比特币（BTC）价格行动分析：这是四年周期的结束吗？

几周来，比特币一直在摇摆。自1月中旬燃料的历史峰值109,000美元以来，它的历史峰值降低了22％。

Bitcoin has been largely unperturbed since mid-January and the historic peak at $109,000 reached by the flagship cryptocurrency. After a 22% drop from this high, some are beginning to wonder if this marks the end of the four-year cycle, an integral part of the crypto market’s DNA, or merely a turbulent phase ahead of a new surge.

自1月中旬以来，比特币在很大程度上不受干扰，历史峰值达到了旗舰加密货币的109,000美元。从这个高点下降了22％之后，有些人开始怀疑这是否标志着四年周期的结束，是加密货币市场DNA不可或缺的一部分，还是在新激增之前的动荡阶段。

Most analysts lean towards the latter option, but the nuances bear further examination.

大多数分析师都倾向于后一种选择，但细微差别进行了进一步的检查。

A Jolt, Not a Collapse

震动，不是崩溃

震动，不是崩溃

The figures may seem alarming, but a glance at history offers reassurance. Bitcoin has endured far more violent corrections in previous cycles. Back in 2017, a 40% decline over two weeks did not hinder BTC from sixfold price gains within a year.

这些数字似乎令人震惊，但是一眼就可以放心。在以前的周期中，比特币经历了更加暴力的校正。早在2017年，在两周内下降了40％，并没有阻碍BTC在一年内的六倍上涨。

In the present context, the magnitude of the downturn is comparable, and the dynamic is similar: a “shakeout,” characterized by a brutal purge to eliminate fragile positions. Technical indicators, despite being bearish in the short term, do not alter the structural trend.

在当前情况下，低迷的大小是可比的，动态相似：“摇动”，其特征是残酷的清除以消除脆弱的位置。技术指标尽管在短期内看跌，但并不会改变结构性趋势。

Key support, according to Bitfinex, remains at $72,000-$73,000. Most crucially, the four-year cycles, defined by halvings (reduction of mining rewards), have always acted as bullish catalysts. The latest halving, in April 2024, already propelled a 31% price surge. The underlying mechanics appear intact.

根据Bitfinex的说法，主要的支持仍为72,000-73,000美元。最关键的是，由过度的（减少采矿奖励）定义的四年周期一直充当看涨的催化剂。 2024年4月的最新减半已经推动了31％的价格上涨。潜在的力学似乎完好无损。

However, a new factor is muddying the picture: institutional adoption. Bitcoin ETFs have injected over $125 billion, generating unprecedented structural demand. These flows, less susceptible to retail investor sentiment, could mitigate cyclical shocks.

但是，一个新的因素正在使图片混乱：机构采用。比特币ETF注入了超过1,250亿美元，产生了前所未有的结构需求。这些流动不太容易受到散户投资者情绪的影响，可能会减轻周期性冲击。

“The conventional cycle is ceasing to exist,” some analysts assert.

一些分析师断言：“常规周期将停止存在。”

Threats to the Bitcoin Cycle

对比特币周期的威胁

对比特币周期的威胁

While the scenario of a simple adjustment seems plausible, certain risks remain. Bitcoin no longer evolves in isolation. Its correlation with the S&P 500 and Treasury yields has intensified.

尽管简单调整的情况似乎是合理的，但仍然存在某些风险。比特币不再孤立地演变。它与标准普尔500指数和财政收益的相关性加剧了。

A stock market crash, driven by trade tensions or rising interest rates, could easily drag BTC down with it. Reclaiming $84,000 in mid-March does not grant immunity to broader market turbulence.

由于贸易紧张局势或利率上升，股市崩溃很容易将BTC拖延。在3月中旬收回84,000美元并不能赋予更广泛的市场动荡。

Another concern is that Bitcoin’s CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over four years has dropped to 8%, reaching a historical low. For Iliya Kalchev from Nexo, this figure raises questions about the sustainability of the four-year cycle.

另一个问题是，四年来，比特币的复合年增长率（复合年增长率）下降到8％，达到历史低位。对于Nexo的Iliya Kalchev，这一数字提出了有关四年周期可持续性的疑问。

Institutions, by absorbing a larger portion of the supply, may be accelerating the market’s maturation, which could diminish the magnitude of historical price volatilities.

通过吸收较大供应的机构，机构可能正在加速市场的成熟，这可能会降低历史价格波动的幅度。

Finally, geopolitical shocks, such as trade wars or monetary crises, could exert pressure on investor sentiment. If investors opt for traditional safe-haven assets, Bitcoin, still viewed as a riskier asset class, might face temporary disfavor.

最后，地缘政治冲击（例如贸易战争或货币危机）可能会对投资者的情绪施加压力。如果投资者选择传统的安全资产，那么仍然被视为风险较高的资产类别的比特币可能会面临暂时的损害。

The "extreme fear" currently indicated by sentiment indices reflects this nervousness.

当前情绪指数目前表明的“极端恐惧”反映了这种紧张感。