比特币（BTC）会翻转黄金吗？听起来比听起来更有可能

比特币（BTC 0.96％）助推器有时将加密货币称为数字黄金，因为其稀缺和供应有限。但是，这比有一天流通的所有实际黄金还要多吗？

Bitcoin (BTC 0.96%) boosters sometimes refer to the cryptocurrency as digital gold because of its scarcity and limited supply. But could it be worth more than all of the actual gold that's in circulation someday?

比特币（BTC 0.96％）助推器有时将加密货币称为数字黄金，因为其稀缺和供应有限。但是，这比有一天流通的所有实际黄金还要多吗？

It's a lot more likely than it sounds. It might even be inevitable. Here's what would need to occur for it to actually happen.

听起来比听起来更有可能。甚至可能是不可避免的。这是实际发生的需要发生的事情。

The math is the least important part of this equation

数学是该方程中最不重要的部分

For Bitcoin to flip gold, it would need to become much more valuable, but that's not as meaningful as it may seem.

为了使比特币翻转黄金，它需要变得更有价值，但这并不像看起来那样有意义。

Today, Bitcoin's market cap is approaching $1.7 trillion. The total market cap of gold is close to $20.1 trillion based on recent prices. Therefore Bitcoin's price would need to rise by a bit more than 12.2 times where it is right now to have the same total value as gold. In other words, the price for each coin would need to be higher than $1 million to confirm that a flipping had occurred (Bitcoin now is valued at about $84,000 per coin).

如今，比特币的市值接近1.7万亿美元。根据最近的价格，黄金的总市值接近20.1万亿美元。因此，比特币的价格将需要上涨超过12.2倍，而现在拥有与黄金相同的总价值。换句话说，每枚硬币的价格都必须高于100万美元，以确认发生了翻转（现在比特币的价值约为每枚硬币84,000美元）。

Bitcoin's value rose by about 1,460% during the past five years. Therefore the asset, at least in recent history, is more than capable of growing by the necessary amount to be worth more than gold. But the more important thing to recognize is that the drivers for that immense growth are still in place, which is why the flipping is actually a real possibility.

在过去的五年中，比特币的价值上升了约1,460％。因此，至少在最近的历史中，资产具有比黄金更多的价值增长的能力。但是，要认识到的更重要的是，巨大增长的驱动因素仍然存在，这就是为什么翻转实际上是一种实际可能性的原因。

People buy and hold gold because it's expected to retain its value over time, even in harsh economic conditions, and even if phenomena like inflation erode the value of the fiat currencies that it can be sold for. That works because gold is scarce, as it requires significant investment of effort to mine and refine. Another factor is that it's tradeable on deeply liquid global markets, so there is a very high probability of sellers finding a buyer even during economic turmoil. Another reason gold holds value is because gold is a necessary material for real-world applications like manufacturing cellphones.

人们购买和持有黄金是因为预计即使在恶劣的经济条件下也会保留其价值，即使像通货膨胀这样的现象侵蚀了可以出售的法定货币的价值。之所以起作用，是因为黄金稀缺，因为它需要大量的挖掘和精炼投资。另一个因素是它可以在深层液体全球市场上进行交易，因此，即使在经济动荡期间，卖方也很可能找到买家。黄金之所以具有价值的另一个原因是，黄金是制造手机等现实世界应用的必要材料。

So it serves as a store of value, a medium of exchange, and as something with utility as well. But it isn't necessarily the easiest asset to hold or use from an investor's perspective.

因此，它可以用作价值存储，交换媒介以及实用程序的东西。但这不一定是从投资者的角度持有或使用的最简单资产。

Physical gold needs to be securely stored, and it's fairly awkward to liquidate when needed compared to a stock or cryptocurrency. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that grant investors exposure to gold charge annual fees. Claims to gold held in a bank's vault may not be easily tradeable, and they require a lot of trust in a third party.

实物黄金需要牢固存储，与股票或加密货币相比，在需要时清算相当尴尬。交易所交易的基金（ETF），授予投资者接触黄金费用年费。在银行金库中持有的黄金的主张可能不容易交易，他们需要对第三方进行很多信任。

Bitcoin doesn't suffer from those problems. Sure, it has other problems, like its much higher volatility and its relatively limited utility value. But the main sources of its value, the difficulty of mining it and its inherent scarcity, clearly resonate with the world's investors, given the asset's meteoric rise since its launch in 2009.

比特币不会遭受这些问题的困扰。当然，它还有其他问题，例如其更高的波动性和相对有限的公用事业价值。但是，鉴于自2009年推出以来，其价值的主要来源，挖掘矿山的困难和固有的稀缺性，显然引起了世界投资者的共鸣。

And it's only going to become produced at lower and lower volumes over time.

随着时间的流逝，它只会在较低和较低的体积中产生。

Will this actually happen?

这实际上会发生吗？

For Bitcoin to flip gold's value, it'll need to continue being adopted and held by the world's financial institutions, governments, and investors.

为了使比特币要翻转黄金的价值，它将需要继续被世界金融机构，政府和投资者采用和持有。

That means more governments will need to initiate and actually adopt policies like the planned U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which is itself not yet implemented. Bitcoin will also need to continue deepening its links with the traditional financial sector via ongoing approvals of new ETFs holding it, as well as ETFs that hold it in addition to other cryptocurrencies. In practice, banks and other financial players will be the ones driving that shift.

这意味着更多的政府将需要启动并实际采用计划中的美国战略比特币储备等政策，该保存比特币储备本身尚未实施。比特币还需要通过对持有的新ETF以及其他加密货币之外的ETF进行持续的批准，还需要继续加深与传统金融部门的联系。实际上，银行和其他财务参与者将是驾驶转变的人。

Today, an estimated106 million people hold the coin, so there's plenty of adults in the world it could attract during the coming years, meaning that there's a lot of additional capital that could flow in. As buying Bitcoin becomes even more accessible to investors than it has been, more and more will want to get a little bit of exposure to it. And, if the price continues rising over time, as it has throughout its life so far, that will be powerful advertising that entices more people to buy and hold it forever.

如今，估计有1,060万人拥有硬币，因此在接下来的几年中，世界上有很多成年人可以吸引，这意味着有很多额外的资本可以流入。由于购买比特币的投资者比投资者更容易获得，因此越来越多的人希望获得一点曝光。而且，如果价格随着时间的流逝而持续上涨，那么到目前为止的一生中，这将是有力的广告，可以诱使更多的人永远购买和持有它。

So could Bitcoin become a bigger asset than gold someday? Yes, it could, but there's not much point in putting a timeline on it. The best move is to slowly build up a position and retain it, and then you will get the benefit of its growth over the long term even if it takes years to flip gold.

那么，比特币有一天能比黄金更大吗？是的，它可以，但是在上面放置时间表没有太多意义。最好的举动是慢慢建立一个职位并保留它，然后即使花费数年的时间翻转黄金，您也将从长远来看。