比特币 (BTC) NVT Golden Cross 表明近期的飙升可能不会标志着周期峰值

比特币 (BTC) 网络交易价值 (NVT) 金叉表明，该加密货币最近飙升至 93,000 美元以上可能并不标志着本周期的顶峰。

BeInCrypto observed this after analyzing the state of the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) golden cross, following BTC’s recent surge past $93,000. At press time, BTC trades at $90,893.

在 BTC 最近飙升至超过 93,000 美元之后，BeInCrypto 在分析网络交易价值 (NVT) 金叉的状态后观察到了这一点。截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 90,893 美元。

This slight drawdown might not be sustained, as Bitcoin’s price could rally well above its all-time high. Here’s why.

这种小幅下跌可能不会持续，因为比特币的价格可能会远高于历史高点。原因如下。

Data Shows that Bitcoin Remains Undervalued

数据显示比特币仍然被低估

The NVT golden cross is a metric that helps spot tops and bottoms during a cycle. When the NVT golden cross surpasses 2.2 points (red region), it indicates a short-term trend of price overheating, potentially signaling a local top.

NVT 黄金十字是一种有助于发现周期内顶部和底部的指标。当NVT金叉超过2.2点（红色区域）时，表明价格短期趋势过热，可能预示着局部顶部。

Conversely, a drop below -1.6 points (green area) suggests the price is cooling excessively, pointing to a possible local bottom. According to CryptoQuant, the metric’s reading is -3.25 at the time of this writing, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price still has room to appreciate.

相反，跌破 -1.6 点（绿色区域）表明价格过度冷却，表明可能出现局部底部。根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，在撰写本文时，该指标的读数为 -3.25，这表明比特币的价格仍有升值空间。

For instance, when the metric was -2.60 in January, BTC traded below $42,000. About two months later, the coin went on to hit $73,000. Considering historical data and the current position of the metric, it is likely for BTC to climb toward $100,000 before the year closes.

例如，当 1 月份该指标为 -2.60 时，BTC 交易价格低于 42,000 美元。大约两个月后，该代币价格继续上涨至 73,000 美元。考虑到历史数据和该指标的当前位置，比特币很可能在年底前攀升至 10 万美元。

This outlook also aligns with that of Crypto Kaleo, an analyst. According to Kaleo, Bitcoin’s potential rise to $100,000 could bring back retail investors and possibly push the price higher.

这一前景也与分析师 Crypto Kaleo 的观点一致。 Kaleo 表示，比特币可能上涨至 10 万美元，可能会吸引散户投资者回归，并可能推高价格。

“I think Bitcoin surprises everyone when it crosses $100K, sends straight past it and doesn’t look back. It’s been such a mental milestone for so long that it’ll bring retail FOMO back in full force when it happens,” the pseudonymous analyst wrote on Twitter.

“我认为，当比特币突破 10 万美元时，所有人都会感到惊讶，并且直接超越它，不再回头。长期以来，这一直是一个精神上的里程碑，当它发生时，它将让零售业的 FOMO 再次全面爆发，”这位化名分析师在 Twitter 上写道。

Furthermore, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is currently trading above the realized price of Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH). The realized price is the supply-weighted average price that market participants paid for their coins. It serves as an on-chain indicator of potential support or resistance levels.

此外，Glassnode 数据显示，比特币目前的交易价格高于短期持有者（STH）和长期持有者（LTH）的实现价格。实现价格是市场参与者为其代币支付的供应加权平均价格。它作为潜在支撑或阻力水平的链上指标。

Typically, when the realized price is above BTC, the cryptocurrency faces resistance. Hence, the price might find it challenging to climb. However, as seen above, the STH realized price is below BTC’s value at 69,793, indicating that the price could continue to rise.

通常，当实现价格高于 BTC 时，加密货币就会面临阻力。因此，价格可能难以攀升。然而，如上所示，STH 的实现价格低于 BTC 的价值 69,793，表明价格可能会继续上涨。

BTC Price Prediction: Could $104,000 Be Next?

BTC 价格预测：下一个价格会是 104,000 美元吗？

On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin has formed a bullish flag. A bull flag is a bullish chart pattern characterized by two rallies separated by a short consolidation phase. The flagpole forms during a sharp upward price spike as buyers overpower sellers.

在 3 日图表上，比特币已形成看涨旗形。牛旗是一种看涨图表模式，其特征是两次反弹，中间有短暂的盘整阶段。当买家压倒卖家时，旗杆在价格急剧上涨期间形成。

This is followed by a retracement phase, during which price movement creates parallel upper and lower trendlines, forming the flag shape. Considering the current outlook, Bitcoin’s price could rally toward $104,228 as long as buying pressure increases.

接下来是回调阶段，在此期间价格走势形成平行的上方和下方趋势线，形成旗形。考虑到当前的前景，只要购买压力增加，比特币的价格就可能上涨至 104,228 美元。

However, if the Bitcoin NVT golden cross hits an extremely high value, that could mark a local top for BTC. In that case, the coin’s price could face a notable correction.

然而，如果比特币 NVT 金叉达到极高的价值，这可能标志着 BTC 的局部顶部。在这种情况下，代币的价格可能会面临显着的调整。