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摩根大通最近的一份研究报告表明,比特币(BTC)和黄金可能会从即将到来的美国总统大选中受益匪浅
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Price May Hit New Highs Before the Upcoming US Election. Good Time to Buy the Dip?
比特币价格分析:在即将到来的美国大选之前,比特币价格可能会创下新高。逢低买入的好时机?
Bitcoin price fell below a crucial support level as the Iran-Israel tension sparks a liquidation of $250 million in futures positions, dragging BTC price to $61k. At press time, Bitcoin was down by 6% in the last seven days.
由于伊朗和以色列的紧张局势引发了 2.5 亿美元的期货头寸清算,比特币价格跌破了关键支撑位,将比特币价格拖至 6.1 万美元。截至发稿,比特币在过去 7 天内下跌了 6%。
A recent JPMorgan research report suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold could significantly benefit from the upcoming US presidential election and the existing geopolitical risks. According to the lead analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Donald Trump’s win could reinforce “debasement trade.”
摩根大通最近的一份研究报告表明,比特币(BTC)和黄金可能会从即将到来的美国总统大选和现有的地缘政治风险中受益匪浅。首席分析师尼古拉斯·帕尼吉尔佐格鲁 (Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) 表示,唐纳德·特朗普的胜利可能会强化“贬值贸易”。
“A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the ‘debasement trade’ both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and an expansionary fiscal policy (‘debt debasement’).”
“特别是特朗普的胜利,除了从监管角度支持比特币之外,还可能通过关税(地缘政治紧张局势)和扩张性财政政策(‘债务贬值’)强化‘贬值贸易’。”
According to the report, the market has yet to price the probability of Trump’s victory. The reason is that traders are currently focused on the ongoing market pullback.
报道称,市场尚未对特朗普获胜的可能性进行定价。原因是交易员目前关注的是持续的市场回调。
Taking a cue from the 2016 US election that saw Bitcoin skyrocketing to an all-time high price of nearly $20,000 in December 2017, JPMorgan believes that the shift from the upcoming event could have a larger impact. This time around, there could be higher US Treasury yields, outperformance of the stock market, a stronger dollar, and tighter credit spreads.
受 2016 年美国大选的启发,比特币在 2017 年 12 月飙升至近 20,000 美元的历史新高,摩根大通认为,即将举行的大选的转变可能会产生更大的影响。这一次,美国国债收益率可能会更高,股市表现将优于股市,美元走强,信用利差收窄。
Based on data, the 2016 US election saw the 5-year Treasury yields rising by 1% in the six-month window, while the Dollar Index (DXY) also rose by 8%. In addition to that, U.S. equities surged by 6%.
数据显示,2016年美国大选后,5年期国债收益率在六个月内上涨了1%,美元指数(DXY)也上涨了8%。此外,美国股市上涨 6%。
Bitcoin Price May Drop Below $60k Before the Weekend – Standard Chartered
周末前比特币价格可能跌破 6 万美元 – 渣打银行
Investment bank Standard Chartered now expects the Middle East conflict to cause the Bitcoin price to fall below $60k before the weekend. To them, it would be rewarding to purchase the dip.
投资银行渣打银行目前预计,中东冲突将导致比特币价格在周末前跌破 6 万美元。对他们来说,购买这种股票是值得的。
“We find that gold is a geopolitical hedge, while BTC is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues.”
“我们发现黄金是一种地缘政治对冲工具,而比特币则是对冲银行倒闭或去美元化/美国国债问题等 TradFi 问题的对冲工具。”
Contrary to Bitcoin’s recognition as a hedge against inflation, Standard Chartered clarified in its report that the asset is not a safe haven against geopolitical risk.
与比特币被认为是对冲通胀的工具相反,渣打银行在其报告中澄清,该资产并不是抵御地缘政治风险的避风港。
“We find that gold is a geopolitical hedge, while BTC is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues.”
“我们发现黄金是一种地缘政治对冲工具,而比特币则是对冲银行倒闭或去美元化/美国国债问题等 TradFi 问题的对冲工具。”
Similar to JPMorgan’s position, Standard Chartered Bank mentioned that Trump’s probability of winning the upcoming election could offset the impact of the geopolitical tension that is currently weighing down on the price of Bitcoin.
与摩根大通的立场类似,渣打银行也提到,特朗普赢得即将到来的选举的可能性可能会抵消目前打压比特币价格的地缘政治紧张局势的影响。
In a CNF analysis of market data, we observed that the open interest for the Bitcoin December expiry at 80,000 is fast-rising. Meanwhile, institutional investors are also purchasing the asset aggressively, according to the chief analyst of Bitget Research, Ryan Lee.
在 CNF 对市场数据的分析中,我们观察到 12 月到期的比特币持仓量在 80,000 美元快速上升。与此同时,Bitget Research 首席分析师 Ryan Lee 表示,机构投资者也在积极购买该资产。
“Despite the general downturn, institutional investors continue to buy digital currency at a rate at par or higher than the quantity mined daily. In the past ten days, whales are reported to have purchased about 50,000 BTC ($3.15 billion). At $60.1k, the asset tested the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to establish strong historical support.”
“尽管整体经济低迷,机构投资者仍继续以等于或高于每日开采量的价格购买数字货币。据报道,在过去 10 天里,鲸鱼购买了约 50,000 BTC(31.5 亿美元)。该资产以 60,100 美元测试了 200 天指数移动平均线 (EMA),以建立强大的历史支撑。”
According to analysts, BTC would have to secure the 1-day 200 moving average (MA) at $63,600 to trigger an upsurge.
分析师表示,BTC 必须守住 63,600 美元的 1 日 200 移动平均线 (MA) 才能引发上涨。
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