比特币（BTC）市场显示出温和的反弹，BTC价格在狭窄范围内波动

在过去的24小时内，加密货币市场表现出温和的反弹，比特币价格在狭窄的范围内波动约为87400美元，以太坊略微纠正至2070美元。

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market showed a mild rebound, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating in a narrow range around $87,400 and Ethereum slightly correcting to $2,070. Among the mainstream currencies, Solana (SOL) rose 2% against the trend, reaching a high of $146 during the day.

在过去的24小时内，加密货币市场表现出温和的反弹，比特币价格在狭窄的范围内波动约为87,400美元，以太坊略微纠正至2,070美元。在主流货币中，索拉纳（Sol）（SOL）违反了2％的趋势，白天高达146美元。

As of March 26, Beijing time, the total market value of cryptocurrencies rose slightly by 0.4% to US$2.87 trillion, and the market sentiment index (Fear & Greed Index) fell to 34, indicating that investors remain cautious.

截至3月26日，北京时间，加密货币的总市场价值略有0.4％，至2.87万亿美元，市场情绪指数（Fear＆Greed指数）下降到34，表明投资者仍然谨慎。

On the news front, the former "Wall Street meme" stock and game retailer GameStop (NYSE:GME) officially announced on the 25th local time that its board of directors unanimously passed a resolution to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet reserves. GameStop surged 7% in after-hours trading in the U.S. stock market, with its share price rising to $27.19.

在新闻方面，前“华尔街模因”股票和游戏零售商GameStop（NYSE：GME）在第25个当地时间正式宣布，其董事会一致通过了一项决议，将比特币包括在资产负债表储备中。 GameStop在美国股市的下班后交易中飙升了7％，其股价上涨至27.19美元。

In fact, there were signs of this decision: two months ago, after the photo of GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen meeting with BTC bull Michael Saylor leaked, its major shareholder Strive Asset Management (which holds a 0.4% stake in GameStop) publicly called on the company to follow MicroStrategy's currency holding strategy. Strive CEO Matt Cole said at the time: "We believe that GameStop can improve its financial situation by purchasing Bitcoin, which is a strategic configuration."

实际上，有这一决定的迹象：两个月前，GameStop首席执行官Ryan Cohen与BTC Bull Michael Saylor泄露的照片后，其主要股东Artive Asset Management（在GameStop中持有0.4％的股份），公开呼吁公司遵循MicroStrategy的货币持有策略。战利品首席执行官马特·科尔（Matt Cole）当时表示：“我们相信GameStop可以通过购买比特币来改善其财务状况，这是一种战略配置。”

Is BTC coming out of adjustment?

BTC是否从调整中出来？

On-chain data reveals new trends in capital flows. CryptoQuant data shows that despite the stable price trend of Bitcoin, on-chain data reveals key signals:

链上数据揭示了资本流的新趋势。加密数据表明，尽管比特币的价格趋势稳定，链上数据仍显示关键信号：

Institutional capital migration: In the past 24 hours, there were 17 BTC transfers exceeding US$100 million, and the total on-chain transfer volume increased by 268%, reaching a three-month high.

机构资本迁移：在过去的24小时内，有17个BTC转移超过1亿美元，总链转移量增加了268％，达到了三个月的高点。

Exchange flow: Coinbase had the highest positive premium of 0.3%. At the same time, the exchange's BTC reserves fell by 1%, and about 12,000 bitcoins flowed into cold wallets. This "low volatility, high turnover" trend suggests that institutional investors may be carrying out large-scale asset custody transfers.

交换流：Coinbase的正溢价最高0.3％。同时，交易所的BTC储量下降了1％，约有12,000比特币流入冷钱包。这种“低波动率，高离职率”的趋势表明，机构投资者可能正在进行大规模的资产保管转移。

Derivatives market balance: perpetual contract funding rate returned to the neutral range of 0.01%, and the option volatility surface showed that the put/call ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.85, suggesting a slight recovery in bullish sentiment.

衍生品市场平衡：永久合同融资率返回到中性范围为0.01％，并且期权波动率表面表明，PUT/CALL率（PCR）降至0.85，表明看涨的情绪略有恢复。

It is worth noting that the Bitcoin unrealized net profit and loss indicator (NUPL) has fallen from 0.68 last week to 0.55, indicating that some short-term holders have begun to take profits. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has increased by 12 against the trend, indicating that whale accounts are still quietly accumulating funds.

值得注意的是，比特币未实现的净利润指标（NUPL）从上周的0.68下降到0.55，这表明一些短期持有人已经开始获得利润。玻璃节数据显示，持有1,000多个BTC的地址数量增加了12幅趋势，这表明鲸鱼帐户仍在悄悄地积累了资金。

Hani Abuagla, senior analyst at XTB MENA, believes that Bitcoin is emerging from the second deepest adjustment in this cycle. If the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the easing of trade policy work together, the possibility of breaking through the $100,000 mark in the spring still exists.

XTB MENA的高级分析师Hani Abuagla认为，比特币从本周期中第二深的调整中脱颖而出。如果对美联储削减的税率和贸易政策的降低期望共同起作用，那么在春季中闯入100,000美元的可能性仍然存在。

Macro variables: PCE data becomes a key touchstone

宏变量：PCE数据成为钥匙试金石

The U.S. core PCE price index for February, which will be released on Friday (March 28), may become a sticky variable that breaks the market balance. As the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to, the market expects the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE to rise slightly from 2.6% in January to 2.7%. If the data exceeds expectations, it may further postpone the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.

2月的美国核心PCE价格指数将于周五（3月28日）发布，可能会成为破坏市场平衡的粘性变量。由于通货膨胀指标表明美联储对关注最大的关注，市场预计，核心PCE的同比增长率将从1月份的2.6％略微上升到2.7％。如果数据超出了预期，则可能会推迟市场对削减利率的期望。

The current CME FedWatch tool shows that traders' expectations for the Fed's rate cuts this year have narrowed to 50-75 basis points, and the first rate cut may be postponed to the third quarter. If the PCE data reinforces the "inflation stickiness" narrative, U.S. Treasury yields may rise again, and a stronger dollar may put short-term pressure on risky assets.

当前的CME FedWatch工具表明，交易者对今年美联储降低税率的期望已缩小到50-75个基点，而第一级削减可能会推迟到第三季度。如果PCE数据加强了“通货膨胀粘性”的叙述，那么美国国库的收益率可能会再次上升，并且更强劲的美元可能会对风险资产造成短期压力。

In the current market context, slight fluctuations in inflation data may indirectly affect the direction of the crypto market by changing market liquidity expectations.

在当前的市场情况下，通货膨胀数据的轻微波动可能会通过改变市场流动性期望而间接影响加密市场的方向。

TradingView analysts believe that for short-term traders, they can pay attention to the breakthrough direction of Bitcoin's support level of $87,000 and resistance level of $90,000, and build volatility strategies in combination with options with low IV. For medium- and long-term holders, the on-chain MVRV ratio (1.98) is still lower than the historical bull market peak (3.5), and the dispersion index of the coin holding address shows that

TradingView分析师认为，对于短期交易者，他们可以关注比特币支持水平的突破性方向为87,000美元，阻力水平为90,000美元，并结合了较低的IV期权来建立波动式策略。对于中期和长期持有人，链上MVRV比率（1.98）仍然低于历史牛市峰（3.5），而硬币持有地址的分散指数表明，