比特币（BTC）2月周期回顾与2025年预测：历史会重演吗？

从历史上看，二月通常是比特币减半后几年表现强劲的月份。作者：白话区块链。

Author: @arndxt_xo

作者：@arndxt_xo

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

编译：白话区块链

Historically, February has been a strong month for Bitcoin in the years following the halving

从历史上看，二月是比特币减半后几年表现强劲的月份

1. Cycle review and forecast

1、周期回顾与预测

1) Review of the 2017 and 2021 cycles

1）2017年和2021年周期回顾

2017: Bitcoin experienced a pullback in January but resumed its uptrend in February.

2017年：比特币在1月份经历了回调，但在2月份恢复了上涨趋势。

2021: Similarly, BTC resumed its upward trend in February after falling in January.

2021年：同样，BTC在1月份下跌后，在2月份恢复了上涨趋势。

2) Forecast for 2025

2) 2025年预测

If history repeats itself, a similar rally could come this February.

如果历史重演，今年二月可能会出现类似的反弹。

3) Market rumors and potential driving factors

3）市场传闻及潜在驱动因素

Recently, market speculation about executive orders related to Bitcoin has continued to heat up.

近期，市场对比特币相关行政命令的猜测持续升温。

While this has yet to be confirmed, history suggests that such events often provide a significant boost to markets.

尽管这一点尚未得到证实，但历史表明此类事件往往会对市场产生重大推动作用。

Next, we will conduct an in-depth analysis of the performance of each field 👇🧵

接下来我们将对各个领域的表现进行深度分析👇🧵

2. Industry Overview

2、行业概况

1) Infrastructure & Interoperability

1) 基础设施和互操作性

Reducing network tribalism and enabling cross-chain connectivity

减少网络部落主义并实现跨链连接

Development Trends:

发展趋势：

Superposition (Arbitrum L3) and Abstract (Hydra with Stargate integration) are launching more efficient asset transfer and data sharing solutions.

Superposition（Arbitrum L3）和 Abstract（Hydra 与 Stargate 集成）正在推出更高效的资产转移和数据共享解决方案。

LayerZero expands its influence, allowing applications on Superposition to obtain liquidity from more than 100 connected chains.

LayerZero 扩大了影响力，允许 Superposition 上的应用程序从 100 多个连接的链中获取流动性。

Arcana Network has partnered with Scroll to allow users to pay gas fees with stablecoins (USDC/USDT) on any chain, greatly simplifying the user's onboarding process.

Arcana Network 与 Scroll 合作，允许用户在任意链上使用稳定币（USDC/USDT）支付 Gas 费，极大简化了用户的入门流程。

Viewpoint:

观点：

These developments show that the momentum for cross-chain interoperability continues to grow. From L1 to L2 to L3, seamless movement of assets and data is gradually becoming a basic requirement of the industry.

这些发展表明跨链互操作性的势头持续增长。从L1到L2再到L3，资产和数据的无缝移动正逐渐成为行业的基本要求。

Projects that can integrate user-friendly interfaces, gas abstractions, and universal cross-chain bridges will hopefully reduce the barriers that have hindered the popularization of DeFi in the past due to "network tribalism."

能够集成用户友好界面、gas 抽象和通用跨链桥的项目有望减少过去因“网络部落主义”而阻碍 DeFi 普及的障碍。

Looking ahead, we may see the launch of more vertically customized L3s, such as those focusing on games, RWA (real world assets), and institutional-grade DeFi.

展望未来，我们可能会看到更多垂直定制的 L3 的推出，例如专注于游戏、RWA（现实世界资产）和机构级 DeFi 的 L3。

2) Liquidity, lending and real-world assets

2) 流动性、借贷和现实世界资产

The Holy Grail of Credit and Lending Ecosystem

信贷和借贷生态系统的圣杯

Development Trends:

发展趋势：

Coinbase has launched BTC-collateralized loans for U.S. users, providing a more mainstream audience with the ability to leverage the Bitcoin asset.

Coinbase 为美国用户推出了 BTC 抵押贷款，为更主流的受众提供了利用比特币资产的能力。

Tradable partnered with ZKsync to bring $1.7 billion worth of **Resource Wages (RWA)** onto the chain, demonstrating how institutional-grade products can further penetrate the DeFi space.

Tradable 与 ZKsync 合作，将价值 17 亿美元的**资源工资（RWA）**上链，展示了机构级产品如何进一步渗透 DeFi 领域。

Plume Network has attracted more than $4.5 billion in asset commitments for asset tokenization, with a TVL of $64 million before its launch, and has also launched a $25 million RWAfi ecosystem fund.

Plume Network 已吸引超过 45 亿美元的资产承诺用于资产代币化，推出前 TVL 为 6400 万美元，还推出了 2500 万美元的 RWAfi 生态系统基金。

Viewpoint:

观点：

The line between CeFi and DeFi is becoming increasingly blurred, which is an important sign of the industry’s maturity.

CeFi 和 DeFi 之间的界限越来越模糊，这是行业成熟的重要标志。

Coinbase's entry into the crypto-collateralized lending market shows that centralized trading platforms are willing to offer products traditionally associated with DeFi platforms. This may divert DeFi users, but it also verifies the importance of on-chain lending as a key financial tool.

Coinbase 进入加密货币抵押借贷市场表明中心化交易平台愿意提供传统上与 DeFi 平台相关的产品。这可能会分流 DeFi 用户，但也验证了链上借贷作为关键金融工具的重要性。

The integration of RWA is considered the “holy grail” of connecting traditional finance and on-chain liquidity.

RWA的整合被认为是连接传统金融和链上流动性的“圣杯”。

If this trend continues, DeFi could see stronger returns, deeper liquidity, and greater institutional trust, but this could also come with more regulatory scrutiny.

如果这种趋势持续下去，DeFi 可能会获得更高的回报、更深的流动性和更大的机构信任，但这也可能会带来更多的监管审查。

The development of these two areas is not only an advancement in technology and ecology, but also reflects the transformation path of the entire industry from "novel technology" to mainstream financial instruments.

这两个领域的发展不仅是技术和生态的进步，也体现了整个行业从“新技术”到主流金融工具的转型路径。

3) Liquid Staking & Synthetic Bitcoin

3) 流动质押和合成比特币

Innovation of pledge mechanism

创新质押机制

Development Trends:

发展趋势：

Babylon Labs launches $YBTC, a liquid staking token backed 1:1 by BTC, integrated with pSTAKE.

Babylon Labs 推出 $YBTC，这是一种由 BTC 1:1 支持的流动质押代币，与 pSTAKE 集成。

BrahmaFi launched the Onchain+ program, combining multi-chain strategies and AI agents (ConsoleKit) to automate DeFi operations.

BrahmaFi 推出 Onchain+ 计划，结合多链策略和 AI 代理（ConsoleKit）来自动化 DeFi 操作。

Viewpoint:

观点：

Liquidity staking has proven to be a key means of unlocking additional returns for stakers without sacrificing liquidity. By tokenizing staked assets (such as BTC, ETH, etc.), DeFi participants can use them as collateral or trade them freely.

事实证明，流动性质押是在不牺牲流动性的情况下为质押者释放额外回报的关键手段。通过将质押资产（如 BTC、ETH 等）代币化，DeFi 参与者可以将其用作抵押品或自由交易。

This “double-income” model (earning both staking rewards and potentially earning DeFi returns) is likely to accelerate further.

这种“双收入”模式（既获得质押奖励又可能获得 DeFi 回报）可能会进一步加速。

However, there are inherent risks: the more assets are “liquidly staked,” the deeper the complexity of the system. Protocols must be transparent and fully audited to prevent hidden leverage from eroding the stability of the system.

然而，存在固有的风险：“流动质押”的资产越多，系统的复杂性就越深。协议必须透明并经过充分审核，以防止隐藏的杠杆侵蚀系统的稳定性。

4) Ecosystem expansion and strategic cooperation

4）生态拓展与战略合作

Large-scale user introduction and enterprise cooperation

大规模用户引进及企业合作

Development Trends:

发展趋势：

Polygon Labs is working with Reliance Jio, India’s largest telecom company with more than 450 million users, to integrate blockchain solutions into Jio’s applications.

Polygon Labs 正在与拥有超过 4.5 亿用户的印度最大电信公司 Reliance Jio 合作，将区块链解决方案集成到 Jio 的应用程序中。

Ledger has integrated Uniswap into Ledger Live Desktop to provide a smoother experience for hardware wallet users.

Ledger已将Uniswap集成到Ledger Live Desktop中，为硬件钱包用户提供更流畅的体验。