隨著山寨幣季節的臨近，比特幣（BTC）市場動態進入“香蕉區”

比特幣 [BTC] 最近的價格走勢引發了人們的關注，在短暫跌破 92,500 美元之後，它反彈至 94,000 美元以上。

Bitcoin [BTC]’s recent price action has sparked intrigue as it rebounded above $94,000, after briefly dipping below $92,500. This volatile movement has left many investors questioning the cryptocurrency’s next direction amid growing market uncertainty.

比特幣 [BTC] 最近的價格走勢引發了人們的關注，在短暫跌破 92,500 美元之後，它反彈至 94,000 美元以上。在市場不確定性日益增加的情況下，這種波動性的趨勢讓許多投資者質疑加密貨幣的下一步。

Adding a unique perspective to the discussion, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal introduced the concept of the “Banana Zone” during a recent podcast. Pal further elaborated on this idea through a post on X (formerly Twitter), cryptically stating,

Real Vision 創辦人 Raoul Pal 在最近的播客中引入了「香蕉區」的概念，為討論增添了獨特的視角。 Pal 透過 X（以前的 Twitter）上的一篇貼文進一步闡述了這個想法，神秘地指出，

“We are still in the Banana Zone.”

“我們仍然在香蕉區。”

This has left the community buzzing with speculation about what this means for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

這讓社群紛紛猜測這對比特幣的發展軌跡意味著什麼。

For context, Pal’s concept of the “Banana Zone” describes a rapid surge in the cryptocurrency’s price, one where the price trajectory resembles the shape of a banana on a chart.

作為背景，帕爾的「香蕉區」概念描述了加密貨幣價格的快速飆升，其中價格軌跡類似於圖表上香蕉的形狀。

Pal further explained that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, following what he calls “Banana Zone Phase 1,” which was marked by last year’s price breakout.

帕爾進一步解釋說，市場目前正處於整合階段，繼他所謂的「香蕉區第一階段」之後，該階段以去年的價格突破為標誌。

He compared this phase to the market conditions seen during the 2016-2017 cryptocurrency boom.

他將這一階段與 2016 年至 2017 年加密貨幣繁榮期間的市場狀況進行了比較。

Pal believes this consolidation stage won’t last much longer and he anticipates the market will soon transition into “Banana Zone Phase 2,” which he describes as “Banana Singularity” — A phase he predicts will trigger an altcoin season.

帕爾認為這個整合階段不會持續太久，他預計市場將很快過渡到“香蕉區第二階段”，他將其描述為“香蕉奇點”——他預測這一階段將引發山寨幣季節。

According to the latest update from BlockchainCenter.net, the altseason is still a distant prospect, as the current index stands at 51 – A sign that it is not yet the altseason.

根據 BlockchainCenter.net 的最新更新，山寨季節仍然是一個遙遠的前景，因為當前指數為 51 – 這表明它還不是山寨季節。

During this phase, as Pal points out,

正如帕爾指出的，在這個階段，

“everything goes up (followed by a bigger consolidation).”

“一切都在上漲（隨後是更大的整合）。”

Pal also suggested that the market will eventually enter “Banana Zone Phase 3,” which he describes as the “concentration phase.” Here, the core winners explode and make much higher highs. This phase is expected to mark the final surge in the cycle, with select cryptocurrencies reaching new peaks.

帕爾還表示，市場最終將進入“香蕉區第三階段”，他將其描述為“集中階段”。在這裡，核心贏家爆發並創下更高的高點。這一階段預計將標誌著該週期的最後一次飆升，部分加密貨幣將達到新的高峰。

In line with this, an analysis by AMBCrypto using IntoTheBlock data revealed that a substantial 91.82% of Bitcoin holders were “in the money,” holding tokens worth more than their original purchase price.

與此一致的是，AMBCrypto 使用 IntoTheBlock 數據進行的分析顯示，91.82% 的比特幣持有者處於“現金狀態”，持有的代幣價值高於其原始購買價格。

This overwhelming figure indicated a bullish market sentiment, further supporting expectations of a price surge. Conversely, only 4.52% of BTC holders were “out of the money,” holding tokens valued lower than their purchase price.

這一壓倒性的數字表明看漲的市場情緒，進一步支撐了價格飆升的預期。相反，只有 4.52% 的 BTC 持有者處於「價外」狀態，持有的代幣價值低於其購買價格。

Given Bitcoin’s lead in the market, this momentum suggested that the broader crypto market will likely follow suit, with a majority of the assets poised for a rally in the near future.

鑑於比特幣在市場上的領先地位，這種勢頭表明更廣泛的加密貨幣市場可能會效仿，大多數資產預計將在不久的將來上漲。

Thus, as Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration on 20 January, its price trajectory remains uncertain. Given the upcoming events, analysts believe that if BTC manages to defend the $88k-level before or after the inauguration, a strong rebound could follow.

因此，由於比特幣在 1 月 20 日唐納德·川普總統就職典禮之前面臨關鍵時刻，其價格走勢仍存在不確定性。鑑於即將發生的事件，分析師認為，如果 BTC 在就職典禮之前或之後能夠守住 8.8 萬美元的水平，那麼可能會出現強勁反彈。

On the other hand, a dip below $88k might trigger a panic sell-off by the STH (short-term holder) cohort, potentially driving the price even lower.

另一方面，跌破 88,000 美元可能會引發 STH（短期持有者）群體的恐慌性拋售，這可能會導致價格進一步走低。

Thus, it is worth waiting to see what happens next. Especially as the market braces for volatility and the unfolding political events that could shape Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.

因此，值得等待看看接下來會發生什麼。特別是當市場準備迎接波動和不斷發展的政治事件時，這些事件可能會影響比特幣的近期前景。