随着山寨币季节的临近，比特币（BTC）市场动态进入“香蕉区”

比特币 [BTC] 最近的价格走势引发了人们的关注，在短暂跌破 92,500 美元之后，它反弹至 94,000 美元以上。

Bitcoin [BTC]’s recent price action has sparked intrigue as it rebounded above $94,000, after briefly dipping below $92,500. This volatile movement has left many investors questioning the cryptocurrency’s next direction amid growing market uncertainty.

比特币 [BTC] 最近的价格走势引发了人们的关注，在短暂跌破 92,500 美元之后，它反弹至 94,000 美元以上。在市场不确定性日益增加的情况下，这种波动性的走势让许多投资者质疑加密货币的下一步方向。

Adding a unique perspective to the discussion, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal introduced the concept of the “Banana Zone” during a recent podcast. Pal further elaborated on this idea through a post on X (formerly Twitter), cryptically stating,

Real Vision 创始人 Raoul Pal 在最近的播客中引入了“香蕉区”的概念，为讨论增添了独特的视角。 Pal 通过 X（以前的 Twitter）上的一篇帖子进一步阐述了这个想法，神秘地指出，

“We are still in the Banana Zone.”

“我们仍然在香蕉区。”

This has left the community buzzing with speculation about what this means for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

这让社区纷纷猜测这对比特币的发展轨迹意味着什么。

For context, Pal’s concept of the “Banana Zone” describes a rapid surge in the cryptocurrency’s price, one where the price trajectory resembles the shape of a banana on a chart.

作为背景，帕尔的“香蕉区”概念描述了加密货币价格的快速飙升，其中价格轨迹类似于图表上香蕉的形状。

Pal further explained that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, following what he calls “Banana Zone Phase 1,” which was marked by last year’s price breakout.

帕尔进一步解释说，市场目前正处于整合阶段，继他所谓的“香蕉区第一阶段”之后，该阶段以去年的价格突破为标志。

He compared this phase to the market conditions seen during the 2016-2017 cryptocurrency boom.

他将这一阶段与 2016 年至 2017 年加密货币繁荣期间的市场状况进行了比较。

Pal believes this consolidation stage won’t last much longer and he anticipates the market will soon transition into “Banana Zone Phase 2,” which he describes as “Banana Singularity” — A phase he predicts will trigger an altcoin season.

帕尔认为这个整合阶段不会持续太久，他预计市场将很快过渡到“香蕉区第二阶段”，他将其描述为“香蕉奇点”——他预测这一阶段将引发山寨币季节。

According to the latest update from BlockchainCenter.net, the altseason is still a distant prospect, as the current index stands at 51 – A sign that it is not yet the altseason.

根据 BlockchainCenter.net 的最新更新，山寨季节仍然是一个遥远的前景，因为当前指数为 51 – 这表明它还不是山寨季节。

During this phase, as Pal points out,

正如帕尔指出的，在这个阶段，

“everything goes up (followed by a bigger consolidation).”

“一切都在上涨（随后是更大的整合）。”

Pal also suggested that the market will eventually enter “Banana Zone Phase 3,” which he describes as the “concentration phase.” Here, the core winners explode and make much higher highs. This phase is expected to mark the final surge in the cycle, with select cryptocurrencies reaching new peaks.

帕尔还表示，市场最终将进入“香蕉区第三阶段”，他将其描述为“集中阶段”。在这里，核心赢家爆发并创下更高的高点。这一阶段预计将标志着该周期的最后一次飙升，部分加密货币将达到新的峰值。

In line with this, an analysis by AMBCrypto using IntoTheBlock data revealed that a substantial 91.82% of Bitcoin holders were “in the money,” holding tokens worth more than their original purchase price.

与此相一致的是，AMBCrypto 使用 IntoTheBlock 数据进行的分析显示，91.82% 的比特币持有者处于“现金状态”，持有的代币价值高于其原始购买价格。

This overwhelming figure indicated a bullish market sentiment, further supporting expectations of a price surge. Conversely, only 4.52% of BTC holders were “out of the money,” holding tokens valued lower than their purchase price.

这一压倒性的数字表明看涨的市场情绪，进一步支撑了价格飙升的预期。相反，只有 4.52% 的 BTC 持有者处于“价外”状态，持有的代币价值低于其购买价格。

Given Bitcoin’s lead in the market, this momentum suggested that the broader crypto market will likely follow suit, with a majority of the assets poised for a rally in the near future.

鉴于比特币在市场上的领先地位，这种势头表明更广泛的加密货币市场可能会效仿，大多数资产有望在不久的将来上涨。

Thus, as Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on 20 January, its price trajectory remains uncertain. Given the upcoming events, analysts believe that if BTC manages to defend the $88k-level before or after the inauguration, a strong rebound could follow.

因此，由于比特币在 1 月 20 日唐纳德·特朗普总统就职典礼之前面临关键时刻，其价格走势仍存在不确定性。鉴于即将发生的事件，分析师认为，如果 BTC 在就职典礼之前或之后能够守住 8.8 万美元的水平，那么可能会出现强劲反弹。

On the other hand, a dip below $88k might trigger a panic sell-off by the STH (short-term holder) cohort, potentially driving the price even lower.

另一方面，跌破 88,000 美元可能会引发 STH（短期持有者）群体的恐慌性抛售，从而可能导致价格进一步走低。

Thus, it is worth waiting to see what happens next. Especially as the market braces for volatility and the unfolding political events that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.

因此，值得等待看看接下来会发生什么。特别是当市场准备迎接波动和不断发展的政治事件时，这些事件可能会影响比特币的近期前景。