比特幣（BTC）價格預測：供應問題和技術分析

比特幣在本週以95,000美元的關鍵水平獲得支持後，在撰寫本週的交易中漲幅為98357。

Bitcoin price regained momentum after finding support at the key $95k level this week before rising to trade at 98357 at the time of writing. The recent consolidation suggests that Bitcoin could be ready for its next big rally, with a move higher looking appealing once more.

比特幣的價格在本週以95,000美元的關鍵水平找到支持後恢復了動力，然後在寫作時在98357上漲。最近的合併表明，比特幣可以為下一個大集會做好準備，外觀更具吸引力。

Crypto Heatmap, February 20, 2025

加密熱圖，2025年2月20日

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

資料來源：TradingView（單擊放大）

ETF Flows

ETF流

Even though Bitcoin’s price fell from its all-time high on January 20, data from CoinShares shows that spot ETFs tied to Bitcoin have still attracted a huge $5.6 billion in new investments.

即使比特幣的價格從1月20日的歷史最高高價下降，但Coinshares的數據表明，與比特幣相關的現貨ETF仍然吸引了56億美元的新投資。

However, over the last few days we have seen a consistent amount of net outflows with figures of 60.7, 64.1 and 94.6 million USD in net outflows since Tuesday.

但是，在過去的幾天中，自周二以來，我們看到了一致的淨流出，淨流出的數字為60.7、64.1和9460萬美元。

Source: Farside Investors

資料來源：Farside Investors

The Week on Chain – Glassnode Data Reveals Downside Risks

鏈上的一周 - 玻璃節數據揭示了下行風險

Money flowing into the market is slowing down, and trading in derivatives is dropping. The way short-term investors are buying now looks similar to May 2021, which was a tough time for the market.

流入市場的資金正在放緩，衍生品的交易正在下降。現在，短期投資者購買的方式看起來與2021年5月相似，這是市場的艱難時期。

Overall, in recent weeks markets are seeing the momentum of capital inflows has declined for all digital assets. This signals a meaningful cooling down in speculative appetite and alludes to a potential for capital rotation out of riskier assets on the road ahead.

總體而言，最近幾週，市場看到所有數字資產的資本流入勢頭都在下降。這表明人們對投機性食慾有意義的冷卻，並暗示了從前方道路上較風險的資產中旋轉資本的潛力。

This is in line with the overall market sentiment at the moment.Although US stock markets continue to hold near highs, the rise of Gold is a clear sign that markets remain nervous as haven demand continues to propel the precious metal to fresh highs.

這與目前的總體市場情緒一致。儘管美國股市繼續保持接近高點，但黃金的興起表明，隨著避風港需求繼續推動貴金屬的新鮮高點，市場仍然很緊張。

Momentum in spot markets is slowing down, and less money is going into perpetual futures. This drop in demand has caused a big decline in open interest across major assets, showing less speculative trading and lower profits from cash-and-carry strategies.

現貨市場的動力正在放慢腳步，而越來越多的錢進入了永恆的未來。這種需求下降導致主要資產的開放興趣大幅下降，表現出較少的投機交易和現金和攜帶策略的利潤較低。

The drop in open interest shows that traders are cutting back on risky leveraged bets, likely because the market feels weaker and less certain. The biggest decline is in Memecoins, which usually attract short-term traders but quickly lose popularity when confidence fades.

開放興趣的下降表明，交易者正在削減風險的槓桿賭注，這可能是因為市場感覺較弱且不確定性。最大的下降是Memecoins，通常會吸引短期交易者，但是當信心消失時，很快就會失去知名度。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

Microstrategy or ‘Strategy’ Gearing Up for Fresh Buys?

MicroStrategy或“策略”為新鮮購買嗎？

MicroStrategy or as we should get used to calling them, Strategy didn’t buy any Bitcoin last week, keeping its total at 478,740 BTC for the second time.

MicroStrategy或由於我們應該習慣打電話給它們，策略上週沒有購買任何比特幣，因此第二次將其總數保持在478,740 BTC。

However, MicroStrategy has hinted at a new Bitcoin purchase with its recent fundraising effort. On February 20, the company announced it had successfully priced a $2 billion offering of 0% convertible notes due in 2030. The deal, set to close on February 21, also gives buyers the option to purchase an extra $300 million in notes.

但是，MicroStrategy通過籌款活動提出了新的比特幣購買。 2月20日，該公司宣布已成功撥出了20億美元的售價為2030年的0％可轉換票據。該交易定於2月21日結束，還使買家可以選擇購買3億美元的票據。

Will such a purchase prove to be the catalyst for another bull run?

這樣的購買會證明是另一次公牛跑步的催化劑嗎？

Technical Analysis BTC/USD

技術分析BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from a technical standpoint on the daily timeframe sees price eyeing a breakout following a period of consolidation.

從每日時間範圍的技術角度來看，比特幣（BTC/USD）看到了一段時間的固結後的價格。

The consolidation between 94000 and 100000 has lasted for the last two weeks with Tuesday seeing price dip to a low of 93340 before reclaiming the 95000 handle.

在過去的兩個星期中，94000和100000之間的合併持續了，而周二的價格下跌至93340，然後再收回95000的手柄。

Thursday daily candle did close back above the 100-day MA resting at 97899 but there are significant hurdles ahead. The 50-day MA rests at 99059, just shy of the psychological 100000 level.

週四每日蠟燭確實在97899的100天MA休息之上倒閉，但即將出現巨大的障礙。 50天的MA位於99059，距離心理100000級別。

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, February 20, 2024

比特幣（BTC/USD）每日圖表，2024年2月20日

Dropping down to a two-hour chart and there may be scope for a short term pullback. Significant support rests below current price as we have the 50,100 and 200-day MA converging between the 96000-97000 handles.

下降到兩個小時的圖表，可能會有短期回調的範圍。由於96000-97000把手之間的50,100和200天MA聚合，因此大量支持基於當前價格。

This makes this a key area of confluence which could serve as a base for a move toward the 100000 psychological level and beyond.

這使它成為匯合的關鍵領域，可以作為朝著100000心理層面及以後發展的基礎。

Immeidate support rests at 97000 before the key 95000 handle comes back into focus.

在密鑰95000手柄重新焦點之前，Immeidate支撐在97000處休息。

Resistance rests at 99059 and 100000 before markets will turn their attention toward the 102157 resistance handle.

電阻在99059和100000處於市場將注意力轉向102157電阻手柄之前。

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Two-Hour (H2) Chart, February 20, 2024

比特幣（BTC/USD）兩個小時（H2）圖表，2024年2月20日

Support

支持

Resistance

反抗