比特幣（BTC）今年將達到200,000美元，到特朗普結束時，比特幣（BTC）預測杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）

2月27日，在接受CNBC的街頭標誌採訪時，標準包機的數字資產研究負責人杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick

In a recent interview with CNBC’s Street Signs on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, shared his insights on Bitcoin’s recent price decline and offered a bold price prediction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

在2月27日對CNBC街頭標誌的最近採訪中，《標準憲章》數字資產研究負責人杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）分享了他對比特幣最近價格下跌的見解，並為世界上最大的加密貨幣提供了大膽的價格預測。

Despite macroeconomic headwinds and near-term volatility, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by this year and as high as $500,000 before President Trump’s term ends, according to a new analysis by CoinDesk.

儘管Coindesk進行了新的分析，但儘管宏觀經濟的逆風和近期波動性，但肯德里克（Kendrick）預計比特幣將在今年達到200,000美元，在特朗普總統任期結束之前高達500,000美元。

Bitcoin Crash? No Problem!

比特幣崩潰？沒問題！

Kendrick began by discussing the influence of political developments on investor sentiment.

肯德里克（Kendrick）首先討論政治發展對投資者情緒的影響。

“So I think the Trump Administration will be positive medium term. So we came into January 20, hoping for quite a lot and you could argue there was already quite a lot of positivity priced in.”

“因此，我認為特朗普政府將是積極的中期。因此，我們進入1月20日，希望有很多東西，您可能會說已經有很多積極的價格。”

He pointed to the immediate post-inauguration shift in regulatory stance—specifically, the removal of SAB 121, which he described as having “been hampering financial institutions.”

他指出，監管立場的立即發生後轉變，特別是刪除了SAB 121，他稱這是“正在妨礙金融機構”。

However, he noted the lack of a widely anticipated strategic Bitcoin stockpile by the U.S. Treasury, which was instead replaced by a more “tactical” approach.

但是，他指出，美國財政部缺乏廣泛預期的戰略比特幣，而這被更“戰術”的方法取代了。

“The stockpile for me is okay because it legitimizes other sovereigns … both within the U.S. [and outside]. A number of U.S. state are considering holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet.”

“對我來說，庫存是可以的，因為它在美國境內和外部都合法化了其他主權。美國許多州正在考慮將比特幣固定在資產負債表上。”

However, markets have been rattled by fresh uncertainties.

但是，市場因新鮮的不確定性而震撼。

“Initiatives in the last couple of weeks have been very confusing for risk assets … tariffs on and off. Canada, Mexico, EU … obviously some potential positives coming around Ukraine and or the Middle East but nothing really solid on any of those and risk assets don’t like uncertainty.”

“在過去幾周中，對風險資產的倡議令人困惑……關稅開出來。加拿大，墨西哥，歐盟……顯然，烏克蘭和或中東周圍有一些潛在的積極因素，但任何這些都沒有真正穩定的，風險資產不喜歡不確定性。”

Within the crypto sphere specifically, he cited the Bybit hack, trouble with the Solana meme coin scams, and a generally “confusing” environment as contributors to the pullback.

在加密球體中，他列舉了Bybit Hack，Solana Meme Coin Scams的麻煩，以及通常“令人困惑”的環境作為回調的貢獻者。

When asked whether Bitcoin remains a genuine diversifier amid its correlation with equities, especially during times of market stress, Kendrick shared a nuanced view.

當被問及比特幣與股票的相關性，尤其是在市場壓力時期，肯德里克（Kendrick）分享了細微的觀點時，比特幣是否仍然是真正的多樣性。

“Certainly when we see large moves like we’ve seen in the last few weeks … on the negative direction risk assets all trade together … Medium-term, I think the diversification story is reasonable … The use case for Bitcoin in particular is to diversify against risks around traditional financial markets.”

“當然，當我們看到最近幾週的大型動作時……在負面的方向上，風險資產共同交易……中期，我認為多元化故事是合理的……比特幣的用例尤其是在傳統金融市場周圍的風險中多樣化。”

Kendrick also addressed the large outflows from the spot ETFs since Trump’s inauguration and what they could mean for Bitcoin’s price.

肯德里克（Kendrick）還談到了自特朗普就職典禮以來ETF的大量流出以及比特幣價格的意義。

“Even in the last week, we’ve seen about $3 billion of outflows in terms of the ETFs … we got to a net position of about $40 billion of inflows over the first 12 months of those ETFs in the U.S. … but in the last week or so we’ve seen $3 billion of outflows.”

“即使在上週，我們在ETF方面看到了約30億美元的外流……在美國的前12個月中，我們達到了大約400億美元的流入，但在過去的一周左右的時間裡，我們看到了30億美元的溢出。”

He estimates that those who bought Bitcoin post-election in November are now “heavily underwater” to the tune of $2 billion in paper losses. This newer cohort of holders, combined with the sector’s still-robust retail participation, has amplified volatility.

他估計，那些在11月購買比特幣後的人現在“在水下大量”，造成了20億美元的紙質損失。這種較新的持有人隊列，再加上該行業的零售零售參與，使波動性得到了放大。

“It’s much more difficult for investors then to hold through losses … when you see moves like we saw this week, you tend to get some panic selling.”

“然後，投資者很難忍受損失……當您看到我們本週所見的舉動時，您往往會出售一些恐慌。”

$200,000 Target Still In Play

$ 200,000的目標仍在

He also added that we should see deeper levels of institutional participation.

他還補充說，我們應該看到更深層次的機構參與。

“As the industry becomes more institutionalized it should be safer … hopefully we get some regulatory clarity in the U.S. too … that should add to that medium-term top side potential which for me is Bitcoin up to $200,000 this year and $500,000 before Trump leaves office.”

“隨著行業變得更加機構化，應該更加安全……希望我們在美國也獲得一些監管清晰度……這應該增加中期頂級潛力，對我來說，這對我來說是比特幣今年最高200,000美元，而在特朗普離開辦公室之前，這應該增加500,000美元。”

Looking ahead, Kendrick highlighted the importance of regulatory clarity—particularly around stablecoin rules and KYC—in driving further institutional and even sovereign capital inflows into crypto. He identified long-term public pension funds and major investment houses like BlackRock as pivotal players in this narrative.

展望未來，肯德里克（Kendrick）強調了監管清晰度的重要性（尤其是圍繞穩定規則和KYC）的重要性，在推動進一步的機構甚至主權資本流入加密貨幣方面。他確定了長期的公共養老基金和貝萊德（Blackrock）這樣的主要投資公司是這種敘述中的關鍵參與者。

“There’s that very long-term sector that is still to participate more … and then also Sovereign so the only Sovereign that we know so far has bought the ETFs is Abu Dhabi Sovereign wealth fund … I’d expect more of that to come through this year as well.”

“有一個非常長期的部門仍將更多地參與……然後是主權，因此我們知道到目前為止購買ETF的唯一主權是阿布扎比主權財富基金……我希望今年也會有更多。”

At press time, BTC is trading at $81,428.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為81,428美元。