比特幣（BTC）市場顯示出溫和的反彈，BTC價格在狹窄範圍內波動

在過去的24小時內，加密貨幣市場表現出溫和的反彈，比特幣價格在狹窄的範圍內波動約為87400美元，以太坊略微糾正至2070美元。

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market showed a mild rebound, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating in a narrow range around $87,400 and Ethereum slightly correcting to $2,070. Among the mainstream currencies, Solana (SOL) rose 2% against the trend, reaching a high of $146 during the day.

在過去的24小時內，加密貨幣市場表現出溫和的反彈，比特幣價格在狹窄的範圍內波動約為87,400美元，以太坊略微糾正至2,070美元。在主流貨幣中，索拉納（Sol）（SOL）違反了2％的趨勢，白天高達146美元。

As of March 26, Beijing time, the total market value of cryptocurrencies rose slightly by 0.4% to US$2.87 trillion, and the market sentiment index (Fear & Greed Index) fell to 34, indicating that investors remain cautious.

截至3月26日，北京時間，加密貨幣的總市場價值略有0.4％，至2.87萬億美元，市場情緒指數（Fear＆Greed指數）下降到34，表明投資者仍然謹慎。

On the news front, the former "Wall Street meme" stock and game retailer GameStop (NYSE:GME) officially announced on the 25th local time that its board of directors unanimously passed a resolution to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet reserves. GameStop surged 7% in after-hours trading in the U.S. stock market, with its share price rising to $27.19.

在新聞方面，前“華爾街模因”股票和遊戲零售商GameStop（NYSE：GME）在第25個當地時間正式宣布，其董事會一致通過了一項決議，將比特幣包括在資產負債表儲備中。 GameStop在美國股市的下班後交易中飆升了7％，其股價上漲至27.19美元。

In fact, there were signs of this decision: two months ago, after the photo of GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen meeting with BTC bull Michael Saylor leaked, its major shareholder Strive Asset Management (which holds a 0.4% stake in GameStop) publicly called on the company to follow MicroStrategy's currency holding strategy. Strive CEO Matt Cole said at the time: "We believe that GameStop can improve its financial situation by purchasing Bitcoin, which is a strategic configuration."

實際上，有這一決定的跡象：兩個月前，GameStop首席執行官Ryan Cohen與BTC Bull Michael Saylor洩露的照片後，其主要股東Artive Asset Management（在GameStop中持有0.4％的股份），公開呼籲公司遵循MicroStrategy的貨幣持有策略。戰利品首席執行官馬特·科爾（Matt Cole）當時表示：“我們相信GameStop可以通過購買比特幣來改善其財務狀況，這是一種戰略配置。”

Is BTC coming out of adjustment?

BTC是否從調整中出來？

On-chain data reveals new trends in capital flows. CryptoQuant data shows that despite the stable price trend of Bitcoin, on-chain data reveals key signals:

鏈上數據揭示了資本流的新趨勢。加密數據表明，儘管比特幣的價格趨勢穩定，鏈上數據仍顯示關鍵信號：

Institutional capital migration: In the past 24 hours, there were 17 BTC transfers exceeding US$100 million, and the total on-chain transfer volume increased by 268%, reaching a three-month high.

機構資本遷移：在過去的24小時內，有17個BTC轉移超過1億美元，總鏈轉移量增加了268％，達到了三個月的高點。

Exchange flow: Coinbase had the highest positive premium of 0.3%. At the same time, the exchange's BTC reserves fell by 1%, and about 12,000 bitcoins flowed into cold wallets. This "low volatility, high turnover" trend suggests that institutional investors may be carrying out large-scale asset custody transfers.

交換流：Coinbase的正溢價最高0.3％。同時，交易所的BTC儲量下降了1％，約有12,000比特幣流入冷錢包。這種“低波動率，高離職率”的趨勢表明，機構投資者可能正在進行大規模的資產保管轉移。

Derivatives market balance: perpetual contract funding rate returned to the neutral range of 0.01%, and the option volatility surface showed that the put/call ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.85, suggesting a slight recovery in bullish sentiment.

衍生品市場平衡：永久合同融資率返回到中性範圍為0.01％，並且期權波動率表面表明，PUT/CALL率（PCR）降至0.85，表明看漲的情緒略有恢復。

It is worth noting that the Bitcoin unrealized net profit and loss indicator (NUPL) has fallen from 0.68 last week to 0.55, indicating that some short-term holders have begun to take profits. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has increased by 12 against the trend, indicating that whale accounts are still quietly accumulating funds.

值得注意的是，比特幣未實現的淨利潤指標（NUPL）從上週的0.68下降到0.55，這表明一些短期持有人已經開始獲得利潤。玻璃節數據顯示，持有1,000多個BTC的地址數量增加了12幅趨勢，這表明鯨魚帳戶仍在悄悄地積累了資金。

Hani Abuagla, senior analyst at XTB MENA, believes that Bitcoin is emerging from the second deepest adjustment in this cycle. If the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the easing of trade policy work together, the possibility of breaking through the $100,000 mark in the spring still exists.

XTB MENA的高級分析師Hani Abuagla認為，比特幣從本週期中第二深的調整中脫穎而出。如果對美聯儲削減的稅率和貿易政策的降低期望共同起作用，那麼在春季中闖入100,000美元的可能性仍然存在。

Macro variables: PCE data becomes a key touchstone

宏變量：PCE數據成為鑰匙試金石

The U.S. core PCE price index for February, which will be released on Friday (March 28), may become a sticky variable that breaks the market balance. As the inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to, the market expects the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE to rise slightly from 2.6% in January to 2.7%. If the data exceeds expectations, it may further postpone the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.

2月的美國核心PCE價格指數將於週五（3月28日）發布，可能會成為破壞市場平衡的粘性變量。由於通貨膨脹指標表明美聯儲對關注最大的關注，市場預計，核心PCE的同比增長率將從1月份的2.6％略微上升到2.7％。如果數據超出了預期，則可能會推遲市場對削減利率的期望。

The current CME FedWatch tool shows that traders' expectations for the Fed's rate cuts this year have narrowed to 50-75 basis points, and the first rate cut may be postponed to the third quarter. If the PCE data reinforces the "inflation stickiness" narrative, U.S. Treasury yields may rise again, and a stronger dollar may put short-term pressure on risky assets.

當前的CME FedWatch工具表明，交易者對今年美聯儲降低稅率的期望已縮小到50-75個基點，而第一級削減可能會推遲到第三季度。如果PCE數據加強了“通貨膨脹粘性”的敘述，那麼美國國庫的收益率可能會再次上升，並且更強勁的美元可能會對風險資產造成短期壓力。

In the current market context, slight fluctuations in inflation data may indirectly affect the direction of the crypto market by changing market liquidity expectations.

在當前的市場情況下，通貨膨脹數據的輕微波動可能會通過改變市場流動性期望而間接影響加密市場的方向。

TradingView analysts believe that for short-term traders, they can pay attention to the breakthrough direction of Bitcoin's support level of $87,000 and resistance level of $90,000, and build volatility strategies in combination with options with low IV. For medium- and long-term holders, the on-chain MVRV ratio (1.98) is still lower than the historical bull market peak (3.5), and the dispersion index of the coin holding address shows that

TradingView分析師認為，對於短期交易者，他們可以關注比特幣支持水平的突破性方向為87,000美元，阻力水平為90,000美元，並結合了較低的IV期權來建立波動式策略。對於中期和長期持有人，鏈上MVRV比率（1.98）仍然低於歷史牛市峰（3.5），而硬幣持有地址的分散指數表明，