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加密貨幣新聞文章

隨著全球流動性動態的轉變,比特幣(BTC)可望重拾看漲勢頭

2025/01/05 07:29

歷史上,全球流動性動態在推動比特幣 (BTC) 價格方面發揮了重要作用,流動性的變化往往預示著

隨著全球流動性動態的轉變,比特幣(BTC)可望重拾看漲勢頭

Bitcoin (BTC) price movements have historically shown sensitivity to shifts in global liquidity, which often foreshadows potential market movements. As Bitcoin continues to stage a recovery from recent downturns, certain economic factors, such as the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy and diminishing demand for U.S. Treasury Securities, are beginning to hint at a possible bullish momentum building up for the top cryptocurrency.

比特幣(BTC)的價格走勢歷來表現出對全球流動性變化的敏感性,這往往預示著潛在的市場趨勢。隨著比特幣繼續從近期的低迷中復甦,某些經濟因素,例如聯準會的量化緊縮(QT)政策和對美國國債需求的減少,開始暗示頂級加密貨幣可能出現看漲勢頭。

Bitcoin’s Growth Tends to Follow Global Liquidity Trends

比特幣的成長往往遵循全球流動性趨勢

One interesting aspect of Bitcoin’s growth is its tendency to follow trends in global liquidity, particularly as measured by M2 (a broad measure of the money supply). A notable example of this occurred after the COVID-19 liquidity injection, which resulted in a surge in Bitcoin’s price.

比特幣成長的一個有趣的方面是它傾向於追隨全球流動性的趨勢,特別是以 M2(貨幣供應的廣泛衡量標準)來衡量。一個值得注意的例子發生在 COVID-19 流動性注入之後,導致比特幣價格飆升。

Since then, despite the Federal Reserve’s stance on QT, there has been a slight increase in global liquidity, which has positively impacted Bitcoin’s price movements in recent months.

此後,儘管聯準會對QT持立場,但全球流動性略有增加,這對近幾個月比特幣的價格走勢產生了積極影響。

Bitcoin’s Price Often Aligns with M2 Day-over-Day (DoD) Metrics

比特幣的價格通常與 M2 日間 (DoD) 指標一致

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price movements often seem to align with M2 Day-over-Day (DoD) metrics. For instance, when liquidity increased during the pandemic, we observed a soaring Bitcoin price reaching new all-time highs. This correlation suggests that even a subtle uptick in M2 could trigger an upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.

此外,比特幣的價格走勢似乎通常與 M2 日環比 (DoD) 指標保持一致。例如,當疫情期間流動性增加時,我們觀察到比特幣價格飆升,創下歷史新高。這種相關性表明,即使 M2 略有上升,也可能引發比特幣價格的上漲。

Capital Shifts Towards Riskier Assets Could Boost Bitcoin Demand

資本轉向風險較高的資產可能提振比特幣需求

Another factor that could be contributing to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is a shift in capital toward riskier assets. As traditional safe-haven assets, such as U.S. Treasury Securities (UST), become less appealing, we might see a natural flow of institutional and retail investors allocating more funds into Bitcoin, driving its price higher.

另一個可能促成比特幣看漲動能的因素是資本轉向風險較高的資產。隨著美國國債(UST)等傳統避險資產的吸引力下降,我們可能會看到機構和散戶投資者自然地將更多資金配置到比特幣中,從而推高其價格。

Although the Federal Reserve continues with its QT policy, which involves reducing the money supply, the drop in UST demand is a potential signal for a broader shift in the market. Should this shift occur, it could provide the momentum Bitcoin needs to break through key resistance levels.

儘管聯準會繼續實施涉及減少貨幣供應量的 QT 政策,但 UST 需求的下降是市場發生更廣泛轉變的潛在信號。如果這種轉變發生,它可能會提供比特幣突破關鍵阻力位所需的動力。

Bitcoin Price Movements Influenced by Market Sentiment (Greed & Fear Index)

比特幣價格走勢受市場情緒影響(貪婪與恐懼指數)

In addition to these economic factors, Bitcoin’s price movements are also significantly influenced by market sentiment, which is reflected in the Greed & Fear Index. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally when the sentiment shifts from extreme fear to either neutral or greedy market conditions.

除了這些經濟因素之外,比特幣的價格走勢也受到市場情緒的顯著影響,這反映在貪婪和恐懼指數中。從歷史上看,當市場情緒從極度恐懼轉變為中性或貪婪的市場條件時,比特幣往往會上漲。

Currently, the sentiment is cautiously optimistic, and Bitcoin’s price has been responding positively to this shift. As the market sentiment improves, further liquidity injections could fuel Bitcoin’s growth, propelling its price upward.

目前,市場情緒謹慎樂觀,比特幣價格也對這一轉變做出了積極反應。隨著市場情緒的改善,進一步的流動性注入可能會推動比特幣的成長,推動其價格上漲。

Social Volume (Mentions of Bitcoin on Social Media) is Trending Up

社群量(社群媒體提及比特幣)呈上升趨勢

Finally, another crucial indicator of market engagement is Social Volume, which refers to the frequency with which Bitcoin is mentioned on social media platforms. The more mentions Bitcoin receives, the greater the potential for price action, especially during liquidity-driven price movements.

最後,市場參與度的另一個重要指標是社群量,它指的是比特幣在社群媒體平台上被提及的頻率。比特幣被提及的次數越多,價格走勢的潛力就越大,尤其是在流動性驅動的價格波動期間。

Our analysis shows that Bitcoin’s Social Volume is trending upwards, which suggests growing interest, though it is not yet at the euphoric levels seen during previous bull markets. An increase in social engagement would signal a strengthening market and could precede a more significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.

我們的分析顯示,比特幣的社交量呈上升趨勢,這表明人們的興趣不斷增長,儘管尚未達到之前牛市期間的樂觀程度。社交參與度的增加將預示著市場的走強,並可能導致比特幣價格更大的上漲。

Rising Active Addresses on the Bitcoin Network Signal Increasing Demand

比特幣網路上活躍地址的增加標誌著需求的增加

Moreover, rising active addresses on the Bitcoin network are another sign of increasing demand in the market. As more people engage with the network, the demand for Bitcoin rises, supporting its price further.

此外,比特幣網路上活躍地址的增加是市場需求增加的另一個跡象。隨著越來越多的人參與網絡,對比特幣的需求增加,進一步支撐其價格。

Bitcoin’s Sensitivity to Liquidity Remains a Key Factor in Predicting Its Price Movements

比特幣對流動性的敏感度仍然是預測其價格走勢的關鍵因素

To sum up, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity remains a critical factor in predicting its price movements. As we continue to observe improving trends in global liquidity, Bitcoin’s price could see sustained growth. The interplay of liquidity, sentiment, and network activity will likely remain crucial for Bitcoin’s market trajectory.

綜上所述,比特幣對全球流動性的敏感度仍是預測其價格走勢的關鍵因素。隨著我們繼續觀察全球流動性改善趨勢,比特幣的價格可能會持續成長。流動性、情緒和網路活動的相互作用可能仍然對比特幣的市場軌跡至關重要。

If liquidity continues to increase, coupled with a shift in sentiment toward greater optimism, we could be looking at a significant breakout for Bitcoin. As always, traders and investors should monitor liquidity trends, social activity, and market sentiment closely, as these indicators will shape the next phase of Bitcoin’s bullish potential.

如果流動性持續增加,加上市場情緒轉向更樂觀,我們可能會看到比特幣出現重大突破。一如既往,交易者和投資者應密切監控流動性趨勢、社會活動和市場情緒,因為這些指標將塑造比特幣下一階段的看漲潛力。

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