随着全球流动性动态的转变，比特币（BTC）有望重拾看涨势头

全球流动性动态历来在推动比特币 (BTC) 价格方面发挥了重要作用，流动性的变化往往预示着

Bitcoin (BTC) price movements have historically shown sensitivity to shifts in global liquidity, which often foreshadows potential market movements. As Bitcoin continues to stage a recovery from recent downturns, certain economic factors, such as the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy and diminishing demand for U.S. Treasury Securities, are beginning to hint at a possible bullish momentum building up for the top cryptocurrency.

比特币（BTC）的价格走势历来表现出对全球流动性变化的敏感性，这往往预示着潜在的市场走势。随着比特币继续从近期的低迷中复苏，某些经济因素，例如美联储的量化紧缩（QT）政策和对美国国债需求的减少，开始暗示顶级加密货币可能出现看涨势头。

Bitcoin’s Growth Tends to Follow Global Liquidity Trends

比特币的增长往往遵循全球流动性趋势

One interesting aspect of Bitcoin’s growth is its tendency to follow trends in global liquidity, particularly as measured by M2 (a broad measure of the money supply). A notable example of this occurred after the COVID-19 liquidity injection, which resulted in a surge in Bitcoin’s price.

比特币增长的一个有趣的方面是它倾向于追随全球流动性的趋势，特别是按 M2（货币供应的广泛衡量标准）衡量。一个值得注意的例子发生在 COVID-19 流动性注入之后，导致比特币价格飙升。

Since then, despite the Federal Reserve’s stance on QT, there has been a slight increase in global liquidity, which has positively impacted Bitcoin’s price movements in recent months.

此后，尽管美联储对QT持立场，但全球流动性略有增加，这对近几个月比特币的价格走势产生了积极影响。

Bitcoin’s Price Often Aligns with M2 Day-over-Day (DoD) Metrics

比特币的价格通常与 M2 日间 (DoD) 指标一致

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price movements often seem to align with M2 Day-over-Day (DoD) metrics. For instance, when liquidity increased during the pandemic, we observed a soaring Bitcoin price reaching new all-time highs. This correlation suggests that even a subtle uptick in M2 could trigger an upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.

此外，比特币的价格走势似乎通常与 M2 日环比 (DoD) 指标保持一致。例如，当疫情期间流动性增加时，我们观察到比特币价格飙升，创下历史新高。这种相关性表明，即使 M2 略有上升，也可能引发比特币价格的上涨。

Capital Shifts Towards Riskier Assets Could Boost Bitcoin Demand

资本转向风险较高的资产可能会提振比特币需求

Another factor that could be contributing to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is a shift in capital toward riskier assets. As traditional safe-haven assets, such as U.S. Treasury Securities (UST), become less appealing, we might see a natural flow of institutional and retail investors allocating more funds into Bitcoin, driving its price higher.

另一个可能促成比特币看涨势头的因素是资本转向风险较高的资产。随着美国国债（UST）等传统避险资产的吸引力下降，我们可能会看到机构和散户投资者自然而然地将更多资金配置到比特币中，从而推高其价格。

Although the Federal Reserve continues with its QT policy, which involves reducing the money supply, the drop in UST demand is a potential signal for a broader shift in the market. Should this shift occur, it could provide the momentum Bitcoin needs to break through key resistance levels.

尽管美联储继续实施涉及减少货币供应量的 QT 政策，但 UST 需求的下降是市场发生更广泛转变的潜在信号。如果这种转变发生，它可能会提供比特币突破关键阻力位所需的动力。

Bitcoin Price Movements Influenced by Market Sentiment (Greed & Fear Index)

比特币价格走势受市场情绪影响（贪婪和恐惧指数）

In addition to these economic factors, Bitcoin’s price movements are also significantly influenced by market sentiment, which is reflected in the Greed & Fear Index. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally when the sentiment shifts from extreme fear to either neutral or greedy market conditions.

除了这些经济因素之外，比特币的价格走势还受到市场情绪的显着影响，这反映在贪婪与恐惧指数中。从历史上看，当市场情绪从极度恐惧转变为中性或贪婪的市场条件时，比特币往往会上涨。

Currently, the sentiment is cautiously optimistic, and Bitcoin’s price has been responding positively to this shift. As the market sentiment improves, further liquidity injections could fuel Bitcoin’s growth, propelling its price upward.

目前，市场情绪谨慎乐观，比特币价格也对这一转变做出了积极反应。随着市场情绪的改善，进一步的流动性注入可能会推动比特币的增长，推动其价格上涨。

Social Volume (Mentions of Bitcoin on Social Media) is Trending Up

社交量（社交媒体上提及比特币）呈上升趋势

Finally, another crucial indicator of market engagement is Social Volume, which refers to the frequency with which Bitcoin is mentioned on social media platforms. The more mentions Bitcoin receives, the greater the potential for price action, especially during liquidity-driven price movements.

最后，市场参与度的另一个重要指标是社交量，它指的是比特币在社交媒体平台上被提及的频率。比特币被提及的次数越多，价格走势的潜力就越大，尤其是在流动性驱动的价格波动期间。

Our analysis shows that Bitcoin’s Social Volume is trending upwards, which suggests growing interest, though it is not yet at the euphoric levels seen during previous bull markets. An increase in social engagement would signal a strengthening market and could precede a more significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.

我们的分析显示，比特币的社交量呈上升趋势，这表明人们的兴趣不断增长，尽管尚未达到之前牛市期间的乐观水平。社交参与度的增加将预示着市场的走强，并可能导致比特币价格出现更大幅度的上涨。

Rising Active Addresses on the Bitcoin Network Signal Increasing Demand

比特币网络上活跃地址的增加标志着需求的增加

Moreover, rising active addresses on the Bitcoin network are another sign of increasing demand in the market. As more people engage with the network, the demand for Bitcoin rises, supporting its price further.

此外，比特币网络上活跃地址的增加是市场需求增加的另一个迹象。随着越来越多的人参与网络，对比特币的需求增加，进一步支撑其价格。

Bitcoin’s Sensitivity to Liquidity Remains a Key Factor in Predicting Its Price Movements

比特币对流动性的敏感性仍然是预测其价格走势的关键因素

To sum up, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity remains a critical factor in predicting its price movements. As we continue to observe improving trends in global liquidity, Bitcoin’s price could see sustained growth. The interplay of liquidity, sentiment, and network activity will likely remain crucial for Bitcoin’s market trajectory.

综上所述，比特币对全球流动性的敏感性仍然是预测其价格走势的关键因素。随着我们继续观察全球流动性改善趋势，比特币的价格可能会持续增长。流动性、情绪和网络活动的相互作用可能仍然对比特币的市场轨迹至关重要。

If liquidity continues to increase, coupled with a shift in sentiment toward greater optimism, we could be looking at a significant breakout for Bitcoin. As always, traders and investors should monitor liquidity trends, social activity, and market sentiment closely, as these indicators will shape the next phase of Bitcoin’s bullish potential.

如果流动性继续增加，加上市场情绪转向更加乐观，我们可能会看到比特币出现重大突破。一如既往，交易者和投资者应密切监控流动性趋势、社会活动和市场情绪，因为这些指标将塑造比特币下一阶段的看涨潜力。