tether (USDT) Dominance: A Bullish Sign for BTC
Tether (USDT) 佔據主導地位:BTC 看漲訊號
Bennett also highlighted a potentially bullish signal for Bitcoin – the recent decline in Tether’s (USDT) market dominance, which has fallen below two key support levels.
Bennett 也強調了比特幣的一個潛在看漲訊號——Tether (USDT) 市場主導地位最近下降,已跌破兩個關鍵支撐位。
USDT Dominance (USDT.D) tracks the percentage of the total crypto market cap that is represented by Tether. Drops in USDT.D are usually seen as a bullish sign for Bitcoin and altcoins, as it indicates that traders are using their stablecoins to buy crypto assets.
USDT Dominance (USDT.D) 追蹤以 Tether 為代表的加密貨幣總市值的百分比。 USDT.D 的下跌通常被視為比特幣和山寨幣的看漲訊號,因為這表明交易者正在使用穩定幣購買加密資產。
According to Bennett, if USDT dominance continues to decline, Bitcoin could rally by as much as 20%. His analysis shows that this trend signals that investors are moving out of stablecoins and into Bitcoin and other crypto assets, which could lead to a strong short-term rally.
Bennett 表示,如果 USDT 的主導地位繼續下降,比特幣可能會上漲 20%。他的分析表明,這一趨勢表明投資者正在從穩定幣轉向比特幣和其他加密資產,這可能會導致短期強勁反彈。
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