比特币 (BTC) 再次跌破 10 万：它能守住吗？

自 2021 年以来，比特币价格 10 万美元大关一直是人们关注的焦点。尤其是在那个时候，PlanB 做出了预测

Yesterday the price of Bitcoin fell for the first time below 100k since December 13.

昨天，比特币价格自 12 月 13 日以来首次跌破 10 万。

In other words, after less than a week since the last time, it has fallen below this very important psychological threshold again.

也就是说，距离上次还不到一周的时间，又跌破了这个非常重要的心理阈值。

Bitcoin and the fateful level of 100k

比特币和 100k 的决定性水平

The 100,000$ mark regarding the price of Bitcoin has been a special focus since 2021.

自 2021 年以来，比特币价格的 10 万美元大关一直是人们特别关注的焦点。

At that time in particular, there were the projections of PlanB, based on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, according to which the price of BTC in the second part of the year could have significantly exceeded that figure.

特别是在那个时候，PlanB 基于stock-to-flow（S2F）模型进行了预测，根据该模型，今年下半年 BTC 的价格可能会大幅超过该数字。

To tell the truth, PlanB claimed that his were real forecasts, while in reality they were only projections based on past trends. Projections based on the past are valid only as long as the situation does not change.

说实话，PlanB声称自己的预测是真实的，但实际上只是根据过去的趋势进行的预测。基于过去的预测只有在情况没有改变的情况下才有效。

In 2021, there was a strong change, around May (shortly before mid-year).

2021 年，5 月左右（年中前不久）出现了强烈的变化。

That change was due to a total and definitive ban by China on Bitcoin trading. There had already been other Chinese bans on crypto in the past, but none had ever managed to completely halt the Chinese crypto market.

这一变化是由于中国全面明确禁止比特币交易所致。中国过去已经颁布过其他针对加密货币的禁令，但没有一次能够完全阻止中国加密货币市场的发展。

However, in the second half of 2021, the Chinese crypto market practically disappeared, causing a significant loss of capital in the global crypto market.

然而，2021年下半年，中国加密市场几乎消失，导致全球加密市场资金大幅流失。

Thus, PlanB’s projections suddenly became incorrect, but not because they were wrong: the only problem was that the general market conditions had changed.

因此，PlanB 的预测突然变得不正确，但并不是因为它们错了：唯一的问题是总体市场状况发生了变化。

In light of this, it is possible to hypothesize that, perhaps, if the Chinese capital had not disappeared, the price of Bitcoin could have reached the fateful 100k already in the second half of 2021.

有鉴于此，我们可以假设，如果中国资本没有消失，比特币的价格可能在 2021 年下半年就已经达到了致命的 10 万美元。

The current situation

目前的情况

The fact is that, over the following years, although the Chinese ban remained in place, the Chinese managed to re-enter the crypto market all the same, using foreign channels.

事实是，在接下来的几年里，尽管中国的禁令仍然存在，但中国人仍然设法通过外国渠道重新进入加密货币市场。

And so today Chinese capital has largely returned, despite the ban still being in effect.

因此，尽管禁令仍然有效，但如今中国资本已基本回流。

To this must be added that after the US presidential elections, the price of Bitcoin generally manages to return to the historical highs of the previous cycle, as already happened in 2016 and 2020.

值得补充的是，在美国总统大选之后，比特币的价格总体上会回到上一周期的历史高位，就像 2016 年和 2020 年那样。

Therefore, it should not be surprising at all that the price of BTC this year has reached and surpassed the highs of 2021 even before the US presidential elections, nor that after them it even managed to reach 100k for the first time.

因此，今年比特币的价格在美国总统大选之前就已经达到并超越了 2021 年的高点，甚至在大选之后首次突破 10 万也就不足为奇了。

In light of everything that has happened in the last four years, it is possible to say that the situation now seems to have returned to normal.

考虑到过去四年发生的一切，可以说现在的情况似乎已经恢复正常。

Bitcoin (BTC): holding the 100k

比特币（BTC）：持有 10 万

Yesterday, however, the 100k did not hold.

然而，昨天，100k 没有守住。

To tell the truth, after dropping to $98,000, the price of Bitcoin then quickly returned above $100,000, managing to also rise above $102,000.

说实话，比特币价格在跌至9.8万美元后，很快又回到了10万美元以上，并成功突破了10.2万美元。

The question now is: will it hold the 100k?

现在的问题是：它能容纳 100k 吗？

A good part of the answer lies in the behavior of the American markets.

答案很大程度上取决于美国市场的行为。

Yesterday, in fact, it was the American markets that brought Bitcoin back under 100k.

事实上，昨天，是美国市场将比特币拉回了 10 万以下。

The key point was the Fed’s change in perspective regarding the interest rate cut estimates for 2025. Until the day before yesterday, the markets were convinced that next year there would be at least 4 cuts, whereas yesterday the Fed clearly stated that it is more inclined to imagine only two, for now.

关键是美联储对2025年降息预期的看法发生了变化。直到前天，市场还确信明年至少会降息4次，而昨天美联储明确表示更倾向于降息。目前只能想象两个。

The consequence was a strong and sudden repositioning of the American markets on this new perspective, which caused heavy losses that also affected the crypto markets.

其结果是美国市场根据这一新视角进行了强烈而突然的重新定位，这造成了严重损失，也影响了加密货币市场。

Now, however, with a cool head, other hypotheses can also be made.

然而现在，只要头脑冷静，也可以做出其他假设。

The hypothesis of the rebound

反弹假说

The first hypothesis is that today the American markets, after yesterday’s course correction, may return to being relatively optimistic.

第一个假设是，经过昨天的调整后，今天的美国市场可能会恢复到相对乐观的状态。

In fact, the reason that prompted the Fed to revise its estimates on rate cuts is that the US economy is performing better than expected.

事实上，促使美联储修改降息预期的原因是美国经济表现好于预期。

Given the high rates, for many months now, a downturn in the US economy was expected, which instead is continuing to perform substantially well.

鉴于目前的高利率，几个月来人们一直预计美国经济会出现下滑，但美国经济却继续表现良好。

While on one hand this means that the Fed will not be able to afford to lower rates too much or too quickly, in order to avoid a resurgence of inflation, on the other hand it means that by 2025, better than expected economic results from US companies could be anticipated.

一方面这意味着美联储将无法承受过多或过快的降息以避免通胀再度抬头，但另一方面也意味着到2025年美国经济业绩将好于预期企业可以期待。

Therefore, from today onwards, there could be further repositionings, but perhaps this time upwards.

因此，从今天开始，可能会有进一步的重新定位，但这次可能是向上的。

The other hypothesis, however, is that the markets yesterday actually changed their mind about 2025, starting to hypothesize a less rosy situation than expected. However,

然而，另一个假设是，昨天市场实际上改变了对 2025 年的看法，开始假设情况没有预期那么乐观。然而，