比特幣 (BTC) NVT Golden Cross 表明近期的飆升可能不會標誌著週期峰值

比特幣 (BTC) 網路交易價值 (NVT) 金叉表明，該加密貨幣最近飆升至 93,000 美元以上可能並不標誌著本週期的頂峰。

BeInCrypto observed this after analyzing the state of the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) golden cross, following BTC’s recent surge past $93,000. At press time, BTC trades at $90,893.

在 BTC 最近飆升至超過 93,000 美元之後，BeInCrypto 在分析網路交易價值 (NVT) 金叉的狀態後觀察到了這一點。截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 90,893 美元。

This slight drawdown might not be sustained, as Bitcoin’s price could rally well above its all-time high. Here’s why.

這種小幅下跌可能不會持續，因為比特幣的價格可能會遠高於歷史高點。原因如下。

Data Shows that Bitcoin Remains Undervalued

數據顯示比特幣仍被低估

The NVT golden cross is a metric that helps spot tops and bottoms during a cycle. When the NVT golden cross surpasses 2.2 points (red region), it indicates a short-term trend of price overheating, potentially signaling a local top.

NVT 黃金十字是一種有助於發現週期內頂部和底部的指標。當NVT金叉超過2.2點（紅色區域）時，表示價格短期趨勢過熱，可能預示局部頂部。

Conversely, a drop below -1.6 points (green area) suggests the price is cooling excessively, pointing to a possible local bottom. According to CryptoQuant, the metric’s reading is -3.25 at the time of this writing, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price still has room to appreciate.

相反，跌破 -1.6 點（綠色區域）表示價格過度冷卻，表示可能出現局部底部。根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，截至撰寫本文時，該指標的讀數為 -3.25，這表明比特幣的價格仍有升值空間。

For instance, when the metric was -2.60 in January, BTC traded below $42,000. About two months later, the coin went on to hit $73,000. Considering historical data and the current position of the metric, it is likely for BTC to climb toward $100,000 before the year closes.

例如，當 1 月該指標為 -2.60 時，BTC 交易價格低於 42,000 美元。大約兩個月後，該代幣價格繼續上漲至 73,000 美元。考慮到歷史數據和該指標的當前位置，比特幣很可能在年底前攀升至 10 萬美元。

This outlook also aligns with that of Crypto Kaleo, an analyst. According to Kaleo, Bitcoin’s potential rise to $100,000 could bring back retail investors and possibly push the price higher.

這一前景也與分析師 Crypto Kaleo 的觀點一致。 Kaleo 表示，比特幣可能上漲至 10 萬美元，可能吸引散戶投資者回歸，並可能推高價格。

“I think Bitcoin surprises everyone when it crosses $100K, sends straight past it and doesn’t look back. It’s been such a mental milestone for so long that it’ll bring retail FOMO back in full force when it happens,” the pseudonymous analyst wrote on Twitter.

「我認為，當比特幣突破 10 萬美元時，所有人都會感到驚訝，並且直接超越它，不再回頭。長期以來，這一直是一個精神上的里程碑，當它發生時，它將讓零售業的 FOMO 再次全面爆發，」這位化名分析師在 Twitter 上寫道。

Furthermore, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin is currently trading above the realized price of Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH). The realized price is the supply-weighted average price that market participants paid for their coins. It serves as an on-chain indicator of potential support or resistance levels.

此外，Glassnode 數據顯示，比特幣目前的交易價格高於短期持有者（STH）和長期持有者（LTH）的實現價格。實現價格是市場參與者為其代幣支付的供應加權平均價格。它作為潛在支撐或阻力水平的鏈上指標。

Typically, when the realized price is above BTC, the cryptocurrency faces resistance. Hence, the price might find it challenging to climb. However, as seen above, the STH realized price is below BTC’s value at 69,793, indicating that the price could continue to rise.

通常，當實現價格高於 BTC 時，加密貨幣就會面臨阻力。因此，價格可能難以攀升。然而，如上所示，STH 的實現價格低於 BTC 的價值 69,793，表明價格可能會繼續上漲。

BTC Price Prediction: Could $104,000 Be Next?

BTC 價格預測：下一個價格會是 104,000 美元嗎？

On the 3-day chart, Bitcoin has formed a bullish flag. A bull flag is a bullish chart pattern characterized by two rallies separated by a short consolidation phase. The flagpole forms during a sharp upward price spike as buyers overpower sellers.

在 3 日圖表上，比特幣已形成看漲旗形。牛旗是一種看漲圖表模式，其特徵是兩次反彈，中間有短暫的盤整階段。當買家壓倒賣家時，旗桿在價格急劇上漲期間形成。

This is followed by a retracement phase, during which price movement creates parallel upper and lower trendlines, forming the flag shape. Considering the current outlook, Bitcoin’s price could rally toward $104,228 as long as buying pressure increases.

接下來是回檔階段，在此期間價格走勢形成平行上方和下方的趨勢線，形成旗形。考慮到當前的前景，只要購買壓力增加，比特幣的價格就可能上漲至 104,228 美元。

However, if the Bitcoin NVT golden cross hits an extremely high value, that could mark a local top for BTC. In that case, the coin’s price could face a notable correction.

然而，如果比特幣 NVT 金叉達到極高的價值，這可能標誌著 BTC 的局部頂部。在這種情況下，代幣的價格可能會面臨顯著的調整。