比特幣 (BTC) 再次跌破 10 萬：它能守住嗎？

自 2021 年以來，比特幣價格 10 萬美元大關一直是人們關注的焦點。

Yesterday the price of Bitcoin fell for the first time below 100k since December 13.

昨天，比特幣價格自 12 月 13 日以來首次跌破 10 萬。

In other words, after less than a week since the last time, it has fallen below this very important psychological threshold again.

也就是說，距離上次還不到一週的時間，又跌破了這個非常重要的心理閾值。

Bitcoin and the fateful level of 100k

比特幣和 100k 的決定性水平

The 100,000$ mark regarding the price of Bitcoin has been a special focus since 2021.

自 2021 年以來，比特幣價格的 10 萬美元大關一直是人們特別關注的焦點。

At that time in particular, there were the projections of PlanB, based on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, according to which the price of BTC in the second part of the year could have significantly exceeded that figure.

特別是在那個時候，PlanB 基於stock-to-flow（S2F）模型進行了預測，根據該模型，今年下半年 BTC 的價格可能會大幅超過該數字。

To tell the truth, PlanB claimed that his were real forecasts, while in reality they were only projections based on past trends. Projections based on the past are valid only as long as the situation does not change.

說實話，PlanB聲稱自己的預測是真實的，但實際上只是根據過去的趨勢進行的預測。基於過去的預測只有在情況沒有改變的情況下才有效。

In 2021, there was a strong change, around May (shortly before mid-year).

2021 年，5 月左右（年中前不久）出現了強烈的變化。

That change was due to a total and definitive ban by China on Bitcoin trading. There had already been other Chinese bans on crypto in the past, but none had ever managed to completely halt the Chinese crypto market.

這項變化是由於中國全面明確禁止比特幣交易所致。中國過去已經頒布過其他針對加密貨幣的禁令，但沒有一次能完全阻止中國加密貨幣市場的發展。

However, in the second half of 2021, the Chinese crypto market practically disappeared, causing a significant loss of capital in the global crypto market.

然而，2021年下半年，中國加密市場幾乎消失，導致全球加密市場資金大幅流失。

Thus, PlanB’s projections suddenly became incorrect, but not because they were wrong: the only problem was that the general market conditions had changed.

因此，PlanB 的預測突然變得不正確，但並不是因為它們錯了：唯一的問題是整體市場狀況改變了。

In light of this, it is possible to hypothesize that, perhaps, if the Chinese capital had not disappeared, the price of Bitcoin could have reached the fateful 100k already in the second half of 2021.

有鑑於此，我們可以假設，如果中國資本沒有消失，比特幣的價格可能在 2021 年下半年就已經達到了致命的 10 萬美元。

The current situation

目前的情況

The fact is that, over the following years, although the Chinese ban remained in place, the Chinese managed to re-enter the crypto market all the same, using foreign channels.

事實是，在接下來的幾年裡，儘管中國的禁令仍然存在，但中國人仍然設法透過外國管道重新進入加密貨幣市場。

And so today Chinese capital has largely returned, despite the ban still being in effect.

因此，儘管禁令仍然有效，但如今中國資本已基本回流。

To this must be added that after the US presidential elections, the price of Bitcoin generally manages to return to the historical highs of the previous cycle, as already happened in 2016 and 2020.

值得補充的是，在美國總統大選之後，比特幣的價格總體上會回到上一周期的歷史高位，就像 2016 年和 2020 年一樣。

Therefore, it should not be surprising at all that the price of BTC this year has reached and surpassed the highs of 2021 even before the US presidential elections, nor that after them it even managed to reach 100k for the first time.

因此，今年比特幣的價格在美國總統大選之前就已經達到並超越了 2021 年的高點，甚至在大選之後首次突破 10 萬也就不足為奇了。

In light of everything that has happened in the last four years, it is possible to say that the situation now seems to have returned to normal.

考慮到過去四年發生的一切，可以說現在的情況似乎已經恢復正常。

Bitcoin (BTC): holding the 100k

比特幣（BTC）：持有 10 萬

Yesterday, however, the 100k did not hold.

然而，昨天，100k 沒有守住。

To tell the truth, after dropping to $98,000, the price of Bitcoin then quickly returned above $100,000, managing to also rise above $102,000.

說實話，比特幣價格在跌至9.8萬美元後，很快又回到了10萬美元以上，並成功突破了10.2萬美元。

The question now is: will it hold the 100k?

現在的問題是：它能容納 100k 嗎？

A good part of the answer lies in the behavior of the American markets.

答案很大程度取決於美國市場的行為。

Yesterday, in fact, it was the American markets that brought Bitcoin back under 100k.

事實上，昨天，是美國市場將比特幣拉回了 10 萬以下。

The key point was the Fed’s change in perspective regarding the interest rate cut estimates for 2025. Until the day before yesterday, the markets were convinced that next year there would be at least 4 cuts, whereas yesterday the Fed clearly stated that it is more inclined to imagine only two, for now.

關鍵在於聯準會對2025年降息預期的看法改變了。

The consequence was a strong and sudden repositioning of the American markets on this new perspective, which caused heavy losses that also affected the crypto markets.

結果是美國市場根據這一新視角進行了強烈而突然的重新定位，這造成了嚴重損失，也影響了加密貨幣市場。

Now, however, with a cool head, other hypotheses can also be made.

然而現在，只要頭腦冷靜，也可以做出其他假設。

The hypothesis of the rebound

反彈假說

The first hypothesis is that today the American markets, after yesterday’s course correction, may return to being relatively optimistic.

第一個假設是，經過昨天的調整後，今天的美國市場可能會恢復到相對樂觀的狀態。

In fact, the reason that prompted the Fed to revise its estimates on rate cuts is that the US economy is performing better than expected.

事實上，促使聯準會修改降息預期的原因是美國經濟表現優於預期。

Given the high rates, for many months now, a downturn in the US economy was expected, which instead is continuing to perform substantially well.

鑑於目前的高利率，幾個月來人們一直預期美國經濟會出現下滑，但美國經濟卻持續表現良好。

While on one hand this means that the Fed will not be able to afford to lower rates too much or too quickly, in order to avoid a resurgence of inflation, on the other hand it means that by 2025, better than expected economic results from US companies could be anticipated.

一方面這意味著聯準會將無法承受過多或過快的降息以避免通膨再度抬頭，但另一方面也意味著到2025年美國經濟表現將好於預期企業可以期待。

Therefore, from today onwards, there could be further repositionings, but perhaps this time upwards.

因此，從今天開始，可能會有進一步的重新定位，但這次可能是向上的。

The other hypothesis, however, is that the markets yesterday actually changed their mind about 2025, starting to hypothesize a less rosy situation than expected. However,

然而，另一個假設是，昨天市場實際上改變了對 2025 年的看法，開始假設情況沒有預期那麼樂觀。然而，