儘管選擇權合約到期，但比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）市場平靜穩定，超出預期

Bybit 和 Block Scholes 的一項新合作研究對比特幣和以太幣衍生品進行了深入研究，提供了令人驚訝的視角

Despite the usual volatility that surrounds the year-end expiry of options contracts, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have managed to defy expectations with calm and stable markets. A new collaborative study from Bybit and Block Scholes offers an in-depth examination of Bitcoin and Ether derivatives, providing a surprising perspective on market behavior during this typically turbulent period.

儘管期權合約年底到期時通常會出現波動，但比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的市場平靜穩定，卻超出了預期。 Bybit 和 Block Scholes 的一項新合作研究對比特幣和以太幣衍生品進行了深入研究，為這個典型動盪時期的市場行為提供了令人驚訝的視角。

An Unexpected Calm in the Market

市場意外平靜

Typically, as the end of the year approaches, traders and investors brace for increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Options expiry often leads to price swings as investors square off their positions, adding extra pressure to asset prices. However, the recent report from Bybit and Block Scholes reveals that Bitcoin and Ethereum have displayed a level of stability that has caught many market observers off guard.

通常，隨著年底的臨近，交易者和投資者會為加密貨幣市場的波動加劇做好準備。當投資者平倉時，選擇權到期通常會導致價格波動，從而對資產價格造成額外壓力。然而，Bybit 和 Block Scholes 最近的報告顯示，比特幣和以太坊表現出的穩定性讓許多市場觀察家措手不及。

This calm in the market is particularly noteworthy considering the immense size of the derivatives market for both BTC and ETH. These two leading cryptocurrencies have become increasingly intertwined with institutional trading strategies, and their derivative markets have grown in complexity over time. Yet, rather than experiencing the sharp price movements usually associated with options expirations, both assets have held steady, leading to questions about the broader market dynamics at play.

考慮到 BTC 和 ETH 衍生性商品市場的巨大規模，市場的平靜尤其值得注意。這兩種領先的加密貨幣與機構交易策略的連結日益緊密，其衍生性商品市場隨著時間的推移也變得越來越複雜。然而，這兩種資產並沒有經歷通常與選擇權到期相關的劇烈價格波動，而是保持穩定，引發了人們對更廣泛的市場動態的質疑。

Insights from the Bybit and Block Scholes Study

Bybit 和 Block Scholes 研究的見解

The study highlights several factors contributing to the market’s calmness. According to the research, the cryptocurrency derivatives market has matured significantly in recent years, with an increase in sophisticated trading strategies and institutional participation. These factors may have led to a more resilient and less volatile market environment, even during a typically turbulent time like the options expiry.

該研究強調了導致市場平靜的幾個因素。研究表明，近年來，加密貨幣衍生性商品市場已顯著成熟，交易策略和機構參與度均增加。這些因素可能導致市場環境更具彈性且波動性較小，即使在選擇權到期等典型動盪時期也是如此。

Moreover, the report suggests that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have become more correlated with traditional financial markets, especially in relation to risk-on and risk-off sentiment. This correlation could be contributing to a more stable price action as institutional investors are likely taking a more cautious approach to avoid sudden shocks to their portfolios.

此外，該報告表明，比特幣和以太坊與傳統金融市場的相關性越來越強，尤其是在風險偏好和避險情緒方面。這種相關性可能有助於價格趨勢更加穩定，因為機構投資者可能會採取更謹慎的態度，以避免其投資組合突然受到衝擊。

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Derivatives Market Growth

比特幣和以太坊衍生性商品市場成長

As derivatives markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum have grown, so has the depth of market liquidity, which can help absorb the impacts of large option expirations without triggering massive price swings. The Bybit and Block Scholes report also highlights the increasing role of futures and options markets in stabilizing prices, especially when compared to earlier years when unhedged positions might have led to sharp market reactions.

隨著比特幣和以太坊衍生性商品市場的發展，市場流動性的深度也隨之增加，這有助於吸收大量選擇權到期的影響，而不會引發大規模的價格波動。 Bybit 和 Block Scholes 的報告也強調了期貨和選擇權市場在穩定價格方面的作用日益增強，特別是與前幾年相比，當時未對沖的部位可能會導致市場的劇烈反應。

The maturity of these markets has allowed for more precise risk management and more predictable outcomes, even in the face of options expiry. Investors now have access to a broader range of hedging tools, which could explain the surprising calm amid the year-end expiration.

這些市場的成熟使得即使在期權到期的情況下也可以進行更精確的風險管理和更可預測的結果。投資者現在可以使用更廣泛的對沖工具，這可以解釋年底到期期間令人驚訝的平靜。

The Role of Institutional Investors in Reducing Volatility

機構投資者在降低波動性方面的作用

The report also touches on the growing influence of institutional investors in Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives markets. With more large players entering the market, there is less room for erratic price movements. Institutional investors tend to approach the market with long-term strategies, less prone to reacting to short-term noise like retail traders might.

該報告還涉及機構投資者在比特幣和以太坊衍生品市場中日益增長的影響力。隨著越來越多的大型企業進入市場，價格波動的空間越來越小。機構投資者傾向於以長期策略進入市場，不像散戶交易者那樣對短期噪音做出反應。

Additionally, the institutional involvement in derivatives markets has increased market efficiency, creating smoother price discovery processes. This evolution in market structure could be one of the key reasons behind the muted volatility around options expiry this year.

此外，機構對衍生性商品市場的參與提高了市場效率，創造了更順暢的價格發現流程。市場結構的這種演變可能是今年選擇權到期波動溫和的主要原因之一。

Looking Ahead to 2025

展望 2025 年

With Bitcoin and Ethereum demonstrating relative stability, especially during a traditionally high-stakes period like the options expiry, many analysts are optimistic about the growth and maturity of the market in 2025. The increased institutional adoption and improved derivatives market infrastructure are likely to continue to shape the landscape of the cryptocurrency market in the years ahead, helping to mitigate volatility and create a more stable trading environment.

隨著比特幣和以太坊表現出相對穩定性，特別是在期權到期等傳統高風險時期，許多分析師對2025 年市場的成長和成熟感到樂觀。的改善可能會繼續塑造未來幾年加密貨幣市場的格局，有助於減輕波動性並創造更穩定的交易環境。

As the crypto market matures and more sophisticated financial instruments become available, Bitcoin and Ethereum may continue to surprise investors with their ability to weather market events with relative calm—defying expectations and proving that they are no longer just speculative assets, but part of the broader financial ecosystem.

隨著加密貨幣市場的成熟和更複雜的金融工具的出現，比特幣和以太坊可能會繼續讓投資者感到驚訝，因為它們能夠以相對平靜的方式應對市場事件，這超出了預期，並證明它們不再只是投機資產，而是更廣泛的資產的一部分金融生態系統。