比特幣（BTC）昨天輕微反彈後急劇下降

昨天由於輕度通貨膨脹數據而進行了輕微的反彈後，美國股票在周四再次急劇下降，似乎將比特幣（BTC）拖到了下來。

After a slight rebound yesterday due to mild inflation data, U.S. stocks fell sharply again on Thursday, seemingly dragging Bitcoin (BTC) down with them.

昨天由於輕度通貨膨脹數據而進行了輕微的反彈後，美國股票在周四再次急劇下降，似乎將比特幣（BTC）拖到了下來。

By the close of the day, the Nasdaq had dropped nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 1.39%. Bitcoin, after reaching nearly $85,000 the previous day, has retreated below $81,000, with a decline of nearly 3% in the past 24 hours.

到了一天結束時，納斯達克島下降了近2％，標準普爾500指數下降了1.39％。比特幣在前一天達到近85,000美元之後，已退縮至81,000美元以下，過去24小時下降了近3％。

However, gold continues to demonstrate its safe-haven properties, with spot gold prices hitting a historic high, and as of the time of writing, it is just one step away from breaking the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time.

但是，黃金繼續證明其安全的物業，現貨黃金價格達到了歷史性的高度，並且在撰寫本文時，距離首次打破每盎司3,000美元的售價僅一步。

Since the Nasdaq index peaked three weeks ago, it has fallen nearly 15%. During the same period, gold has risen about 1%, while Bitcoin has dropped nearly 20%.

由於納斯達克指數在三週前達到頂峰，因此下降了近15％。在同一時期，黃金增加了約1％，而比特幣下降了近20％。

A Familiar Scenario

熟悉的場景

The current performance of gold may remind everyone of the situation in 2024. At that time, cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks were consolidating, while gold was reaching new highs. From March to October, Bitcoin fluctuated between $50,000 and $70,000, while gold rose nearly 40% to $2,800. Following Trump's election, Bitcoin once soared above $100,000, while gold's upward momentum stalled as funds flowed from safe-haven assets to risk assets.

目前的黃金表現可能使每個人在2024年的情況。當時，加密貨幣和美國股票正在鞏固，而黃金正在達到新高。從3月到10月，比特幣在50,000美元至70,000美元之間波動，黃金上漲了近40％，至2,800美元。特朗普當選之後，比特幣曾經飆升至100,000美元以上，而戈德的勢頭卻停滯不前，因為資金從避難所資產流向風險資產。

Now the tables have turned. Bold.report data shows that gold ETFs have recorded the largest inflow of funds in the past 30 days since early 2022, adding 3 million ounces of gold holdings.

現在桌子已經轉了。 BOLD.RERPORT數據顯示，自2022年初以來，黃金ETF記錄了過去30天的資金流入，增加了300萬盎司的黃金持有量。

In contrast, SoSoValue data indicates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $5 billion since February, marking the most severe outflow of funds in a year.

相比之下，Sosovalue數據表明，自2月以來，美國現貨比特幣ETF損失了50億美元，標誌著一年中最嚴重的資金流出。

The trading volume and futures activity in the crypto market have also seen significant declines. According to CoinDesk statistics, trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEX) has sharply decreased, with a combined drop of 20.6% in spot and derivatives trading volume to $7.20 trillion, the lowest level since last October.

加密貨幣市場的交易量和期貨活動也顯著下降。根據Coindesk統計數據，集中交易所（CEX）的交易活動急劇下降，現貨的合計下降了20.6％，衍生品交易量達到7.20萬億美元，這是自去年10月以來的最低水平。

The trading volume of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has also decreased by 20.3% to $175 billion, leading to a 19.9% drop in total cryptocurrency trading volume on the CME to $229 billion. This marks the first decline in five months, consistent with the downward trend of the BTC CME annualized basis. Currently, the BTC CME annualized basis has fallen to 4.08%, the lowest level since March 2023.

芝加哥商務交易所（CME）比特幣期貨的交易量也減少了20.3％，至1750億美元，導致CME的加密貨幣交易量減少了19.9％，至229億美元。這標誌著五個月內的首次下降，與BTC CME年度化的下降趨勢一致。目前，BTC CME年化基礎已降至4.08％，這是自2023年3月以來的最低水平。

Bitcoin = Gold in Puberty?

比特幣=青春期的黃金？

This is not the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from the definition of a safe-haven asset. During the market crash triggered by COVID in 2020, Bitcoin plummeted over 50% in two days. Nevertheless, the notion of "digital gold" has been frequently mentioned in recent years.

這不是比特幣第一次與避風港資產的定義解耦。在Covid於2020年觸發的市場崩潰期間，比特幣在兩天內暴跌了50％。然而，近年來經常提到“數字黃金”的概念。

Especially when the Trump administration referenced Bitcoin's safe-haven potential in its executive orders and planned to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, the core argument was that holding Bitcoin could hedge against financial instability, similar to the logic of holding gold and oil reserves.

尤其是當特朗普政府在執行命令中提到比特幣的安全潛力併計劃建立國家比特幣儲備時，核心論點是，持有比特幣可以對沖金融不穩定，類似於持有黃金和石油儲備的邏輯。

However, some hold a more cautious view. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has compared Bitcoin to "hot sauce" in investing, suggesting it can add some "flavor" to traditional stock and bond portfolios. What attracts him to Bitcoin compared to other high-risk assets is "the narrative behind it about hedging against dollar depreciation."

但是，有些人更加謹慎。彭博情報分析師埃里克·巴爾庫納斯（Eric Balchunas）將比特幣與投資中的“辣醬”進行了比較，這表明它可以為傳統股票和債券投資組合增加一些“風味”。與其他高風險資產相比，吸引他到比特幣的是“背後關於對沖美元折舊的敘述”。

Balchunas believes, "To me, Bitcoin is like gold in its puberty."

Balchunas相信：“對我來說，比特幣就像黃金的青春期一樣。”

Market observers have also pointed out that Bitcoin's performance resembles an overly glorified tech stock rather than digital gold. Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, stated on the X platform: "If Bitcoin equals 'digital gold,' then it should behave like gold. Otherwise, it reinforces the notion that Bitcoin is just a highly volatile asset. In my view, most cryptocurrencies are equivalent to tech stocks, and thus they are currently and will continue to be affected by tech stock sell-offs."

市場觀察家還指出，比特幣的性能類似於過於榮耀的科技股，而不是數字黃金。 ETF Store的總裁Nate Geraci在X平台上說：“如果比特幣等於“數字黃金”，那麼它應該像黃金一樣行事。否則，它加強了比特幣只是一個高度波動的資產的觀念。在我看來，大多數加密貨幣都等於技術股票，因此他們目前會受到技術的銷售。

Balanced Allocation

平衡分配

It is not surprising that gold is outperforming Bitcoin, as gold has a centuries-long history of preserving wealth and is globally recognized as a safe-haven asset. In contrast, while Bitcoin has performed poorly recently, its long-term potential remains worthy of attention. For investors looking to diversify risk, a simultaneous allocation may be an effective strategy.

黃金勝過比特幣也就不足為奇了，因為黃金擁有維持財富的數百年曆史，並且在全球範圍內被認為是避風港資產。相比之下，儘管比特幣最近的表現較差，但其長期潛力仍然值得關注。對於希望多樣化風險的投資者，同時分配可能是一個有效的策略。

The appeal of gold lies in its low volatility and its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Data shows that last year, gold's long-term volatility was only 15%, while Bitcoin's volatility was as high as 40%. However, Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased

黃金的吸引力在於其低波動率和對沖經濟不確定性的作用。數據顯示，去年，Gold的長期波動僅為15％，而比特幣的波動率高達40％。但是，比特幣的波動大大降低了