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摩根大通最近的一份研究報告表明,比特幣(BTC)和黃金可能會從即將到來的美國總統大選中受益匪淺
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Price May Hit New Highs Before the Upcoming US Election. Good Time to Buy the Dip?
比特幣價格分析:在即將到來的美國大選之前,比特幣價格可能會創下新高。逢低買進的好時機?
Bitcoin price fell below a crucial support level as the Iran-Israel tension sparks a liquidation of $250 million in futures positions, dragging BTC price to $61k. At press time, Bitcoin was down by 6% in the last seven days.
由於伊朗和以色列的緊張局勢引發了 2.5 億美元的期貨部位清算,比特幣價格跌破了關鍵支撐位,將比特幣價格拖至 6.1 萬美元。截至發稿,比特幣在過去 7 天內下跌了 6%。
A recent JPMorgan research report suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold could significantly benefit from the upcoming US presidential election and the existing geopolitical risks. According to the lead analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Donald Trump’s win could reinforce “debasement trade.”
摩根大通最近的一份研究報告表明,比特幣(BTC)和黃金可能會從即將到來的美國總統大選和現有的地緣政治風險中受益匪淺。首席分析師尼古拉斯·帕尼吉爾佐格魯 (Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) 表示,唐納德·川普的勝利可能會強化「貶值貿易」。
“A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the ‘debasement trade’ both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and an expansionary fiscal policy (‘debt debasement’).”
「特別是川普的勝利,除了從監管角度支持比特幣之外,還可能透過關稅(地緣政治緊張局勢)和擴張性財政政策(『債務貶值』)強化『貶值貿易』。”
According to the report, the market has yet to price the probability of Trump’s victory. The reason is that traders are currently focused on the ongoing market pullback.
報道稱,市場尚未對川普獲勝的可能性進行定價。原因是交易員目前關注的是持續的市場回調。
Taking a cue from the 2016 US election that saw Bitcoin skyrocketing to an all-time high price of nearly $20,000 in December 2017, JPMorgan believes that the shift from the upcoming event could have a larger impact. This time around, there could be higher US Treasury yields, outperformance of the stock market, a stronger dollar, and tighter credit spreads.
受 2016 年美國大選的啟發,比特幣在 2017 年 12 月飆升至近 20,000 美元的歷史新高,摩根大通認為,即將舉行的大選的轉變可能會產生更大的影響。這次,美國公債殖利率可能會更高,股市表現將優於股市,美元走強,信用利差收窄。
Based on data, the 2016 US election saw the 5-year Treasury yields rising by 1% in the six-month window, while the Dollar Index (DXY) also rose by 8%. In addition to that, U.S. equities surged by 6%.
數據顯示,2016年美國大選後,5年期公債殖利率在六個月內上漲了1%,美元指數(DXY)也上漲了8%。此外,美國股市上漲 6%。
Bitcoin Price May Drop Below $60k Before the Weekend – Standard Chartered
週末前比特幣價格可能跌破 6 萬美元 – 渣打銀行
Investment bank Standard Chartered now expects the Middle East conflict to cause the Bitcoin price to fall below $60k before the weekend. To them, it would be rewarding to purchase the dip.
投資銀行渣打銀行目前預計,中東衝突將導致比特幣價格在周末前跌破 6 萬美元。對他們來說,買這種股票是值得的。
“We find that gold is a geopolitical hedge, while BTC is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues.”
“我們發現黃金是一種地緣政治對沖工具,而比特幣是對沖銀行倒閉或去美元化/美國國債問題等 TradFi 問題的對沖工具。”
Contrary to Bitcoin’s recognition as a hedge against inflation, Standard Chartered clarified in its report that the asset is not a safe haven against geopolitical risk.
與比特幣被認為是對沖通膨的工具相反,渣打銀行在其報告中澄清,該資產並不是抵禦地緣政治風險的避風港。
“We find that gold is a geopolitical hedge, while BTC is a hedge against TradFi issues such as bank collapses or de-dollarisation/U.S. Treasury issues.”
“我們發現黃金是一種地緣政治對沖工具,而比特幣是對沖銀行倒閉或去美元化/美國國債問題等 TradFi 問題的對沖工具。”
Similar to JPMorgan’s position, Standard Chartered Bank mentioned that Trump’s probability of winning the upcoming election could offset the impact of the geopolitical tension that is currently weighing down on the price of Bitcoin.
與摩根大通的立場類似,渣打銀行也提到,川普贏得即將到來的選舉的可能性可能會抵消目前打壓比特幣價格的地緣政治緊張局勢的影響。
In a CNF analysis of market data, we observed that the open interest for the Bitcoin December expiry at 80,000 is fast-rising. Meanwhile, institutional investors are also purchasing the asset aggressively, according to the chief analyst of Bitget Research, Ryan Lee.
在 CNF 對市場數據的分析中,我們觀察到 12 月到期的比特幣持股量在 8 萬美元快速上升。同時,Bitget Research 首席分析師 Ryan Lee 表示,機構投資者也積極購買該資產。
“Despite the general downturn, institutional investors continue to buy digital currency at a rate at par or higher than the quantity mined daily. In the past ten days, whales are reported to have purchased about 50,000 BTC ($3.15 billion). At $60.1k, the asset tested the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to establish strong historical support.”
「儘管整體經濟低迷,機構投資者仍繼續以等於或高於每日開採量的價格購買數位貨幣。據報道,在過去 10 天裡,鯨魚購買了約 50,000 BTC(31.5 億美元)。該資產以 60,100 美元測試了 200 天指數移動平均線 (EMA),以建立強大的歷史支撐。
According to analysts, BTC would have to secure the 1-day 200 moving average (MA) at $63,600 to trigger an upsurge.
分析師表示,BTC 必須守住 63,600 美元的 1 日 200 移動平均線 (MA) 才能引發上漲。
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