当比特币（BTC 0.18％）在12月达到100,000美元

当比特币（BTC 0.18％）在12月达到100,000美元的成绩时，所有灯似乎都在闪烁绿色。许多投资者坚信比特币即将去抛物线。

Bitcoin (BTC) touched the $100,000 mark in December amid a flurry of activity. Many investors appeared to be in a bullish mood and appeared to be convinced that Bitcoin was about to go parabolic.

在一系列活动中，比特币（BTC）在12月触及了100,000美元的成绩。许多投资者似乎有看涨的心情，并且似乎坚信比特币即将抛弃。

Indeed, the cryptocurrency went on to hit a new all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20. But ever since then, Bitcoin has been on the decline, and it now trades around the $83,000 mark.

的确，加密货币在1月20日达到了新的109,000美元的新高点。但是从那时起，比特币一直在下降，现在它的交易价格约为83,000美元。

This astonishing turn of events has led some investors to rethink everything they know about Bitcoin, including the famous "Bitcoin Cycle" investment thesis that claims to predict the next move of the world's most popular cryptocurrency.

这一令人惊讶的事件使一些投资者重新考虑了他们对比特币的了解，包括著名的“比特币周期”投资论文，声称可以预测世界上最受欢迎的加密货币的下一步行动。

What is the Bitcoin Cycle investment thesis?

比特币周期投资论文是什么？

The "Bitcoin Cycle" investment thesis says that Bitcoin tends to follow regular four-year, boom-and-bust cycles. Thus, if you can predict where Bitcoin is in any four-year cycle, you can predict where Bitcoin is headed next. It's so popular that many investors allude to this Bitcoin Cycle, sometimes without even realizing that they've done so.

“比特币周期”的投资论文说，比特币倾向于遵循常规的四年繁荣和障碍周期。因此，如果您可以预测任何四年周期中比特币的位置，则可以预测比特币接下来的发展。它是如此受欢迎，以至于许多投资者都暗示了这个比特币周期，有时甚至没有意识到他们已经这样做。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

There are various versions of this Bitcoin Cycle thesis, but all of them are based on the fact that there is a Bitcoin halving every four years. This is what creates the four-year cycle, during which there are four distinct stages: An Accumulation phase, when Bitcoin is trading at discount prices; a Growth phase, which typically kicks into action as soon as the Bitcoin halving takes place; a Bubble phase, which leads to market euphoria and new all-time highs for Bitcoin; and a Crash phase. This last phase is when Bitcoin loses as much as 80% of its value, and the whole cycle starts anew.

该比特币周期论文的各种版本都是基于以下事实：比特币每四年减半。这就是创造四年周期的原因，在此期间有四个不同的阶段：累积阶段，比特币以折扣价进行交易；一个增长阶段，通常在比特币减半后立即开始行动。一个泡沫阶段，导致市场欣喜和比特币的新历史最高点；和碰撞阶段。最后一个阶段是比特币损失其价值的80％，并且整个周期重新开始。

This pattern has remained remarkably consistent throughout Bitcoin's 15-year history. Just think back to the last crypto bull market rally. It was largely kicked off by the Bitcoin halving that took place in May 2020. That led to stratospheric gains for Bitcoin, which eventually hit a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

在比特币的15年历史中，这种模式一直保持一致。回想一下最后一个加密牛市集会。这在2020年5月发生的比特币减半开始了。这导致了比特币的平流层增长，最终在2021年11月达到了69,000美元的历史高点。

That Bubble phase was soon followed by the Crash phase, and Bitcoin quickly tumbled down to $16,000. The long Crypto Winter of 2022 and early 2023 was the Accumulation phase, when Bitcoin was trading at bargain prices.

泡沫阶段很快就发生了崩溃阶段，比特币迅速下跌至16,000美元。 2022年和2023年初的漫长加密冬季是累积阶段，当时比特币以讨价还价的价格进行交易。

So where are we now in the Bitcoin Cycle?

那么，我们现在在比特币周期中在哪里？

The problem right now is that it's becoming increasingly difficult to tell where we are in the current Bitcoin Cycle. When Bitcoin hit $100,000 last year, for example, it was easy to conclude that we were either in the late Growth or early Bubble phase. Bitcoin was going to skyrocket higher, and go completely parabolic during the Trump administration. People were even predicting that Bitcoin could hit $1 million in this market cycle.

现在的问题是，在当前比特币周期中，判断我们在哪里变得越来越困难。例如，当比特币去年达到100,000美元时，很容易得出结论，我们处于晚期或早期泡沫阶段。比特币将飙升更高，在特朗普政府期间完全抛物线。人们甚至预测比特币在这个市场周期中可能会达到100万美元。

Now, however, a growing number of voices are claiming that we're in the Crash phase. Bitcoin is down more than 20% from its highs in January, and some are now convinced that Bitcoin has further still yet to fall. If Bitcoin loses 80% of its value, as it has done in previous market cycles, then we could be talking about Bitcoin trading near $20,000. No wonder some people are now moving their money into gold!

但是，现在，越来越多的声音声称我们处于崩溃阶段。比特币在一月份的高点下降了20％以上，现在有些比特币确信比特币还没有进一步下降。如果比特币在以前的市场周期中损失了80％的价值，那么我们可能会谈论比特币交易近20,000美元。难怪现在有些人将钱转移到黄金中！

Is the Bitcoin Cycle broken?

比特币周期打破了吗？

The problem, quite frankly, is that Bitcoin doesn't seem to be playing by the same rules anymore. An important clue came in April 2024, when the Bitcoin halving turned out to be a nothing-burger. This event was supposed to unleash the Growth phase of Bitcoin, but nothing really happened to the price of Bitcoin until the U.S. election in November.

坦率地说，问题是比特币似乎不再是相同的规则了。一个重要的线索是在2024年4月，当时比特币减半是一个毫无生气的。该活动本来应该释放比特币的增长阶段，但是直到11月美国大选之前，比特币的价格都没有真正发生。

In hindsight, the launch of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 may have broken the cycle. Bitcoin experienced massive gains in January, February, and March 2024, thanks to the inflow of investor money into these Bitcoin ETFs. Thus, all the gains expected from the halving in April 2024 were actually experienced months earlier, as a result of the ETFs.

事后看来，2024年1月的新现场比特币ETF的推出可能打破了周期。由于投资者资金流入了这些比特币ETF，比特币在1月，2月和2024年3月经历了巨大的收益。因此，由于ETF的结果，实际上在几个月前经历了所有预期的收益。

Some investors are now claiming that U.S. President Donald Trump will break the Bitcoin Cycle once and for all. From this perspective, the boom-and-bust behavior of Bitcoin will soon be over, and we're on the cusp of entering into a perfect Goldilocks period -- gains will be not too high and not too low, they will be just right.

一些投资者现在声称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将一劳永逸地打破比特币周期。从这个角度来看，比特币的繁荣行为很快就会结束，我们正处于进入完美的Goldilocks时期的风口浪尖 - 收益不会太高，而且不会太低，它们将是正确的。

Yet others claim that the "Bitcoin Cycle" will soon transform into the "Bitcoin Super Cycle" and that we're headed for dramatic, head-spinning gains for Bitcoin, without any real risk of a significant downturn, for years to come.

还有其他人声称，“比特币周期”将很快转变为“比特币超级周期”，并且我们将迈向比特币的戏剧性，旋转的收益，而在未来几年中，没有任何真正的衰退风险。

Investor takeaways

投资者要点

Confused yet? It's easy to be, because nearly everyone

困惑了吗？很容易成为，因为几乎每个人