比特币 (BTC) 需求超过 2023 年 3 月水平，研究人员着眼于新纪录

投资者需求已超过 2023 年 3 月的水平 4%，正在激发人们对新里程碑的乐观情绪。在上次飙升期间，比特币的市值接近 3 万亿美元。

Surging investor demand, already outpacing levels seen during Bitcoin’s last major rally to $70,000 in March 2023 by 4%, is fueling optimism for new milestones.

投资者需求的激增，已经比 2023 年 3 月比特币上次大幅上涨至 70,000 美元时的水平高出 4%，这正在激发人们对新里程碑的乐观情绪。

During the last surge, Bitcoin’s market capitalization came close to $3 trillion, according to CoinGecko.

根据 CoinGecko 的数据，在上次飙升期间，比特币的市值接近 3 万亿美元。

As the year-end approaches, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve and its upcoming policy decisions, which could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

随着年底的临近，所有人的目光都集中在美联储及其即将推出的政策决定上，这可能会影响比特币的走势。

Bitcoin Demand Surges to March 2023 Levels

比特币需求飙升至 2023 年 3 月水平

Bitcoin demand is currently outpacing levels last seen during its $70,000 rally in March 2023, as noted by Axel Adler Jr., a researcher and author at CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 的研究员兼作者 Axel Adler Jr. 指出，目前比特币的需求已经超过了 2023 年 3 月上涨 70,000 美元期间的水平。

During prior bull cycles, demand peaks were at 205% and 133%, respectively, suggesting that the current surge could be a prelude to further highs.

在之前的牛市周期中，需求峰值分别为 205% 和 133%，这表明当前的飙升可能是进一步高点的前奏。

This robust appetite for Bitcoin comes as the cryptocurrency matures, with its volatility hitting record lows, according to CryptoBanter show host Kyledoops on X, highlighting Glassnode’s data.

CryptoBanter 节目主持人 Kyledoops 在 X 上强调了 Glassnode 的数据，表示随着加密货币的成熟，比特币的强劲需求随之而来，其波动性创下历史新低。

He also noted that institutional adoption and market stability are transforming Bitcoin into a dependable financial asset.

他还指出，机构采用和市场稳定正在将比特币转变为可靠的金融资产。

Adding to the bullish narrative is President-elect Donald Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies. Trump has pledged to make the US a global leader in digital assets, proposing favorable regulations and even a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

当选总统唐纳德·特朗普对加密货币的直言不讳的支持加剧了看涨情绪。特朗普承诺让美国成为数字资产领域的全球领导者，提出有利的法规，甚至建立比特币战略储备。

This policy stance has injected fresh energy into the market, attracting investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

这一政策立场为市场注入了新的活力，吸引了寻求投资比特币长期潜力的投资者。

Institutions Pivot, Derivative Bets傾斜

机构枢轴，衍生品押注斜率

The institutional pivot toward Bitcoin is unmistakable. MicroStrategy Inc., a Bitcoin-focused firm, is set to join the Nasdaq 100 Index.

机构转向比特币的趋势是明确无误的。 MicroStrategy Inc. 是一家专注于比特币的公司，即将加入纳斯达克 100 指数。

The inclusion underscores Bitcoin’s growing mainstream acceptance and highlights how corporate entities continue to embrace it as a strategic asset.

此次纳入凸显了比特币日益受到主流接受，并突显了企业实体如何继续将其视为战略资产。

MicroStrategy, led by Bitcoin permabull Michael Saylor, currently holds 439,002 BTC, valued at $46.9 billion at the current market price. This makes Microstrategy the largest corporate HODler of BTC.

由比特币永久看涨者 Michael Saylor 领导的 MicroStrategy 目前持有 439,002 BTC，按当前市场价格计算价值 469 亿美元。这使得 Microstrategy 成为 BTC 最大的企业持有者。

On the derivatives front, the Deribit options exchange is seeing a concentration of bullish bets at the $120,000 strike price.

在衍生品方面，Deribit 期权交易所的看涨押注集中在 120,000 美元的执行价。

This reflects traders’ belief in Bitcoin’s ability to extend its gains, particularly as macroeconomic conditions evolve.

这反映了交易者对比特币扩大收益能力的信念，特别是随着宏观经济状况的变化。

According to analysts at K33 Research, Bitcoin’s momentum could strengthen during the quiet weeks following the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2024.

K33 Research 分析师表示，在美联储 2024 年最后一次会议后的安静几周内，比特币的势头可能会增强。

The Impact of Economic and Political Drivers

经济和政治驱动因素的影响

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a quarter-point rate cut this week, which could bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against traditional financial risks.

人们普遍预计美联储本周将宣布降息四分之一个百分点，这可能会增强比特币作为对冲传统金融风险的吸引力。

However, market uncertainty remains, given the robust US economic growth and inflation concerns tied to Trump’s broader policy agenda.

然而，鉴于美国经济强劲增长以及与特朗普更广泛政策议程相关的通胀担忧，市场不确定性依然存在。

Bitcoin has also benefited from renewed retail interest. Its price has risen over 55% since Trump’s election victory on November 5, with US-based exchange-traded funds seeing significant inflows.

比特币也受益于零售兴趣的恢复。自 11 月 5 日特朗普当选以来，其价格已上涨超过 55%，美国交易所交易基金 (ETF) 出现大量资金流入。

This starkly contrasts Bitcoin’s skepticism a year ago when it traded at $41,000.

这与一年前比特币交易价格为 41,000 美元时的怀疑态度形成鲜明对比。

Bitcoin Pushes Toward New Records

比特币推向新纪录

Despite its recent highs, Bitcoin remains a polarizing asset, as highlighted by Axel Adler Jr., who noted that the market is perpetually divided between doubters and believers.

正如小阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr.）所强调的那样，尽管比特币近期创下了新高，但它仍然是一种两极分化的资产，他指出市场永远分为怀疑者和相信者。

Bitcoin’s cycles of extreme optimism and caution are unlikely to change, even as it pushes toward new records.

比特币极端乐观和谨慎的周期不太可能改变，即使它不断推向新纪录。

As Bitcoin consolidates below $100k, the question remains: Is this the calm before another explosive move? With record demand, institutional backing, and favorable macro conditions, Bitcoin appears poised for a decisive end to the year.

随着比特币在 10 万美元以下盘整，问题仍然存在：这是另一场爆炸性走势之前的平静吗？凭借创纪录的需求、机构支持和有利的宏观条件，比特币似乎已准备好在今年年底取得决定性的成果。

Whether it can sustain this momentum will depend on a delicate interplay of market forces and policy decisions.

能否维持这一势头将取决于市场力量和政策决定之间的微妙相互作用。