尽管期权合约到期，但比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）市场平静稳定，超出预期

Bybit 和 Block Scholes 的一项新合作研究对比特币和以太币衍生品进行了深入研究，提供了令人惊讶的视角

Despite the usual volatility that surrounds the year-end expiry of options contracts, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have managed to defy expectations with calm and stable markets. A new collaborative study from Bybit and Block Scholes offers an in-depth examination of Bitcoin and Ether derivatives, providing a surprising perspective on market behavior during this typically turbulent period.

尽管期权合约年底到期时通常会出现波动，但比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的市场平静稳定，却超出了预期。 Bybit 和 Block Scholes 的一项新合作研究对比特币和以太币衍生品进行了深入研究，为这个典型动荡时期的市场行为提供了令人惊讶的视角。

An Unexpected Calm in the Market

市场意外平静

Typically, as the end of the year approaches, traders and investors brace for increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Options expiry often leads to price swings as investors square off their positions, adding extra pressure to asset prices. However, the recent report from Bybit and Block Scholes reveals that Bitcoin and Ethereum have displayed a level of stability that has caught many market observers off guard.

通常，随着年底的临近，交易者和投资者会为加密货币市场的波动加剧做好准备。当投资者平仓时，期权到期通常会导致价格波动，从而给资产价格带来额外压力。然而，Bybit 和 Block Scholes 最近的报告显示，比特币和以太坊表现出的稳定性让许多市场观察人士措手不及。

This calm in the market is particularly noteworthy considering the immense size of the derivatives market for both BTC and ETH. These two leading cryptocurrencies have become increasingly intertwined with institutional trading strategies, and their derivative markets have grown in complexity over time. Yet, rather than experiencing the sharp price movements usually associated with options expirations, both assets have held steady, leading to questions about the broader market dynamics at play.

考虑到 BTC 和 ETH 衍生品市场的巨大规模，市场的平静尤其值得注意。这两种领先的加密货币与机构交易策略的联系日益紧密，其衍生品市场随着时间的推移也变得越来越复杂。然而，这两种资产并没有经历通常与期权到期相关的剧烈价格波动，而是保持稳定，引发了人们对更广泛的市场动态的质疑。

Insights from the Bybit and Block Scholes Study

Bybit 和 Block Scholes 研究的见解

The study highlights several factors contributing to the market’s calmness. According to the research, the cryptocurrency derivatives market has matured significantly in recent years, with an increase in sophisticated trading strategies and institutional participation. These factors may have led to a more resilient and less volatile market environment, even during a typically turbulent time like the options expiry.

该研究强调了导致市场平静的几个因素。研究表明，近年来，加密货币衍生品市场已显着成熟，交易策略和机构参与度均有所增加。这些因素可能导致市场环境更具弹性且波动性较小，即使是在期权到期等典型动荡时期也是如此。

Moreover, the report suggests that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have become more correlated with traditional financial markets, especially in relation to risk-on and risk-off sentiment. This correlation could be contributing to a more stable price action as institutional investors are likely taking a more cautious approach to avoid sudden shocks to their portfolios.

此外，该报告表明，比特币和以太坊与传统金融市场的相关性越来越强，尤其是在风险偏好和避险情绪方面。这种相关性可能有助于价格走势更加稳定，因为机构投资者可能会采取更加谨慎的态度，以避免其投资组合突然受到冲击。

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Derivatives Market Growth

比特币和以太坊衍生品市场增长

As derivatives markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum have grown, so has the depth of market liquidity, which can help absorb the impacts of large option expirations without triggering massive price swings. The Bybit and Block Scholes report also highlights the increasing role of futures and options markets in stabilizing prices, especially when compared to earlier years when unhedged positions might have led to sharp market reactions.

随着比特币和以太坊衍生品市场的发展，市场流动性的深度也随之增加，这有助于吸收大量期权到期的影响，而不会引发大规模的价格波动。 Bybit 和 Block Scholes 的报告还强调了期货和期权市场在稳定价格方面的作用日益增强，特别是与前几年相比，当时未对冲的头寸可能会导致市场的剧烈反应。

The maturity of these markets has allowed for more precise risk management and more predictable outcomes, even in the face of options expiry. Investors now have access to a broader range of hedging tools, which could explain the surprising calm amid the year-end expiration.

这些市场的成熟使得即使在期权到期的情况下也可以进行更精确的风险管理和更可预测的结果。投资者现在可以使用更广泛的对冲工具，这可以解释年底到期期间令人惊讶的平静。

The Role of Institutional Investors in Reducing Volatility

机构投资者在降低波动性方面的作用

The report also touches on the growing influence of institutional investors in Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives markets. With more large players entering the market, there is less room for erratic price movements. Institutional investors tend to approach the market with long-term strategies, less prone to reacting to short-term noise like retail traders might.

该报告还涉及机构投资者在比特币和以太坊衍生品市场中日益增长的影响力。随着越来越多的大型企业进入市场，价格波动的空间越来越小。机构投资者倾向于以长期策略进入市场，不像散户交易者那样对短期噪音做出反应。

Additionally, the institutional involvement in derivatives markets has increased market efficiency, creating smoother price discovery processes. This evolution in market structure could be one of the key reasons behind the muted volatility around options expiry this year.

此外，机构对衍生品市场的参与提高了市场效率，创造了更顺畅的价格发现流程。市场结构的这种演变可能是今年期权到期波动温和的主要原因之一。

Looking Ahead to 2025

展望 2025 年

With Bitcoin and Ethereum demonstrating relative stability, especially during a traditionally high-stakes period like the options expiry, many analysts are optimistic about the growth and maturity of the market in 2025. The increased institutional adoption and improved derivatives market infrastructure are likely to continue to shape the landscape of the cryptocurrency market in the years ahead, helping to mitigate volatility and create a more stable trading environment.

随着比特币和以太坊表现出相对稳定性，特别是在期权到期等传统高风险时期，许多分析师对 2025 年市场的增长和成熟感到乐观。机构采用率的增加和衍生品市场基础设施的改善可能会继续塑造未来几年加密货币市场的格局，有助于减轻波动性并创造更稳定的交易环境。

As the crypto market matures and more sophisticated financial instruments become available, Bitcoin and Ethereum may continue to surprise investors with their ability to weather market events with relative calm—defying expectations and proving that they are no longer just speculative assets, but part of the broader financial ecosystem.

随着加密货币市场的成熟和更复杂的金融工具的出现，比特币和以太坊可能会继续让投资者感到惊讶，因为它们能够以相对平静的方式应对市场事件，这超出了预期，并证明它们不再只是投机资产，而是更广泛的资产的一部分金融生态系统。