比特幣（BTC）價格行動分析：這是四年周期的結束嗎？

幾週來，比特幣一直在搖擺。自1月中旬燃料的歷史峰值109,000美元以來，它的歷史峰值降低了22％。

Bitcoin has been largely unperturbed since mid-January and the historic peak at $109,000 reached by the flagship cryptocurrency. After a 22% drop from this high, some are beginning to wonder if this marks the end of the four-year cycle, an integral part of the crypto market’s DNA, or merely a turbulent phase ahead of a new surge.

自1月中旬以來，比特幣在很大程度上不受干擾，歷史峰值達到了旗艦加密貨幣的109,000美元。從這個高點下降了22％之後，有些人開始懷疑這是否標誌著四年周期的結束，是加密貨幣市場DNA不可或缺的一部分，還是在新激增之前的動盪階段。

Most analysts lean towards the latter option, but the nuances bear further examination.

大多數分析師都傾向於後一種選擇，但細微差別進行了進一步的檢查。

A Jolt, Not a Collapse

震動，不是崩潰

震動，不是崩潰

The figures may seem alarming, but a glance at history offers reassurance. Bitcoin has endured far more violent corrections in previous cycles. Back in 2017, a 40% decline over two weeks did not hinder BTC from sixfold price gains within a year.

這些數字似乎令人震驚，但是一眼就可以放心。在以前的周期中，比特幣經歷了更加暴力的校正。早在2017年，在兩週內下降了40％，並沒有阻礙BTC在一年內的六倍上漲。

In the present context, the magnitude of the downturn is comparable, and the dynamic is similar: a “shakeout,” characterized by a brutal purge to eliminate fragile positions. Technical indicators, despite being bearish in the short term, do not alter the structural trend.

在當前情況下，低迷的大小是可比的，動態相似：“搖動”，其特徵是殘酷的清除以消除脆弱的位置。技術指標儘管在短期內看跌，但並不會改變結構性趨勢。

Key support, according to Bitfinex, remains at $72,000-$73,000. Most crucially, the four-year cycles, defined by halvings (reduction of mining rewards), have always acted as bullish catalysts. The latest halving, in April 2024, already propelled a 31% price surge. The underlying mechanics appear intact.

根據Bitfinex的說法，主要的支持仍為72,000-73,000美元。最關鍵的是，由過度的（減少採礦獎勵）定義的四年周期一直充當看漲的催化劑。 2024年4月的最新減半已經推動了31％的價格上漲。潛在的力學似乎完好無損。

However, a new factor is muddying the picture: institutional adoption. Bitcoin ETFs have injected over $125 billion, generating unprecedented structural demand. These flows, less susceptible to retail investor sentiment, could mitigate cyclical shocks.

但是，一個新的因素正在使圖片混亂：機構採用。比特幣ETF注入了超過1,250億美元，產生了前所未有的結構需求。這些流動不太容易受到散戶投資者情緒的影響，可能會減輕週期性衝擊。

“The conventional cycle is ceasing to exist,” some analysts assert.

一些分析師斷言：“常規週期將停止存在。”

Threats to the Bitcoin Cycle

對比特幣週期的威脅

對比特幣週期的威脅

While the scenario of a simple adjustment seems plausible, certain risks remain. Bitcoin no longer evolves in isolation. Its correlation with the S&P 500 and Treasury yields has intensified.

儘管簡單調整的情況似乎是合理的，但仍然存在某些風險。比特幣不再孤立地演變。它與標準普爾500指數和財政收益的相關性加劇了。

A stock market crash, driven by trade tensions or rising interest rates, could easily drag BTC down with it. Reclaiming $84,000 in mid-March does not grant immunity to broader market turbulence.

由於貿易緊張局勢或利率上升，股市崩潰很容易將BTC拖延。在3月中旬收回84,000美元並不能賦予更廣泛的市場動盪。

Another concern is that Bitcoin’s CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over four years has dropped to 8%, reaching a historical low. For Iliya Kalchev from Nexo, this figure raises questions about the sustainability of the four-year cycle.

另一個問題是，四年來，比特幣的複合年增長率（複合年增長率）下降到8％，達到歷史低位。對於Nexo的Iliya Kalchev，這一數字提出了有關四年周期可持續性的疑問。

Institutions, by absorbing a larger portion of the supply, may be accelerating the market’s maturation, which could diminish the magnitude of historical price volatilities.

通過吸收較大供應的機構，機構可能正在加速市場的成熟，這可能會降低歷史價格波動的幅度。

Finally, geopolitical shocks, such as trade wars or monetary crises, could exert pressure on investor sentiment. If investors opt for traditional safe-haven assets, Bitcoin, still viewed as a riskier asset class, might face temporary disfavor.

最後，地緣政治衝擊（例如貿易戰爭或貨幣危機）可能會對投資者的情緒施加壓力。如果投資者選擇傳統的安全資產，那麼仍然被視為風險較高的資產類別的比特幣可能會面臨暫時的損害。

The "extreme fear" currently indicated by sentiment indices reflects this nervousness.

當前情緒指數目前表明的“極端恐懼”反映了這種緊張感。