比特幣（BTC）2月週期回顧與2025年預測：歷史會重演嗎？

從歷史上看，二月通常是比特幣減半後幾年表現強勁的月份。作者：白話區塊鏈。

Author: @arndxt_xo

作者：@arndxt_xo

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

編譯：白話區塊鏈

Historically, February has been a strong month for Bitcoin in the years following the halving

從歷史上看，二月份是比特幣減半後幾年表現強勁的月份

1. Cycle review and forecast

1、週期回顧與預測

1) Review of the 2017 and 2021 cycles

1）2017年和2021年周期回顧

2017: Bitcoin experienced a pullback in January but resumed its uptrend in February.

2017年：比特幣在1月經歷了回調，但在2月恢復了上漲趨勢。

2021: Similarly, BTC resumed its upward trend in February after falling in January.

2021年：同樣，BTC在1月下跌後，在2月恢復了上漲趨勢。

2) Forecast for 2025

2) 2025年預測

If history repeats itself, a similar rally could come this February.

如果歷史重演，今年二月可能會出現類似的反彈。

3) Market rumors and potential driving factors

3）市場傳聞及潛在驅動因素

Recently, market speculation about executive orders related to Bitcoin has continued to heat up.

近期，市場對比特幣相關行政命令的猜測持續升溫。

While this has yet to be confirmed, history suggests that such events often provide a significant boost to markets.

儘管這一點尚未得到證實，但歷史表明此類事件往往會對市場產生重大推動作用。

Next, we will conduct an in-depth analysis of the performance of each field 👇🧵

接下來我們將對各領域的表現進行深度分析👇🧵

2. Industry Overview

2、行業概況

1) Infrastructure & Interoperability

1) 基礎設施和互通性

Reducing network tribalism and enabling cross-chain connectivity

減少網路部落主義並實現跨鏈連接

Development Trends:

發展趨勢：

Superposition (Arbitrum L3) and Abstract (Hydra with Stargate integration) are launching more efficient asset transfer and data sharing solutions.

Superposition（Arbitrum L3）和 Abstract（Hydra 與 Stargate 整合）正在推出更有效率的資產轉移和資料共享解決方案。

LayerZero expands its influence, allowing applications on Superposition to obtain liquidity from more than 100 connected chains.

LayerZero 擴大了影響力，允許 Superposition 上的應用程式從 100 多個連接的鏈中獲取流動性。

Arcana Network has partnered with Scroll to allow users to pay gas fees with stablecoins (USDC/USDT) on any chain, greatly simplifying the user's onboarding process.

Arcana Network 與 Scroll 合作，允許用戶在任意鏈上使用穩定幣（USDC/USDT）支付 Gas 費，極大簡化了用戶的入門流程。

Viewpoint:

觀點：

These developments show that the momentum for cross-chain interoperability continues to grow. From L1 to L2 to L3, seamless movement of assets and data is gradually becoming a basic requirement of the industry.

這些發展顯示跨鏈互通性的勢頭持續增長。從L1到L2再到L3，資產和數據的無縫移動正逐漸成為業界的基本要求。

Projects that can integrate user-friendly interfaces, gas abstractions, and universal cross-chain bridges will hopefully reduce the barriers that have hindered the popularization of DeFi in the past due to "network tribalism."

能夠整合使用者友善介面、gas 抽象和通用跨鏈橋的專案有望減少過去因「網路部落主義」而阻礙 DeFi 普及的障礙。

Looking ahead, we may see the launch of more vertically customized L3s, such as those focusing on games, RWA (real world assets), and institutional-grade DeFi.

展望未來，我們可能會看到更多垂直客製化的 L3 的推出，例如專注於遊戲、RWA（現實世界資產）和機構級 DeFi 的 L3。

2) Liquidity, lending and real-world assets

2) 流動性、借貸與現實世界資產

The Holy Grail of Credit and Lending Ecosystem

信貸和借貸生態系統的聖杯

Development Trends:

發展趨勢：

Coinbase has launched BTC-collateralized loans for U.S. users, providing a more mainstream audience with the ability to leverage the Bitcoin asset.

Coinbase 為美國用戶推出了 BTC 抵押貸款，為更主流的受眾提供了利用比特幣資產的能力。

Tradable partnered with ZKsync to bring $1.7 billion worth of **Resource Wages (RWA)** onto the chain, demonstrating how institutional-grade products can further penetrate the DeFi space.

Tradable 與 ZKsync 合作，將價值 17 億美元的**資源工資（RWA）**上鏈，展示了機構級產品如何進一步滲透 DeFi 領域。

Plume Network has attracted more than $4.5 billion in asset commitments for asset tokenization, with a TVL of $64 million before its launch, and has also launched a $25 million RWAfi ecosystem fund.

Plume Network 已吸引超過 45 億美元的資產承諾用於資產代幣化，推出前 TVL 為 6,400 萬美元，也推出了 2,500 萬美元的 RWAfi 生態系統基金。

Viewpoint:

觀點：

The line between CeFi and DeFi is becoming increasingly blurred, which is an important sign of the industry’s maturity.

CeFi 和 DeFi 之間的界線越來越模糊，這是行業成熟的重要指標。

Coinbase's entry into the crypto-collateralized lending market shows that centralized trading platforms are willing to offer products traditionally associated with DeFi platforms. This may divert DeFi users, but it also verifies the importance of on-chain lending as a key financial tool.

Coinbase 進入加密貨幣抵押借貸市場表明中心化交易平台願意提供傳統上與 DeFi 平台相關的產品。這可能會分流 DeFi 用戶，但也驗證了鏈上借貸作為關鍵金融工具的重要性。

The integration of RWA is considered the “holy grail” of connecting traditional finance and on-chain liquidity.

RWA的整合被認為是連結傳統金融和鏈上流動性的「聖杯」。

If this trend continues, DeFi could see stronger returns, deeper liquidity, and greater institutional trust, but this could also come with more regulatory scrutiny.

如果這種趨勢持續下去，DeFi 可能會獲得更高的回報、更深的流動性和更大的機構信任，但這也可能帶來更多的監管審查。

The development of these two areas is not only an advancement in technology and ecology, but also reflects the transformation path of the entire industry from "novel technology" to mainstream financial instruments.

這兩個領域的發展不僅是技術和生態的進步，也體現了整個產業從「新技術」到主流金融工具的轉型路徑。

3) Liquid Staking & Synthetic Bitcoin

3) 流動質押和合成比特幣

Innovation of pledge mechanism

創新質押機制

Development Trends:

發展趨勢：

Babylon Labs launches $YBTC, a liquid staking token backed 1:1 by BTC, integrated with pSTAKE.

Babylon Labs 推出 $YBTC，這是由 BTC 1:1 支援的流動質押代幣，與 pSTAKE 整合。

BrahmaFi launched the Onchain+ program, combining multi-chain strategies and AI agents (ConsoleKit) to automate DeFi operations.

BrahmaFi 推出 Onchain+ 計劃，結合多鏈策略和 AI 代理程式（ConsoleKit）來自動化 DeFi 營運。

Viewpoint:

觀點：

Liquidity staking has proven to be a key means of unlocking additional returns for stakers without sacrificing liquidity. By tokenizing staked assets (such as BTC, ETH, etc.), DeFi participants can use them as collateral or trade them freely.

事實證明，流動性質押是在不犧牲流動性的情況下為質押者釋放額外回報的關鍵手段。透過將質押資產（如 BTC、ETH 等）代幣化，DeFi 參與者可以將其用作抵押品或自由交易。

This “double-income” model (earning both staking rewards and potentially earning DeFi returns) is likely to accelerate further.

這種「雙收入」模式（既獲得質押獎勵又可能獲得 DeFi 回報）可能會進一步加速。

However, there are inherent risks: the more assets are “liquidly staked,” the deeper the complexity of the system. Protocols must be transparent and fully audited to prevent hidden leverage from eroding the stability of the system.

然而，存在著固有的風險：「流動質押」的資產越多，系統的複雜性就越深。協議必須透明並經過充分審核，以防止隱藏的槓桿侵蝕系統的穩定性。

4) Ecosystem expansion and strategic cooperation

4）生態拓展與策略合作

Large-scale user introduction and enterprise cooperation

大規模用戶引進及企業合作

Development Trends:

發展趨勢：

Polygon Labs is working with Reliance Jio, India’s largest telecom company with more than 450 million users, to integrate blockchain solutions into Jio’s applications.

Polygon Labs 正在與擁有超過 4.5 億用戶的印度最大電信公司 Reliance Jio 合作，將區塊鏈解決方案整合到 Jio 的應用程式中。

Ledger has integrated Uniswap into Ledger Live Desktop to provide a smoother experience for hardware wallet users.

Ledger已將Uniswap整合到Ledger Live Desktop中，為硬體錢包用戶提供更流暢的體驗。