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加密货币市场似乎正在为下一个上升趋势做好准备,包括比特币的 BTC/USD 交易流量倍数在内的几个关键指标
The cryptocurrency market appears to be gearing up for its next upward trend as several key indicators, including Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) BTC/USD exchange flow multiple, show signs of accumulation.
加密货币市场似乎正在为下一个上升趋势做准备,因为包括比特币(CRYPTO:BTC)的 BTC/USD 交易流量倍数在内的几个关键指标显示出积累的迹象。
Several key indicators are pointing to a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that another wave of上涨趋势 might be on the horizon.
几个关键指标都表明加密货币市场看涨前景,表明另一波上涨趋势可能即将到来。
Here's a closer look at the recent developments and their potential impact on the market.
以下是最近的发展及其对市场的潜在影响的详细分析。
Bitcoin Exchange Flow Multiple Indicates Accumulation
比特币交易流量倍增表明积累
The Exchange Flow Multiple (30-day/365-day) — an indicator that measures the ratio between short-term and long-term inflows and outflows of Bitcoin on exchanges — has reached its lowest point this year, suggesting decreased volatility in Bitcoin exchange flows, according to CryptoQuant.
交易流量倍数(30天/365天)——衡量交易所比特币短期和长期流入与流出比率的指标——已达到今年的最低点,表明比特币交易波动性下降根据 CryptoQuant 的数据,流量。
A decline in this indicator suggests a significant drop in short-term inflows and outflows, which is often an indication of investors accumulating the asset in anticipation of future price increases.
该指标的下降表明短期流入和流出大幅下降,这通常表明投资者因预期未来价格上涨而积累资产。
Historically, such patterns align with the early stages of a bull market. In recent data, this low Exchange Flow Multiple mirrors the values observed before the market rally in early 2023, hinting that the market might be preparing for another surge.
从历史上看,这种模式与牛市的早期阶段是一致的。在最近的数据中,这种较低的交易流量倍数反映了 2023 年初市场反弹之前观察到的值,暗示市场可能正在为另一次飙升做好准备。
Two factors are contributing to this downward trend in the Exchange Flow Multiple.
有两个因素导致了外汇流量倍数的下降趋势。
First, long-term investors, or “HODLers,” continue to hold their assets, reducing trading volumes on exchanges. This behavior is typical of experienced participants in the early stages of a bull market who prefer not to exit their positions, expecting further price increases.
首先,长期投资者或“HODLers”继续持有其资产,从而减少了交易所的交易量。这种行为是牛市早期阶段经验丰富的参与者的典型行为,他们不愿意平仓,期望价格进一步上涨。
Secondly, following market corrections, reduced activity indicates that active investors are waiting for price stabilization before resuming trading.
其次,在市场调整之后,交易活动减少表明活跃的投资者正在等待价格稳定后再恢复交易。
Adding to this bullish outlook, fund inflows into Bitcoin-related products are on the rise. During the week of Sep. 23 to Sep. 27, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.11 billion, according to data from SoSo Value.
除了这种看涨前景之外,比特币相关产品的资金流入也在增加。 SoSo Value的数据显示,9月23日至27日当周,比特币现货ETF录得净流入11.1亿美元。
The largest contributions came from BlackRock's (NYSE:BLK) ETF IBIT, with inflows of $499 million, and Ark & 21Shares’ Bitcoin ETF ARKB, which saw $269 million in inflows.
最大的贡献来自 BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) ETF IBIT,流入 4.99 亿美元,以及 Ark & 21Shares 的比特币 ETF ARKB,流入 2.69 亿美元。
Meanwhile, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETH/USD spot ETFs also experienced positive movement, with a net inflow of $84.51 million, suggesting growing investor confidence in the broader cryptocurrency market, data shows.
与此同时,数据显示,以太坊 (CRYPTO: ETH) ETH/美元现货 ETF 也出现积极走势,净流入 8451 万美元,表明投资者对更广泛的加密货币市场的信心不断增强。
Market Analysis: Preparing for the Next Bullish Wave
市场分析:为下一波牛市做准备
Market analysts, like Ruslan Lienkha, Chief of Markets at YouHodler, are expressing a cautiously optimistic sentiment.
YouHodler 市场主管 Ruslan Lienkha 等市场分析师表达了谨慎乐观的情绪。
“From a technical analysis perspective, the weekly chart remains optimistic, showing a bullish flag pattern,” Lienkha told Benzinga, noting the possibility of continued upward trends fueled by fundamental factors like the recent interest rate cuts.
Lienkha 对 Benzinga 表示:“从技术分析的角度来看,周线图仍然乐观,显示出看涨旗形格局。”他指出,近期降息等基本面因素可能推动持续上涨趋势。
However, he also cautioned about looming macroeconomic risks, particularly concerns around a potential U.S. recession.
不过,他也对迫在眉睫的宏观经济风险发出警告,特别是对美国潜在衰退的担忧。
“The market has at least three months to benefit from reduced borrowing costs before any potential negative news about a recession surfaces,” Lienkha added.
利恩卡补充道:“在任何有关经济衰退的潜在负面消息浮出水面之前,市场至少有三个月的时间从借贷成本下降中受益。”
The upcoming U.S. presidential election could further influence market dynamics.
即将到来的美国总统大选可能会进一步影响市场动态。
According to Lienkha, a win for former President Donald Trump might ignite short-term optimism in the crypto market due to his generally perceived crypto-friendly stance, potentially driving token prices higher.
Lienkha 表示,由于普遍认为前总统唐纳德·特朗普对加密货币友好的立场,他的胜利可能会点燃加密货币市场的短期乐观情绪,从而可能推高代币价格。
Conversely, a continuation of the Democratic administration could result in a more conservative regulatory approach, with minimal changes anticipated in the industry.
相反,民主党政府的继续执政可能会导致更加保守的监管方式,预计该行业的变化将很小。
Despite potential short-term risks, long-term growth prospects remain strong. Bitcoin's current accumulation phase, coupled with the growing inflow of funds into digital assets, paints a picture of a market gearing up for sustained growth.
尽管存在潜在的短期风险,但长期增长前景仍然强劲。比特币当前的积累阶段,加上越来越多的资金流入数字资产,描绘了一幅正在为持续增长做好准备的市场图景。
“The current prices for BTC, ETH, XRP and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) are presenting a reasonable opportunity to start accumulating long positions,” Lienkha commented, suggesting that any market downturns should be seen as buying opportunities, underscoring the resilience of the crypto market.
Lienkha 评论道:“BTC、ETH、XRP 和 Solana(加密货币:SOL)的当前价格为开始积累多头头寸提供了合理的机会。”他表示,任何市场低迷都应被视为买入机会,强调了加密货币的弹性市场。
What's Next: This evolving market landscape and its impact on future trends will be key discussion points at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
下一步是什么:不断变化的市场格局及其对未来趋势的影响将成为 Benzinga 11 月 19 日举行的数字资产未来活动的关键讨论点。
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