比特幣（BTC）模仿2023年8月的配置，在公牛運行前跌至$ 85K？

比特幣市場的平靜時期通常具有欺騙性。的確，當波動率崩潰時，它讓位於殘酷的振幅運動，能夠

The calm periods in the bitcoin market are often deceptive. Indeed, when volatility collapses, it gives way to brutal amplitude movements, capable of surprising both seasoned investors and short-term speculators. Today, several technical indicators suggest a scenario similar to that of August 2023: a temporary drop in BTC before a major rebound that could bring it up to $85,000.

比特幣市場的平靜時期通常具有欺騙性。的確，當波動率崩潰時，它讓位於殘酷的振幅運動，能夠使經驗豐富的投資者和短期投機者感到驚訝。如今，一些技術指標表明，一種類似於2023年8月的方案：BTC暫時下降，然後重大反彈可能會帶來高達85,000美元。

An analysis conducted by CryptoQuant reveals that current market conditions resemble a past configuration where prolonged stagnation led to massive liquidation of positions before paving the way for a strong bullish trend.

CryptoQuant進行的一項分析表明，當前的市場狀況類似於過去的配置，在這種配置中，延長停滯導致了大量清算位置，然後為強烈的看漲趨勢鋪平了道路。

A market waiting for clear direction

等待明確方向的市場

The current evolution of bitcoin is marked by a lasting lateralization, characterized by reduced volatility and a lack of outright trend. Thus, the choppiness index, an indicator that measures the level of indecision in the markets, shows high levels on daily and weekly charts. According to analyst Percival from CryptoQuant, this situation indicates that the market is at a crossroads and a sharp movement is imminent.

比特幣的當前演變以持久的側向化為特徵，其特徵是波動性降低和缺乏徹底的趨勢。因此，該指標（衡量市場中猶豫不決的水平）的指標顯示了每日和每週圖表的高水平。據CryptoFunt的分析師Percival稱，這種情況表明市場處於十字路口，即將進行急劇的運動。

“Our Choppiness Index is unstable (62 and 72 respectively), which means it must inevitably enter a trend, suggesting a more aggressive movement in one direction or another,” Percival noted in his analysis.

Percival在他的分析中指出：“我們的斬波性指數分別不穩定（分別為62和72），這意味著它必須不可避免地會進入趨勢，這表明朝一個方向或另一個方向進行更具侵略性的運動。”

Last year, a similar configuration preceded a correction move before a bullish recovery. In August 0f 2023, volatility had surged violently, sweeping away traders’ leveraged positions before allowing for a prolonged increase in BTC’s price. Once again, the gaps between the highs and lows of the consolidation range reach 16 %, a signal that reinforces the possibility of an impending acceleration phase.

去年，在看漲恢復之前，類似的配置是在校正之前進行的。在2023年8月0日，波動性猛烈，在允許BTC價格長期上漲之前掃除了交易者的槓桿頭寸。再次，合併範圍的高和低點之間的間隙達到16％，該信號加強了即將加速階段的可能性。

A jump to $85,000 before a new rally?

在新拉力賽之前跳到$ 85,000？

If the hypothesis of a false bearish breakout materializes, two technical levels are particularly monitored by observers. The first key threshold is at $92,000, corresponding to the average cost of short-term holders (STH). This level has historically served as support in past bullish cycles. However, in case of a breach, the next stabilization zone would be around $85,000, an area where the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) could offer a bounce point.

如果虛假看跌突破的假設實現了，則觀察者特別監測了兩個技術級別。第一個關鍵門檻為92,000美元，對應於短期持有人（STH）的平均成本。從歷史上看，這一水平一直是過去的看漲週期的支持。但是，如果發生違規，下一個穩定區將約為85,000美元，該區域為200天的指數移動平均線（EMA）可以提供一個彈跳點。

According to Percival, the market could seek to liquidate speculative positions before a new bullish phase.

根據Percival的說法，市場可能會在新的看漲階段之前清算投機職位。

“The possibility of deceptive movements before the bull run is high. Many traders are positioned in these areas, and the market has a tendency to liquidate these positions before returning to its expected course,” Percival stated in a post on February 17, 2025. A classic maneuver by markets that tends to trap overly impatient investors, before propelling BTC to new heights.

“在公牛奔跑之前，欺騙性運動的可能性很高。珀西瓦爾（Percival）在2025年2月17日的帖子中說：“許多交易者都位於這些領域，市場傾向於在返回預期的過程之前清算這些頭寸。”在將BTC推向新高度之前。

Despite these correction prospects, the underlying signals remain largely bullish. The structure of the Bitcoin market has never been so strong, with increasing support from institutional investors and a constantly rising demand. Moreover, the SOPR of STH, an indicator that measures profitability of transactions by short-term holders, shows levels close to those observed before previous bullish rallies.

儘管有這些糾正的前景，但基本信號仍然在很大程度上看漲。比特幣市場的結構從未如此強大，隨著機構投資者的支持越來越多，需求不斷上升。此外，STH的SOPR是衡量短期持有人的交易盈利能力的指標，顯示了與以前的看漲集會前觀察到的水平。

If selling pressure were to cause a temporary decline, long-term investors might see it as an opportunity for accumulation before a potential new all-time high. However, caution remains essential: markets tend to surprise, and a violent breakout could create momentary panic before buyers return. In this context, the evolution of the derivatives market, leveraged positions, and overall investor sentiment will play a decisive role in confirming the next major trend of bitcoin.

如果銷售壓力會導致暫時下降，那麼長期投資者可能會認為這是在潛在的歷史最高水平之前積累的機會。但是，謹慎仍然是必不可少的：市場往往會驚訝，暴力突破可能會在買家返回之前引起瞬間的恐慌。在這種情況下，衍生品市場，槓杆位置和整體投資者情緒的演變將在確認比特幣的下一個主要趨勢方面發揮決定性作用。