比特币（BTC）模仿2023年8月的配置，在公牛运行前跌至$ 85K？

比特币市场的平静时期通常具有欺骗性。的确，当波动率崩溃时，它让位于残酷的振幅运动，能够

The calm periods in the bitcoin market are often deceptive. Indeed, when volatility collapses, it gives way to brutal amplitude movements, capable of surprising both seasoned investors and short-term speculators. Today, several technical indicators suggest a scenario similar to that of August 2023: a temporary drop in BTC before a major rebound that could bring it up to $85,000.

比特币市场的平静时期通常具有欺骗性。的确，当波动率崩溃时，它让位于残酷的振幅运动，能够使经验丰富的投资者和短期投机者感到惊讶。如今，一些技术指标表明，一种类似于2023年8月的方案：BTC暂时下降，然后重大反弹可能会带来高达85,000美元。

An analysis conducted by CryptoQuant reveals that current market conditions resemble a past configuration where prolonged stagnation led to massive liquidation of positions before paving the way for a strong bullish trend.

CryptoQuant进行的一项分析表明，当前的市场状况类似于过去的配置，在这种配置中，延长停滞导致了大量清算位置，然后为强烈的看涨趋势铺平了道路。

A market waiting for clear direction

等待明确方向的市场

The current evolution of bitcoin is marked by a lasting lateralization, characterized by reduced volatility and a lack of outright trend. Thus, the choppiness index, an indicator that measures the level of indecision in the markets, shows high levels on daily and weekly charts. According to analyst Percival from CryptoQuant, this situation indicates that the market is at a crossroads and a sharp movement is imminent.

比特币的当前演变以持久的侧向化为特征，其特征是波动性降低和缺乏彻底的趋势。因此，该指标（衡量市场中犹豫不决的水平）的指标显示了每日和每周图表的高水平。据CryptoFunt的分析师Percival称，这种情况表明市场处于十字路口，即将进行急剧的运动。

“Our Choppiness Index is unstable (62 and 72 respectively), which means it must inevitably enter a trend, suggesting a more aggressive movement in one direction or another,” Percival noted in his analysis.

Percival在他的分析中指出：“我们的斩波性指数分别不稳定（分别为62和72），这意味着它必须不可避免地会进入趋势，这表明朝一个方向或另一个方向进行更具侵略性的运动。”

Last year, a similar configuration preceded a correction move before a bullish recovery. In August 0f 2023, volatility had surged violently, sweeping away traders’ leveraged positions before allowing for a prolonged increase in BTC’s price. Once again, the gaps between the highs and lows of the consolidation range reach 16 %, a signal that reinforces the possibility of an impending acceleration phase.

去年，在看涨恢复之前，类似的配置是在校正之前进行的。在2023年8月0日，波动性猛烈，在允许BTC价格长期上涨之前扫除了交易者的杠杆头寸。再次，合并范围的高和低点之间的间隙达到16％，该信号加强了即将加速阶段的可能性。

A jump to $85,000 before a new rally?

在新拉力赛之前跳到$ 85,000？

If the hypothesis of a false bearish breakout materializes, two technical levels are particularly monitored by observers. The first key threshold is at $92,000, corresponding to the average cost of short-term holders (STH). This level has historically served as support in past bullish cycles. However, in case of a breach, the next stabilization zone would be around $85,000, an area where the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) could offer a bounce point.

如果虚假看跌突破的假设实现了，则观察者特别监测了两个技术级别。第一个关键门槛为92,000美元，对应于短期持有人（STH）的平均成本。从历史上看，这一水平一直是过去的看涨周期的支持。但是，如果发生违规，下一个稳定区将约为85,000美元，该区域为200天的指数移动平均线（EMA）可以提供一个弹跳点。

According to Percival, the market could seek to liquidate speculative positions before a new bullish phase.

根据Percival的说法，市场可能会在新的看涨阶段之前清算投机职位。

“The possibility of deceptive movements before the bull run is high. Many traders are positioned in these areas, and the market has a tendency to liquidate these positions before returning to its expected course,” Percival stated in a post on February 17, 2025. A classic maneuver by markets that tends to trap overly impatient investors, before propelling BTC to new heights.

“在公牛奔跑之前，欺骗性运动的可能性很高。珀西瓦尔（Percival）在2025年2月17日的帖子中说：“许多交易者都位于这些领域，市场倾向于在返回预期的过程之前清算这些头寸。”在将BTC推向新高度之前。

Despite these correction prospects, the underlying signals remain largely bullish. The structure of the Bitcoin market has never been so strong, with increasing support from institutional investors and a constantly rising demand. Moreover, the SOPR of STH, an indicator that measures profitability of transactions by short-term holders, shows levels close to those observed before previous bullish rallies.

尽管有这些纠正的前景，但基本信号仍然在很大程度上看涨。比特币市场的结构从未如此强大，随着机构投资者的支持越来越多，需求不断上升。此外，STH的SOPR是衡量短期持有人的交易盈利能力的指标，显示了与以前的看涨集会前观察到的水平。

If selling pressure were to cause a temporary decline, long-term investors might see it as an opportunity for accumulation before a potential new all-time high. However, caution remains essential: markets tend to surprise, and a violent breakout could create momentary panic before buyers return. In this context, the evolution of the derivatives market, leveraged positions, and overall investor sentiment will play a decisive role in confirming the next major trend of bitcoin.

如果销售压力会导致暂时下降，那么长期投资者可能会认为这是在潜在的历史最高水平之前积累的机会。但是，谨慎仍然是必不可少的：市场往往会惊讶，暴力突破可能会在买家返回之前引起瞬间的恐慌。在这种情况下，衍生品市场，杠杆位置和整体投资者情绪的演变将在确认比特币的下一个主要趋势方面发挥决定性作用。