比特币（BTC）今年将达到200,000美元，到特朗普结束时，比特币（BTC）预测杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）

2月27日，在接受CNBC的街头标志采访时，标准包机的数字资产研究负责人杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick

In a recent interview with CNBC’s Street Signs on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, shared his insights on Bitcoin’s recent price decline and offered a bold price prediction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

在2月27日对CNBC街头标志的最近采访中，《标准宪章》数字资产研究负责人杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）分享了他对比特币最近价格下跌的见解，并为世界上最大的加密货币提供了大胆的价格预测。

Despite macroeconomic headwinds and near-term volatility, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by this year and as high as $500,000 before President Trump’s term ends, according to a new analysis by CoinDesk.

尽管Coindesk进行了新的分析，但尽管宏观经济的逆风和近期波动性，但肯德里克（Kendrick）预计比特币将在今年达到200,000美元，在特朗普总统任期结束之前高达500,000美元。

Bitcoin Crash? No Problem!

比特币崩溃？没问题！

Kendrick began by discussing the influence of political developments on investor sentiment.

肯德里克（Kendrick）首先讨论政治发展对投资者情绪的影响。

“So I think the Trump Administration will be positive medium term. So we came into January 20, hoping for quite a lot and you could argue there was already quite a lot of positivity priced in.”

“因此，我认为特朗普政府将是积极的中期。因此，我们进入1月20日，希望有很多东西，您可能会说已经有很多积极的价格。”

He pointed to the immediate post-inauguration shift in regulatory stance—specifically, the removal of SAB 121, which he described as having “been hampering financial institutions.”

他指出，监管立场的立即发生后转变，特别是删除了SAB 121，他称这是“正在妨碍金融机构”。

However, he noted the lack of a widely anticipated strategic Bitcoin stockpile by the U.S. Treasury, which was instead replaced by a more “tactical” approach.

但是，他指出，美国财政部缺乏广泛预期的战略比特币，而这被更“战术”的方法取代了。

“The stockpile for me is okay because it legitimizes other sovereigns … both within the U.S. [and outside]. A number of U.S. state are considering holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet.”

“对我来说，库存是可以的，因为它在美国境内和外部都合法化了其他主权。美国许多州正在考虑将比特币固定在资产负债表上。”

However, markets have been rattled by fresh uncertainties.

但是，市场因新鲜的不确定性而震撼。

“Initiatives in the last couple of weeks have been very confusing for risk assets … tariffs on and off. Canada, Mexico, EU … obviously some potential positives coming around Ukraine and or the Middle East but nothing really solid on any of those and risk assets don’t like uncertainty.”

“在过去几周中，对风险资产的倡议令人困惑……关税开出来。加拿大，墨西哥，欧盟……显然，乌克兰和或中东周围有一些潜在的积极因素，但任何这些都没有真正稳定的，风险资产不喜欢不确定性。”

Within the crypto sphere specifically, he cited the Bybit hack, trouble with the Solana meme coin scams, and a generally “confusing” environment as contributors to the pullback.

在加密球体中，他列举了Bybit Hack，Solana Meme Coin Scams的麻烦，以及通常“令人困惑”的环境作为回调的贡献者。

When asked whether Bitcoin remains a genuine diversifier amid its correlation with equities, especially during times of market stress, Kendrick shared a nuanced view.

当被问及比特币与股票的相关性，尤其是在市场压力时期，肯德里克（Kendrick）分享了细微的观点时，比特币是否仍然是真正的多样性。

“Certainly when we see large moves like we’ve seen in the last few weeks … on the negative direction risk assets all trade together … Medium-term, I think the diversification story is reasonable … The use case for Bitcoin in particular is to diversify against risks around traditional financial markets.”

“当然，当我们看到最近几周的大型动作时……在负面的方向上，风险资产共同交易……中期，我认为多元化故事是合理的……比特币的用例尤其是在传统金融市场周围的风险中多样化。”

Kendrick also addressed the large outflows from the spot ETFs since Trump’s inauguration and what they could mean for Bitcoin’s price.

肯德里克（Kendrick）还谈到了自特朗普就职典礼以来ETF的大量流出以及比特币价格的意义。

“Even in the last week, we’ve seen about $3 billion of outflows in terms of the ETFs … we got to a net position of about $40 billion of inflows over the first 12 months of those ETFs in the U.S. … but in the last week or so we’ve seen $3 billion of outflows.”

“即使在上周，我们在ETF方面看到了约30亿美元的外流……在美国的前12个月中，我们达到了大约400亿美元的流入，但在过去的一周左右的时间里，我们看到了30亿美元的溢出。”

He estimates that those who bought Bitcoin post-election in November are now “heavily underwater” to the tune of $2 billion in paper losses. This newer cohort of holders, combined with the sector’s still-robust retail participation, has amplified volatility.

他估计，那些在11月购买比特币后的人现在“在水下大量”，造成了20亿美元的纸质损失。这种较新的持有人队列，再加上该行业的零售零售参与，使波动性得到了放大。

“It’s much more difficult for investors then to hold through losses … when you see moves like we saw this week, you tend to get some panic selling.”

“然后，投资者很难忍受损失……当您看到我们本周所见的举动时，您往往会出售一些恐慌。”

$200,000 Target Still In Play

$ 200,000的目标仍在

He also added that we should see deeper levels of institutional participation.

他还补充说，我们应该看到更深层次的机构参与。

“As the industry becomes more institutionalized it should be safer … hopefully we get some regulatory clarity in the U.S. too … that should add to that medium-term top side potential which for me is Bitcoin up to $200,000 this year and $500,000 before Trump leaves office.”

“随着行业变得更加机构化，应该更加安全……希望我们在美国也获得一些监管清晰度……这应该增加中期顶级潜力，对我来说，这对我来说是比特币今年最高200,000美元，而在特朗普离开办公室之前，这应该增加500,000美元。”

Looking ahead, Kendrick highlighted the importance of regulatory clarity—particularly around stablecoin rules and KYC—in driving further institutional and even sovereign capital inflows into crypto. He identified long-term public pension funds and major investment houses like BlackRock as pivotal players in this narrative.

展望未来，肯德里克（Kendrick）强调了监管清晰度的重要性（尤其是围绕稳定规则和KYC）的重要性，在推动进一步的机构甚至主权资本流入加密货币方面。他确定了长期的公共养老基金和贝莱德（Blackrock）这样的主要投资公司是这种叙述中的关键参与者。

“There’s that very long-term sector that is still to participate more … and then also Sovereign so the only Sovereign that we know so far has bought the ETFs is Abu Dhabi Sovereign wealth fund … I’d expect more of that to come through this year as well.”

“有一个非常长期的部门仍将更多地参与……然后是主权，因此我们知道到目前为止购买ETF的唯一主权是阿布扎比主权财富基金……我希望今年也会有更多。”

At press time, BTC is trading at $81,428.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为81,428美元。