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加密貨幣市場似乎正在為下一個上升趨勢做好準備,包括比特幣的 BTC/USD 交易流量倍數在內的幾個關鍵指標
The cryptocurrency market appears to be gearing up for its next upward trend as several key indicators, including Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) BTC/USD exchange flow multiple, show signs of accumulation.
加密貨幣市場似乎正在為下一個上升趨勢做準備,因為包括比特幣(CRYPTO:BTC)的 BTC/USD 交易流量倍數在內的幾個關鍵指標顯示出累積的跡象。
Several key indicators are pointing to a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that another wave of上涨趋势 might be on the horizon.
幾個關鍵指標都顯示加密貨幣市場看漲前景,顯示另一波上漲趨勢可能即將到來。
Here's a closer look at the recent developments and their potential impact on the market.
以下是最近的發展及其對市場的潛在影響的詳細分析。
Bitcoin Exchange Flow Multiple Indicates Accumulation
比特幣交易流量倍增顯示積累
The Exchange Flow Multiple (30-day/365-day) — an indicator that measures the ratio between short-term and long-term inflows and outflows of Bitcoin on exchanges — has reached its lowest point this year, suggesting decreased volatility in Bitcoin exchange flows, according to CryptoQuant.
交易流量倍數(30天/365天)——衡量交易所比特幣短期和長期流入與流出比率的指標——已達到今年的最低點,表明比特幣交易波動性下降根據 CryptoQuant 的數據,流量。
A decline in this indicator suggests a significant drop in short-term inflows and outflows, which is often an indication of investors accumulating the asset in anticipation of future price increases.
此指標的下降表明短期流入和流出大幅下降,這通常表明投資者因預期未來價格上漲而累積資產。
Historically, such patterns align with the early stages of a bull market. In recent data, this low Exchange Flow Multiple mirrors the values observed before the market rally in early 2023, hinting that the market might be preparing for another surge.
從歷史上看,這種模式與牛市的早期階段是一致的。在最近的數據中,這種較低的交易流量倍數反映了 2023 年初市場反彈之前觀察到的值,暗示市場可能正在為另一次飆升做好準備。
Two factors are contributing to this downward trend in the Exchange Flow Multiple.
有兩個因素導致了外匯流量倍數的下降趨勢。
First, long-term investors, or “HODLers,” continue to hold their assets, reducing trading volumes on exchanges. This behavior is typical of experienced participants in the early stages of a bull market who prefer not to exit their positions, expecting further price increases.
首先,長期投資者或「HODLers」繼續持有其資產,從而減少了交易所的交易量。這種行為是牛市早期階段經驗豐富的參與者的典型行為,他們不願意平倉,期望價格進一步上漲。
Secondly, following market corrections, reduced activity indicates that active investors are waiting for price stabilization before resuming trading.
其次,在市場調整之後,交易活動減少表明活躍的投資者正在等待價格穩定後再恢復交易。
Adding to this bullish outlook, fund inflows into Bitcoin-related products are on the rise. During the week of Sep. 23 to Sep. 27, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $1.11 billion, according to data from SoSo Value.
除了這種看漲前景之外,比特幣相關產品的資金流入也增加。 SoSo Value 的數據顯示,9 月 23 日至 27 日當週,比特幣現貨 ETF 淨流入 11.1 億美元。
The largest contributions came from BlackRock's (NYSE:BLK) ETF IBIT, with inflows of $499 million, and Ark & 21Shares’ Bitcoin ETF ARKB, which saw $269 million in inflows.
最大的貢獻來自 BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) ETF IBIT,流入 4.99 億美元,以及 Ark & 21Shares 的比特幣 ETF ARKB,流入 2.69 億美元。
Meanwhile, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETH/USD spot ETFs also experienced positive movement, with a net inflow of $84.51 million, suggesting growing investor confidence in the broader cryptocurrency market, data shows.
同時,數據顯示,以太幣 (CRYPTO: ETH) ETH/美元現貨 ETF 也出現積極走勢,淨流入 8,451 萬美元,顯示投資者對更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的信心不斷增強。
Market Analysis: Preparing for the Next Bullish Wave
市場分析:為下一波多頭市場做準備
Market analysts, like Ruslan Lienkha, Chief of Markets at YouHodler, are expressing a cautiously optimistic sentiment.
YouHodler 市場主管 Ruslan Lienkha 等市場分析師表達了謹慎樂觀的情緒。
“From a technical analysis perspective, the weekly chart remains optimistic, showing a bullish flag pattern,” Lienkha told Benzinga, noting the possibility of continued upward trends fueled by fundamental factors like the recent interest rate cuts.
Lienkha 對 Benzinga 表示:「從技術分析的角度來看,週線圖仍然樂觀,顯示出看漲旗形格局。」他指出,近期降息等基本面因素可能推動持續上漲趨勢。
However, he also cautioned about looming macroeconomic risks, particularly concerns around a potential U.S. recession.
不過,他也對迫在眉睫的宏觀經濟風險發出警告,特別是對美國潛在衰退的擔憂。
“The market has at least three months to benefit from reduced borrowing costs before any potential negative news about a recession surfaces,” Lienkha added.
利恩卡補充道:“在任何有關經濟衰退的潛在負面消息浮出水面之前,市場至少有三個月的時間從借貸成本下降中受益。”
The upcoming U.S. presidential election could further influence market dynamics.
即將到來的美國總統大選可能會進一步影響市場動態。
According to Lienkha, a win for former President Donald Trump might ignite short-term optimism in the crypto market due to his generally perceived crypto-friendly stance, potentially driving token prices higher.
Lienkha 表示,由於普遍認為前總統川普對加密貨幣友好的立場,他的勝利可能會點燃加密貨幣市場的短期樂觀情緒,從而可能推高代幣價格。
Conversely, a continuation of the Democratic administration could result in a more conservative regulatory approach, with minimal changes anticipated in the industry.
相反,民主黨政府的繼續執政可能會導致更保守的監管方式,預計該行業的變化將很小。
Despite potential short-term risks, long-term growth prospects remain strong. Bitcoin's current accumulation phase, coupled with the growing inflow of funds into digital assets, paints a picture of a market gearing up for sustained growth.
儘管存在潛在的短期風險,但長期成長前景仍然強勁。比特幣當前的累積階段,加上越來越多的資金流入數位資產,描繪了一幅正在為持續成長做好準備的市場圖景。
“The current prices for BTC, ETH, XRP and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) are presenting a reasonable opportunity to start accumulating long positions,” Lienkha commented, suggesting that any market downturns should be seen as buying opportunities, underscoring the resilience of the crypto market.
Lienkha 評論道:「BTC、ETH、XRP 和Solana(加密貨幣:SOL)的當前價格為開始累積多頭部位提供了合理的機會。」他表示,任何市場低迷都應被視為買入機會,強調了加密貨幣的彈性市場。
What's Next: This evolving market landscape and its impact on future trends will be key discussion points at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
下一步是什麼:不斷變化的市場格局及其對未來趨勢的影響將成為 Benzinga 11 月 19 日舉行的數位資產未來活動的關鍵討論點。
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