比特币 (BTC) 期货未平仓合约接近 $60B，价格逼近 $100K

随着比特币 (BTC) 的价格逐渐接近 10 万美元的心理里程碑，其对衍生品市场的影响正成为焦点。

As Bitcoin’s (BTC) price edges closer to the psychological milestone of $100,000, its impact on derivatives markets is becoming a key focus. While retail investors celebrate such milestones, the real significance lies in the institutional adoption and evolution of Bitcoin’s derivatives infrastructure.

随着比特币 (BTC) 的价格逼近 10 万美元的心理里程碑，其对衍生品市场的影响正成为焦点。尽管散户投资者庆祝这些里程碑，但真正的意义在于比特币衍生品基础设施的机构采用和演变。

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest stands at 626,520 BTC ($58 billion), a 15% increase over the past two months, according to CoinGlass. If Bitcoin (BTC) hits $100,000, this open interest could climb to $62.5 billion, representing 3.1% of Bitcoin’s projected $2 trillion market cap. Comparatively, the S&P 500 futures open interest of $817 billion constitutes only 1.9% of its $43 trillion market cap, highlighting Bitcoin’s (BTC) disproportionate derivatives activity relative to traditional assets.

根据 CoinGlass 的数据，目前比特币 (BTC) 期货未平仓合约为 626,520 BTC（580 亿美元），比过去两个月增加了 15%。如果比特币 (BTC) 达到 10 万美元，未平仓合约可能会攀升至 625 亿美元，占比特币预计 2 万亿美元市值的 3.1%。相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数期货未平仓合约为 8170 亿美元，仅占其 43 万亿美元市值的 1.9%，突显比特币 (BTC) 的衍生品活动相对于传统资产不成比例。

This dynamic underscores the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin futures, especially as spot Bitcoin ETFs and ETF options prepare to enter the market. These products are expected to create new pathways for institutional players, enabling advanced strategies like covered calls and liquidity risk hedging.

这种动态凸显了机构对比特币期货日益增长的兴趣，特别是在现货比特币 ETF 和 ETF 期权准备进入市场之际。这些产品预计将为机构参与者创造新的途径，实现备兑看涨期权和流动性风险对冲等先进策略。

Institutional interest is pivotal in transforming Bitcoin’s (BTC) $100,000 milestone into a meaningful derivatives market expansion. Recent regulatory developments, including approvals for spot Bitcoin ETF options, mark progress but remain insufficient deeper integration into traditional financial markets.

机构利益对于将比特币 (BTC) 的 10 万美元里程碑转变为有意义的衍生品市场扩张至关重要。最近的监管进展，包括批准现货比特币 ETF 期权，标志着进展，但仍不足以更深入地融入传统金融市场。

Historical examples illustrate the challenge of adoption. The CBOE discontinued its Bitcoin futures offering in 2019 due to low demand, emphasizing the need for sustained institutional engagement. Spot ETFs, particularly those offering in-kind creation, could bridge this gap, attracting institutional investors who view Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

历史例子说明了采用的挑战。由于需求低迷，芝加哥期权交易所于 2019 年停止了比特币期货发行，强调需要机构持续参与。现货ETF，特别是那些提供实物ETF的ETF，可以弥补这一差距，吸引将比特币视为储备资产的机构投资者。

Several developments could catalyze Bitcoin’s rise and derivatives market expansion:

一些发展可能会促进比特币的崛起和衍生品市场的扩张：

Corporate Bitcoin Allocation: Microsoft shareholders recently voted on allocating funds to Bitcoin (BTC), signaling growing acceptance among influential corporate players. Such moves could pressure other corporations to consider similar strategies.

企业比特币配置：微软股东最近投票决定将资金分配给比特币（BTC），这表明有影响力的企业参与者的接受度越来越高。此类举措可能会迫使其他公司考虑类似的策略。

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed converting Treasury gold certificates into Bitcoin, aiming to acquire 1 million BTC—5% of the total supply—as a 20-year reserve. This initiative could solidify Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset and spur broader institutional interest.

比特币战略储备：美国参议员 Cynthia Lummis 提议将财政部黄金凭证转换为比特币，目标是购买 100 万枚 BTC（占总供应量的 5%）作为 20 年储备。这一举措可以巩固比特币作为储备资产的作用，并激发更广泛的机构兴趣。

Bitcoin’s derivatives markets are likely to expand as a result of broader adoption rather than drive it directly. Institutional and retail fears of fiat debasement remain the primary drivers pushing Bitcoin higher. Research by Lyn Alden correlates Bitcoin’s price with the global M2 money supply, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against monetary debasement.

比特币的衍生品市场可能会因更广泛的采用而扩大，而不是直接推动它。机构和散户对法定货币贬值的担忧仍然是推动比特币走高的主要驱动力。 Lyn Alden 的研究将比特币的价格与全球 M2 货币供应量联系起来，增强了其作为对冲货币贬值的吸引力。

As Bitcoin solidifies its role in institutional portfolios, a mature and liquid derivatives market will emerge organically, serving as a reflection of its broader adoption and acceptance in traditional finance.

随着比特币在机构投资组合中的作用得到巩固，一个成熟且流动性强的衍生品市场将有机出现，这反映了比特币在传统金融中更广泛的采用和接受。