Bitcoin (BTC) Will Hit $200,000 This Year and $500,000 by the End of Trump's Term, Predicts Geoffrey Kendrick

In an interview with CNBC's Street Signs on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, offered insights on Bitcoin's recent price

In a recent interview with CNBC’s Street Signs on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, shared his insights on Bitcoin’s recent price decline and offered a bold price prediction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

Despite macroeconomic headwinds and near-term volatility, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by this year and as high as $500,000 before President Trump’s term ends, according to a new analysis by CoinDesk.

Bitcoin Crash? No Problem!

Kendrick began by discussing the influence of political developments on investor sentiment.

“So I think the Trump Administration will be positive medium term. So we came into January 20, hoping for quite a lot and you could argue there was already quite a lot of positivity priced in.”

He pointed to the immediate post-inauguration shift in regulatory stance—specifically, the removal of SAB 121, which he described as having “been hampering financial institutions.”

However, he noted the lack of a widely anticipated strategic Bitcoin stockpile by the U.S. Treasury, which was instead replaced by a more “tactical” approach.

“The stockpile for me is okay because it legitimizes other sovereigns … both within the U.S. [and outside]. A number of U.S. state are considering holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet.”

However, markets have been rattled by fresh uncertainties.

“Initiatives in the last couple of weeks have been very confusing for risk assets … tariffs on and off. Canada, Mexico, EU … obviously some potential positives coming around Ukraine and or the Middle East but nothing really solid on any of those and risk assets don’t like uncertainty.”

Within the crypto sphere specifically, he cited the Bybit hack, trouble with the Solana meme coin scams, and a generally “confusing” environment as contributors to the pullback.

When asked whether Bitcoin remains a genuine diversifier amid its correlation with equities, especially during times of market stress, Kendrick shared a nuanced view.

“Certainly when we see large moves like we’ve seen in the last few weeks … on the negative direction risk assets all trade together … Medium-term, I think the diversification story is reasonable … The use case for Bitcoin in particular is to diversify against risks around traditional financial markets.”

Kendrick also addressed the large outflows from the spot ETFs since Trump’s inauguration and what they could mean for Bitcoin’s price.

“Even in the last week, we’ve seen about $3 billion of outflows in terms of the ETFs … we got to a net position of about $40 billion of inflows over the first 12 months of those ETFs in the U.S. … but in the last week or so we’ve seen $3 billion of outflows.”

He estimates that those who bought Bitcoin post-election in November are now “heavily underwater” to the tune of $2 billion in paper losses. This newer cohort of holders, combined with the sector’s still-robust retail participation, has amplified volatility.

“It’s much more difficult for investors then to hold through losses … when you see moves like we saw this week, you tend to get some panic selling.”

$200,000 Target Still In Play

He also added that we should see deeper levels of institutional participation.

“As the industry becomes more institutionalized it should be safer … hopefully we get some regulatory clarity in the U.S. too … that should add to that medium-term top side potential which for me is Bitcoin up to $200,000 this year and $500,000 before Trump leaves office.”

Looking ahead, Kendrick highlighted the importance of regulatory clarity—particularly around stablecoin rules and KYC—in driving further institutional and even sovereign capital inflows into crypto. He identified long-term public pension funds and major investment houses like BlackRock as pivotal players in this narrative.

“There’s that very long-term sector that is still to participate more … and then also Sovereign so the only Sovereign that we know so far has bought the ETFs is Abu Dhabi Sovereign wealth fund … I’d expect more of that to come through this year as well.”

At press time, BTC is trading at $81,428.