比特币（BTC）昨天轻微反弹后急剧下降

昨天由于轻度通货膨胀数据而进行了轻微的反弹后，美国股票在周四再次急剧下降，似乎将比特币（BTC）拖到了下来。

After a slight rebound yesterday due to mild inflation data, U.S. stocks fell sharply again on Thursday, seemingly dragging Bitcoin (BTC) down with them.

昨天由于轻度通货膨胀数据而进行了轻微的反弹后，美国股票在周四再次急剧下降，似乎将比特币（BTC）拖到了下来。

By the close of the day, the Nasdaq had dropped nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 1.39%. Bitcoin, after reaching nearly $85,000 the previous day, has retreated below $81,000, with a decline of nearly 3% in the past 24 hours.

到了一天结束时，纳斯达克岛下降了近2％，标准普尔500指数下降了1.39％。比特币在前一天达到近85,000美元之后，已退缩至81,000美元以下，过去24小时下降了近3％。

However, gold continues to demonstrate its safe-haven properties, with spot gold prices hitting a historic high, and as of the time of writing, it is just one step away from breaking the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time.

但是，黄金继续证明其安全的物业，现货黄金价格达到了历史性的高度，并且在撰写本文时，距离首次打破每盎司3,000美元的售价仅一步。

Since the Nasdaq index peaked three weeks ago, it has fallen nearly 15%. During the same period, gold has risen about 1%, while Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20%.

由于纳斯达克指数在三周前达到顶峰，因此下降了近15％。在同一时期，黄金增加了约1％，而比特币下降了近20％。

A Familiar Scenario

熟悉的场景

The current performance of gold may remind everyone of the situation in 2024. At that time, cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks were consolidating, while gold was reaching new highs. From March to October, Bitcoin fluctuated between $50,000 and $70,000, while gold rose nearly 40% to $2,800. Following Trump's election, Bitcoin once soared above $100,000, while gold's upward momentum stalled as funds flowed from safe-haven assets to risk assets.

目前的黄金表现可能使每个人在2024年的情况。当时，加密货币和美国股票正在巩固，而黄金正在达到新高。从3月到10月，比特币在50,000美元至70,000美元之间波动，黄金上涨了近40％，至2,800美元。特朗普当选之后，比特币曾经飙升至100,000美元以上，而戈德的势头却停滞不前，因为资金从避难所资产流向风险资产。

Now the tables have turned. Bold.report data shows that gold ETFs have recorded the largest inflow of funds in the past 30 days since early 2022, adding 3 million ounces of gold holdings.

现在桌子已经转了。 BOLD.RERPORT数据显示，自2022年初以来，黄金ETF记录了过去30天的资金流入，增加了300万盎司的黄金持有量。

In contrast, SoSoValue data indicates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $5 billion since February, marking the most severe outflow of funds in a year.

相比之下，Sosovalue数据表明，自2月以来，美国现货比特币ETF损失了50亿美元，标志着一年中最严重的资金流出。

The trading volume and futures activity in the crypto market have also seen significant declines. According to CoinDesk statistics, trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEX) has sharply decreased, with a combined drop of 20.6% in spot and derivatives trading volume to $7.20 trillion, the lowest level since last October.

加密货币市场的交易量和期货活动也显着下降。根据Coindesk统计数据，集中交易所（CEX）的交易活动急剧下降，现货的合计下降了20.6％，衍生品交易量达到7.20万亿美元，这是自去年10月以来的最低水平。

The trading volume of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has also decreased by 20.3% to $175 billion, leading to a 19.9% drop in total cryptocurrency trading volume on the CME to $229 billion. This marks the first decline in five months, consistent with the downward trend of the BTC CME annualized basis. Currently, the BTC CME annualized basis has fallen to 4.08%, the lowest level since March 2023.

芝加哥商务交易所（CME）比特币期货的交易量也减少了20.3％，至1750亿美元，导致CME的加密货币交易量减少了19.9％，至229亿美元。这标志着五个月内的首次下降，与BTC CME年度化的下降趋势一致。目前，BTC CME年化基础已降至4.08％，这是自2023年3月以来的最低水平。

Bitcoin = Gold in Puberty?

比特币=青春期的黄金？

This is not the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from the definition of a safe-haven asset. During the market crash triggered by COVID in 2020, Bitcoin plummeted over 50% in two days. Nevertheless, the notion of "digital gold" has been frequently mentioned in recent years.

这不是比特币第一次与避风港资产的定义解耦。在Covid于2020年触发的市场崩溃期间，比特币在两天内暴跌了50％。然而，近年来经常提到“数字黄金”的概念。

Especially when the Trump administration referenced Bitcoin's safe-haven potential in its executive orders and planned to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, the core argument was that holding Bitcoin could hedge against financial instability, similar to the logic of holding gold and oil reserves.

尤其是当特朗普政府在执行命令中提到比特币的安全潜力并计划建立国家比特币储备时，核心论点是，持有比特币可以对冲金融不稳定，类似于持有黄金和石油储备的逻辑。

However, some hold a more cautious view. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has compared Bitcoin to "hot sauce" in investing, suggesting it can add some "flavor" to traditional stock and bond portfolios. What attracts him to Bitcoin compared to other high-risk assets is "the narrative behind it about hedging against dollar depreciation."

但是，有些人更加谨慎。彭博情报分析师埃里克·巴尔库纳斯（Eric Balchunas）将比特币与投资中的“辣酱”进行了比较，这表明它可以为传统股票和债券投资组合增加一些“风味”。与其他高风险资产相比，吸引他到比特币的是“背后关于对冲美元折旧的叙述”。

Balchunas believes, "To me, Bitcoin is like gold in its puberty."

Balchunas相信：“对我来说，比特币就像黄金的青春期一样。”

Market observers have also pointed out that Bitcoin's performance resembles an overly glorified tech stock rather than digital gold. Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, stated on the X platform: "If Bitcoin equals 'digital gold,' then it should behave like gold. Otherwise, it reinforces the notion that Bitcoin is just a highly volatile asset. In my view, most cryptocurrencies are equivalent to tech stocks, and thus they are currently and will continue to be affected by tech stock sell-offs."

市场观察家还指出，比特币的性能类似于过于荣耀的科技股，而不是数字黄金。 ETF Store的总裁Nate Geraci在X平台上说：“如果比特币等于“数字黄金”，那么它应该像黄金一样行事。否则，它加强了比特币只是一个高度波动的资产的观念。在我看来，大多数加密货币都等于技术股票，因此他们目前会受到技术的销售。

Balanced Allocation

平衡分配

It is not surprising that gold is outperforming Bitcoin, as gold has a centuries-long history of preserving wealth and is globally recognized as a safe-haven asset. In contrast, while Bitcoin has performed poorly recently, its long-term potential remains worthy of attention. For investors looking to diversify risk, a simultaneous allocation may be an effective strategy.

黄金胜过比特币也就不足为奇了，因为黄金拥有维持财富的数百年历史，并且在全球范围内被认为是避风港资产。相比之下，尽管比特币最近的表现较差，但其长期潜力仍然值得关注。对于希望多样化风险的投资者，同时分配可能是一个有效的策略。

The appeal of gold lies in its low volatility and its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Data shows that last year, gold's long-term volatility was only 15%, while Bitcoin's volatility was as high as 40%. However, Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased

黄金的吸引力在于其低波动率和对冲经济不确定性的作用。数据显示，去年，Gold的长期波动仅为15％，而比特币的波动率高达40％。但是，比特币的波动大大降低了