比特币（BTC）价格预测：供应问题和技术分析

比特币在本周以95,000美元的关键水平获得支持后，在撰写本周的交易中涨幅为98357。

Bitcoin price regained momentum after finding support at the key $95k level this week before rising to trade at 98357 at the time of writing. The recent consolidation suggests that Bitcoin could be ready for its next big rally, with a move higher looking appealing once more.

比特币的价格在本周以95,000美元的关键水平找到支持后恢复了动力，然后在写作时在98357上涨。最近的合并表明，比特币可以为下一个大集会做好准备，外观更具吸引力。

Crypto Heatmap, February 20, 2025

加密热图，2025年2月20日

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

资料来源：TradingView（单击放大）

ETF Flows

ETF流

Even though Bitcoin’s price fell from its all-time high on January 20, data from CoinShares shows that spot ETFs tied to Bitcoin have still attracted a huge $5.6 billion in new investments.

即使比特币的价格从1月20日的历史最高高价下降，但Coinshares的数据表明，与比特币相关的现货ETF仍然吸引了56亿美元的新投资。

However, over the last few days we have seen a consistent amount of net outflows with figures of 60.7, 64.1 and 94.6 million USD in net outflows since Tuesday.

但是，在过去的几天中，自周二以来，我们看到了一致的净流出，净流出的数字为60.7、64.1和9460万美元。

Source: Farside Investors

资料来源：Farside Investors

The Week on Chain – Glassnode Data Reveals Downside Risks

链上的一周 - 玻璃节数据揭示了下行风险

Money flowing into the market is slowing down, and trading in derivatives is dropping. The way short-term investors are buying now looks similar to May 2021, which was a tough time for the market.

流入市场的资金正在放缓，衍生品的交易正在下降。现在，短期投资者购买的方式看起来与2021年5月相似，这是市场的艰难时期。

Overall, in recent weeks markets are seeing the momentum of capital inflows has declined for all digital assets. This signals a meaningful cooling down in speculative appetite and alludes to a potential for capital rotation out of riskier assets on the road ahead.

总体而言，最近几周，市场看到所有数字资产的资本流入势头都在下降。这表明人们对投机性食欲有意义的冷却，并暗示了从前方道路上较风险的资产中旋转资本的潜力。

This is in line with the overall market sentiment at the moment.Although US stock markets continue to hold near highs, the rise of Gold is a clear sign that markets remain nervous as haven demand continues to propel the precious metal to fresh highs.

这与目前的总体市场情绪一致。尽管美国股市继续保持接近高点，但黄金的兴起表明，随着避风港需求继续推动贵金属的新鲜高点，市场仍然很紧张。

Momentum in spot markets is slowing down, and less money is going into perpetual futures. This drop in demand has caused a big decline in open interest across major assets, showing less speculative trading and lower profits from cash-and-carry strategies.

现货市场的动力正在放慢脚步，而越来越多的钱进入了永恒的未来。这种需求下降导致主要资产的开放兴趣大幅下降，表现出较少的投机交易和现金和携带策略的利润较低。

The drop in open interest shows that traders are cutting back on risky leveraged bets, likely because the market feels weaker and less certain. The biggest decline is in Memecoins, which usually attract short-term traders but quickly lose popularity when confidence fades.

开放兴趣的下降表明，交易者正在削减风险的杠杆赌注，这可能是因为市场感觉较弱且不确定性。最大的下降是Memecoins，通常会吸引短期交易者，但是当信心消失时，很快就会失去知名度。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

Microstrategy or ‘Strategy’ Gearing Up for Fresh Buys?

MicroStrategy或“策略”为新鲜购买吗？

MicroStrategy or as we should get used to calling them, Strategy didn’t buy any Bitcoin last week, keeping its total at 478,740 BTC for the second time.

MicroStrategy或由于我们应该习惯打电话给它们，策略上周没有购买任何比特币，因此第二次将其总数保持在478,740 BTC。

However, MicroStrategy has hinted at a new Bitcoin purchase with its recent fundraising effort. On February 20, the company announced it had successfully priced a $2 billion offering of 0% convertible notes due in 2030. The deal, set to close on February 21, also gives buyers the option to purchase an extra $300 million in notes.

但是，MicroStrategy通过筹款活动提出了新的比特币购买。 2月20日，该公司宣布已成功拨出了20亿美元的售价为2030年的0％可转换票据。该交易定于2月21日结束，还使买家可以选择购买3亿美元的票据。

Will such a purchase prove to be the catalyst for another bull run?

这样的购买会证明是另一次公牛跑步的催化剂吗？

Technical Analysis BTC/USD

技术分析BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) from a technical standpoint on the daily timeframe sees price eyeing a breakout following a period of consolidation.

从每日时间范围的技术角度来看，比特币（BTC/USD）看到了一段时间的固结后的价格。

The consolidation between 94000 and 100000 has lasted for the last two weeks with Tuesday seeing price dip to a low of 93340 before reclaiming the 95000 handle.

在过去的两个星期中，94000和100000之间的合并持续了，而周二的价格下跌至93340，然后再收回95000的手柄。

Thursday daily candle did close back above the 100-day MA resting at 97899 but there are significant hurdles ahead. The 50-day MA rests at 99059, just shy of the psychological 100000 level.

周四每日蜡烛确实在97899的100天MA休息之上倒闭，但即将出现巨大的障碍。 50天的MA位于99059，距离心理100000级别。

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, February 20, 2024

比特币（BTC/USD）每日图表，2024年2月20日

Dropping down to a two-hour chart and there may be scope for a short term pullback. Significant support rests below current price as we have the 50,100 and 200-day MA converging between the 96000-97000 handles.

下降到两个小时的图表，可能会有短期回调的范围。由于96000-97000把手之间的50,100和200天MA聚合，因此大量支持基于当前价格。

This makes this a key area of confluence which could serve as a base for a move toward the 100000 psychological level and beyond.

这使它成为汇合的关键领域，可以作为朝着100000心理层面及以后发展的基础。

Immeidate support rests at 97000 before the key 95000 handle comes back into focus.

在密钥95000手柄重新焦点之前，Immeidate支撑在97000处休息。

Resistance rests at 99059 and 100000 before markets will turn their attention toward the 102157 resistance handle.

电阻在99059和100000处于市场将注意力转向102157电阻手柄之前。

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Two-Hour (H2) Chart, February 20, 2024

比特币（BTC/USD）两个小时（H2）图表，2024年2月20日

Support

支持

Resistance

反抗