Bitcoin (BTC) February Cycle Review and 2025 Forecast: Will History Repeat Itself?

Historically, February is usually a strong month for Bitcoin in the years following the halving. By Vernacular Blockchain.

Author: @arndxt_xo

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

Historically, February has been a strong month for Bitcoin in the years following the halving

1. Cycle review and forecast

1) Review of the 2017 and 2021 cycles

2017: Bitcoin experienced a pullback in January but resumed its uptrend in February.

2021: Similarly, BTC resumed its upward trend in February after falling in January.

2) Forecast for 2025

If history repeats itself, a similar rally could come this February.

3) Market rumors and potential driving factors

Recently, market speculation about executive orders related to Bitcoin has continued to heat up.

While this has yet to be confirmed, history suggests that such events often provide a significant boost to markets.

Next, we will conduct an in-depth analysis of the performance of each field 👇🧵

2. Industry Overview

1) Infrastructure & Interoperability

Reducing network tribalism and enabling cross-chain connectivity

Development Trends:

Superposition (Arbitrum L3) and Abstract (Hydra with Stargate integration) are launching more efficient asset transfer and data sharing solutions.

LayerZero expands its influence, allowing applications on Superposition to obtain liquidity from more than 100 connected chains.

Arcana Network has partnered with Scroll to allow users to pay gas fees with stablecoins (USDC/USDT) on any chain, greatly simplifying the user's onboarding process.

Viewpoint:

These developments show that the momentum for cross-chain interoperability continues to grow. From L1 to L2 to L3, seamless movement of assets and data is gradually becoming a basic requirement of the industry.

Projects that can integrate user-friendly interfaces, gas abstractions, and universal cross-chain bridges will hopefully reduce the barriers that have hindered the popularization of DeFi in the past due to "network tribalism."

Looking ahead, we may see the launch of more vertically customized L3s, such as those focusing on games, RWA (real world assets), and institutional-grade DeFi.

2) Liquidity, lending and real-world assets

The Holy Grail of Credit and Lending Ecosystem

Development Trends:

Coinbase has launched BTC-collateralized loans for U.S. users, providing a more mainstream audience with the ability to leverage the Bitcoin asset.

Tradable partnered with ZKsync to bring $1.7 billion worth of **Resource Wages (RWA)** onto the chain, demonstrating how institutional-grade products can further penetrate the DeFi space.

Plume Network has attracted more than $4.5 billion in asset commitments for asset tokenization, with a TVL of $64 million before its launch, and has also launched a $25 million RWAfi ecosystem fund.

Viewpoint:

The line between CeFi and DeFi is becoming increasingly blurred, which is an important sign of the industry’s maturity.

Coinbase's entry into the crypto-collateralized lending market shows that centralized trading platforms are willing to offer products traditionally associated with DeFi platforms. This may divert DeFi users, but it also verifies the importance of on-chain lending as a key financial tool.

The integration of RWA is considered the “holy grail” of connecting traditional finance and on-chain liquidity.

If this trend continues, DeFi could see stronger returns, deeper liquidity, and greater institutional trust, but this could also come with more regulatory scrutiny.

The development of these two areas is not only an advancement in technology and ecology, but also reflects the transformation path of the entire industry from "novel technology" to mainstream financial instruments.

3) Liquid Staking & Synthetic Bitcoin

Innovation of pledge mechanism

Development Trends:

Babylon Labs launches $YBTC, a liquid staking token backed 1:1 by BTC, integrated with pSTAKE.

BrahmaFi launched the Onchain+ program, combining multi-chain strategies and AI agents (ConsoleKit) to automate DeFi operations.

Viewpoint:

Liquidity staking has proven to be a key means of unlocking additional returns for stakers without sacrificing liquidity. By tokenizing staked assets (such as BTC, ETH, etc.), DeFi participants can use them as collateral or trade them freely.

This “double-income” model (earning both staking rewards and potentially earning DeFi returns) is likely to accelerate further.

However, there are inherent risks: the more assets are “liquidly staked,” the deeper the complexity of the system. Protocols must be transparent and fully audited to prevent hidden leverage from eroding the stability of the system.

4) Ecosystem expansion and strategic cooperation

Large-scale user introduction and enterprise cooperation

Development Trends:

Polygon Labs is working with Reliance Jio, India’s largest telecom company with more than 450 million users, to integrate blockchain solutions into Jio’s applications.

Ledger has integrated Uniswap into Ledger Live Desktop to provide a smoother experience for hardware wallet users.