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在 10 月初跌入 6 万美元区域后,比特币在周末反弹至 6.3 万美元大关,并最终在周一超越了该水平。
Bitcoin price dropped into the $60K zone at the beginning of October before bouncing back to the $63K level over the weekend. On Monday, BTC price eventually moved past this level, as highlighted by Glassnode data.
比特币价格在 10 月初跌至 6 万美元区域,然后在周末反弹至 6.3 万美元水平。正如 Glassnode 数据所强调的那样,周一,比特币价格最终突破了这一水平。
This price point coincides with the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which serves as a crucial gauge for the market's short-term health. If Bitcoin fails to hold above this level at $62.5K, recent buyers may face significant pressure.
这个价格点与短期持有者(STH)成本基础一致,这是衡量市场短期健康状况的重要指标。如果比特币未能保持在 6.25 万美元这一水平之上,近期买家可能会面临巨大压力。
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $62,380, a slight decrease from the STH cost basis, as the price attempts to reclaim and maintain this level.
截至发稿时,比特币交易价格为 62,380 美元,较 STH 成本基础略有下降,因为价格试图恢复并维持这一水平。
With Bitcoin price hovering around the STH cost basis, the market appears to be at a crossroads. However, Glassnode points out that the 26% drawdown from the highs above $73K this year is noteworthy but not catastrophic.
随着比特币价格徘徊在 STH 成本基础附近,市场似乎正处于十字路口。然而,Glassnode 指出,今年从 7.3 万美元以上的高点下跌 26% 值得注意,但并不是灾难性的。
According to the report, this decline is less severe than those observed by BTC in previous cycles.
报告称,这一跌幅没有 BTC 在之前周期中观察到的严重。
Despite this, the past few months have seen some of the most bearish conditions since the FTX market implosion in Q4 2022, likely influenced by economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Notably, Bitcoin has declined by 12% since April.
尽管如此,过去几个月出现了自 2022 年第四季度 FTX 市场崩溃以来最悲观的情况,这可能是受到经济不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势的影响。值得注意的是,自 4 月份以来,比特币已下跌 12%。
Bitcoin STHs largely contribute to the near-term price action, and currently, Short-Term Holders (STHs) are in a profitable position.
比特币 STH 在很大程度上对近期价格走势做出了贡献,目前,短期持有者 (STH) 处于有利可图的位置。
The ratio of STHs' supply in profit to their supply in loss currently stands at 1.2.
STH 的盈利供应与亏损供应之比目前为 1.2。
Furthermore, the STH-MVRV ratio, which measures the unrealized gains or losses of short-term holders, has also bounced back following a dip in August, indicating that newer entrants in the Bitcoin market are experiencing increasing profitability.
此外,衡量短期持有者未实现收益或损失的 STH-MVRV 比率在 8 月份下跌后也出现反弹,这表明比特币市场的新进入者正在经历盈利能力的提高。
However, as gains accumulate, there is a growing incentive for STHs to lock in profits, potentially leading to selling pressure if BTC fails to maintain its current price levels.
然而,随着收益的积累,STH 锁定利润的动力越来越大,如果 BTC 未能维持当前的价格水平,可能会导致抛售压力。
Two More Price Points Indicate Bitcoin Market Health
另外两个价格点表明比特币市场健康
In addition to the STH cost basis at $62.5K, Glassnode highlights two more price points that are crucial in assessing the market health: the True Market Mean at $47K and the Active Investor Price at $52.5K.
除了 6.25 万美元的 STH 成本基础之外,Glassnode 还强调了另外两个对于评估市场健康状况至关重要的价格点:真实市场均值 4.7 万美元和活跃投资者价格 5.25 万美元。
Throughout 2024, Bitcoin price has largely remained above these two levels, except for a brief dip below the Active Investor Price due to selling pressure in August.
整个 2024 年,比特币价格基本上保持在这两个水平之上,除了 8 月份由于抛售压力而短暂跌破活跃投资者价格之外。
Bitcoin's position above these support levels indicates that the market is still healthy and capable of handling retracements.
比特币高于这些支撑位的位置表明市场仍然健康并且有能力应对回调。
The report also notes a decline in speculative activity within the derivatives market. The weekly cost of leverage for long positions, which peaked at $120M during BTC's all-time high in March, has now dropped to a mere $15.3M.
报告还指出衍生品市场内的投机活动有所下降。多头头寸的每周杠杆成本在 3 月份 BTC 创下历史新高期间曾达到 1.2 亿美元的峰值,目前已降至仅 1530 万美元。
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