當比特幣（BTC 0.18％）在12月達到100,000美元

當比特幣（BTC 0.18％）在12月達到100,000美元的成績時，所有燈似乎都在閃爍綠色。許多投資者堅信比特幣即將去拋物線。

Bitcoin (BTC) touched the $100,000 mark in December amid a flurry of activity. Many investors appeared to be in a bullish mood and appeared to be convinced that Bitcoin was about to go parabolic.

在一系列活動中，比特幣（BTC）在12月觸及了100,000美元的成績。許多投資者似乎有看漲的心情，並且似乎堅信比特幣即將拋棄。

Indeed, the cryptocurrency went on to hit a new all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20. But ever since then, Bitcoin has been on the decline, and it now trades around the $83,000 mark.

的確，加密貨幣在1月20日達到了新的109,000美元的新高點。但是從那時起，比特幣一直在下降，現在它的交易價格約為83,000美元。

This astonishing turn of events has led some investors to rethink everything they know about Bitcoin, including the famous "Bitcoin Cycle" investment thesis that claims to predict the next move of the world's most popular cryptocurrency.

這一令人驚訝的事件使一些投資者重新考慮了他們對比特幣的了解，包括著名的“比特幣週期”投資論文，聲稱可以預測世界上最受歡迎的加密貨幣的下一步行動。

What is the Bitcoin Cycle investment thesis?

比特幣週期投資論文是什麼？

The "Bitcoin Cycle" investment thesis says that Bitcoin tends to follow regular four-year, boom-and-bust cycles. Thus, if you can predict where Bitcoin is in any four-year cycle, you can predict where Bitcoin is headed next. It's so popular that many investors allude to this Bitcoin Cycle, sometimes without even realizing that they've done so.

“比特幣週期”的投資論文說，比特幣傾向於遵循常規的四年繁榮和障礙週期。因此，如果您可以預測任何四年周期中比特幣的位置，則可以預測比特幣接下來的發展。它是如此受歡迎，以至於許多投資者都暗示了這個比特幣週期，有時甚至沒有意識到他們已經這樣做。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

There are various versions of this Bitcoin Cycle thesis, but all of them are based on the fact that there is a Bitcoin halving every four years. This is what creates the four-year cycle, during which there are four distinct stages: An Accumulation phase, when Bitcoin is trading at discount prices; a Growth phase, which typically kicks into action as soon as the Bitcoin halving takes place; a Bubble phase, which leads to market euphoria and new all-time highs for Bitcoin; and a Crash phase. This last phase is when Bitcoin loses as much as 80% of its value, and the whole cycle starts anew.

該比特幣週期論文的各種版本都是基於以下事實：比特幣每四年減半。這就是創造四年周期的原因，在此期間有四個不同的階段：累積階段，比特幣以折扣價進行交易；一個增長階段，通常在比特幣減半後立即開始行動。一個泡沫階段，導致市場欣喜和比特幣的新歷史最高點；和碰撞階段。最後一個階段是比特幣損失其價值的80％，並且整個週期重新開始。

This pattern has remained remarkably consistent throughout Bitcoin's 15-year history. Just think back to the last crypto bull market rally. It was largely kicked off by the Bitcoin halving that took place in May 2020. That led to stratospheric gains for Bitcoin, which eventually hit a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.

在比特幣的15年曆史中，這種模式一直保持一致。回想一下最後一個加密牛市集會。這在2020年5月發生的比特幣減半開始了。這導致了比特幣的平流層增長，最終在2021年11月達到了69,000美元的歷史高點。

That Bubble phase was soon followed by the Crash phase, and Bitcoin quickly tumbled down to $16,000. The long Crypto Winter of 2022 and early 2023 was the Accumulation phase, when Bitcoin was trading at bargain prices.

泡沫階段很快就發生了崩潰階段，比特幣迅速下跌至16,000美元。 2022年和2023年初的漫長加密冬季是累積階段，當時比特幣以討價還價的價格進行交易。

So where are we now in the Bitcoin Cycle?

那麼，我們現在在比特幣週期中在哪裡？

The problem right now is that it's becoming increasingly difficult to tell where we are in the current Bitcoin Cycle. When Bitcoin hit $100,000 last year, for example, it was easy to conclude that we were either in the late Growth or early Bubble phase. Bitcoin was going to skyrocket higher, and go completely parabolic during the Trump administration. People were even predicting that Bitcoin could hit $1 million in this market cycle.

現在的問題是，在當前比特幣週期中，判斷我們在哪裡變得越來越困難。例如，當比特幣去年達到100,000美元時，很容易得出結論，我們處於晚期或早期泡沫階段。比特幣將飆升更高，在特朗普政府期間完全拋物線。人們甚至預測比特幣在這個市場週期中可能會達到100萬美元。

Now, however, a growing number of voices are claiming that we're in the Crash phase. Bitcoin is down more than 20% from its highs in January, and some are now convinced that Bitcoin has further still yet to fall. If Bitcoin loses 80% of its value, as it has done in previous market cycles, then we could be talking about Bitcoin trading near $20,000. No wonder some people are now moving their money into gold!

但是，現在，越來越多的聲音聲稱我們處於崩潰階段。比特幣在一月份的高點下降了20％以上，現在有些比特幣確信比特幣還沒有進一步下降。如果比特幣在以前的市場週期中損失了80％的價值，那麼我們可能會談論比特幣交易近20,000美元。難怪現在有些人將錢轉移到黃金中！

Is the Bitcoin Cycle broken?

比特幣週期打破了嗎？

The problem, quite frankly, is that Bitcoin doesn't seem to be playing by the same rules anymore. An important clue came in April 2024, when the Bitcoin halving turned out to be a nothing-burger. This event was supposed to unleash the Growth phase of Bitcoin, but nothing really happened to the price of Bitcoin until the U.S. election in November.

坦率地說，問題是比特幣似乎不再是相同的規則了。一個重要的線索是在2024年4月，當時比特幣減半是一個毫無生氣的。該活動本來應該釋放比特幣的增長階段，但是直到11月美國大選之前，比特幣的價格都沒有真正發生。

In hindsight, the launch of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 may have broken the cycle. Bitcoin experienced massive gains in January, February, and March 2024, thanks to the inflow of investor money into these Bitcoin ETFs. Thus, all the gains expected from the halving in April 2024 were actually experienced months earlier, as a result of the ETFs.

事後看來，2024年1月的新現場比特幣ETF的推出可能打破了周期。由於投資者資金流入了這些比特幣ETF，比特幣在1月，2月和2024年3月經歷了巨大的收益。因此，由於ETF的結果，實際上在幾個月前經歷了所有預期的收益。

Some investors are now claiming that U.S. President Donald Trump will break the Bitcoin Cycle once and for all. From this perspective, the boom-and-bust behavior of Bitcoin will soon be over, and we're on the cusp of entering into a perfect Goldilocks period -- gains will be not too high and not too low, they will be just right.

一些投資者現在聲稱，美國總統唐納德·特朗普將一勞永逸地打破比特幣週期。從這個角度來看，比特幣的繁榮行為很快就會結束，我們正處於進入完美的Goldilocks時期的風口浪尖 - 收益不會太高，而且不會太低，它們將是正確的。

Yet others claim that the "Bitcoin Cycle" will soon transform into the "Bitcoin Super Cycle" and that we're headed for dramatic, head-spinning gains for Bitcoin, without any real risk of a significant downturn, for years to come.

還有其他人聲稱，“比特幣週期”將很快轉變為“比特幣超級週期”，並且我們將邁向比特幣的戲劇性，旋轉的收益，而在未來幾年中，沒有任何真正的衰退風險。

Investor takeaways

投資者要點

Confused yet? It's easy to be, because nearly everyone

困惑了嗎？很容易成為，因為幾乎每個人