比特幣 (BTC) 需求超過 2023 年 3 月水平，研究人員著眼於新紀錄

投資者需求已超過 2023 年 3 月的水準 4%，正在激發人們對新里程碑的樂觀情緒。在上次飆升期間，比特幣的市值接近 3 兆美元。

Surging investor demand, already outpacing levels seen during Bitcoin’s last major rally to $70,000 in March 2023 by 4%, is fueling optimism for new milestones.

投資者需求的激增，已經比 2023 年 3 月比特幣上次大幅上漲至 70,000 美元時的水平高出 4%，這正在激發人們對新里程碑的樂觀情緒。

During the last surge, Bitcoin’s market capitalization came close to $3 trillion, according to CoinGecko.

根據 CoinGecko 的數據，在上次飆升期間，比特幣的市值接近 3 兆美元。

As the year-end approaches, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve and its upcoming policy decisions, which could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

隨著年底的臨近，所有人的目光都集中在聯準會及其即將推出的政策決定上，這可能會影響比特幣的走勢。

Bitcoin Demand Surges to March 2023 Levels

比特幣需求飆升至 2023 年 3 月水平

Bitcoin demand is currently outpacing levels last seen during its $70,000 rally in March 2023, as noted by Axel Adler Jr., a researcher and author at CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 的研究員兼作者 Axel Adler Jr. 指出，比特幣需求目前超過了 2023 年 3 月上漲 7 萬美元期間的水平。

During prior bull cycles, demand peaks were at 205% and 133%, respectively, suggesting that the current surge could be a prelude to further highs.

在先前的多頭週期中，需求高峰分別為 205% 和 133%，這表明當前的飆升可能是進一步高點的前奏。

This robust appetite for Bitcoin comes as the cryptocurrency matures, with its volatility hitting record lows, according to CryptoBanter show host Kyledoops on X, highlighting Glassnode’s data.

CryptoBanter 節目主持人 Kyledoops 在 X 上強調了 Glassnode 的數據，表示隨著加密貨幣的成熟，比特幣的強勁需求隨之而來，其波動性創下歷史新低。

He also noted that institutional adoption and market stability are transforming Bitcoin into a dependable financial asset.

他還指出，機構採用和市場穩定正在將比特幣轉變為可靠的金融資產。

Adding to the bullish narrative is President-elect Donald Trump’s vocal support for cryptocurrencies. Trump has pledged to make the US a global leader in digital assets, proposing favorable regulations and even a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

當選總統唐納德·川普對加密貨幣的直言不諱的支持加劇了看漲情緒。川普承諾讓美國成為數位資產領域的全球領導者，提出有利的法規，甚至建立比特幣戰略儲備。

This policy stance has injected fresh energy into the market, attracting investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

這項政策立場為市場注入了新的活力，吸引了尋求投資比特幣長期潛力的投資者。

Institutions Pivot, Derivative Bets傾斜

機構樞軸，衍生性商品押注斜率

The institutional pivot toward Bitcoin is unmistakable. MicroStrategy Inc., a Bitcoin-focused firm, is set to join the Nasdaq 100 Index.

機構轉向比特幣的趨勢是明確無誤的。 MicroStrategy Inc. 是一家專注於比特幣的公司，即將加入納斯達克 100 指數。

The inclusion underscores Bitcoin’s growing mainstream acceptance and highlights how corporate entities continue to embrace it as a strategic asset.

此次納入凸顯了比特幣日益被主流接受，並凸顯了企業實體如何繼續將其視為戰略資產。

MicroStrategy, led by Bitcoin permabull Michael Saylor, currently holds 439,002 BTC, valued at $46.9 billion at the current market price. This makes Microstrategy the largest corporate HODler of BTC.

由比特幣永久看漲者 Michael Saylor 領導的 MicroStrategy 目前持有 439,002 BTC，以當前市場價格計算價值 469 億美元。這使得 Microstrategy 成為 BTC 最大的企業持有者。

On the derivatives front, the Deribit options exchange is seeing a concentration of bullish bets at the $120,000 strike price.

在衍生性商品方面，Deribit 選擇權交易所的看漲押注集中在 12 萬美元的執行價。

This reflects traders’ belief in Bitcoin’s ability to extend its gains, particularly as macroeconomic conditions evolve.

這反映了交易者對比特幣擴大收益能力的信心，特別是隨著宏觀經濟狀況的變化。

According to analysts at K33 Research, Bitcoin’s momentum could strengthen during the quiet weeks following the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2024.

K33 Research 分析師表示，在聯準會 2024 年最後一次會議後的安靜幾週內，比特幣的勢頭可能會增強。

The Impact of Economic and Political Drivers

經濟和政治驅動因素的影響

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a quarter-point rate cut this week, which could bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against traditional financial risks.

人們普遍預期聯準會本週將宣布降息四分之一個百分點，這可能會增強比特幣作為對沖傳統金融風險的吸引力。

However, market uncertainty remains, given the robust US economic growth and inflation concerns tied to Trump’s broader policy agenda.

然而，鑑於美國經濟強勁成長以及與川普更廣泛政策議程相關的通膨擔憂，市場不確定性仍然存在。

Bitcoin has also benefited from renewed retail interest. Its price has risen over 55% since Trump’s election victory on November 5, with US-based exchange-traded funds seeing significant inflows.

比特幣也受益於零售興趣的恢復。自 11 月 5 日川普當選以來，其價格已上漲超過 55%，美國交易所交易基金 (ETF) 出現大量資金流入。

This starkly contrasts Bitcoin’s skepticism a year ago when it traded at $41,000.

這與一年前比特幣交易價格為 41,000 美元時的懷疑形成鮮明對比。

Bitcoin Pushes Toward New Records

比特幣推向新紀錄

Despite its recent highs, Bitcoin remains a polarizing asset, as highlighted by Axel Adler Jr., who noted that the market is perpetually divided between doubters and believers.

正如小阿克塞爾·阿德勒（Axel Adler Jr.）所強調的那樣，儘管比特幣近期創下了新高，但它仍然是一種兩極分化的資產，他指出市場永遠分為懷疑者和相信者。

Bitcoin’s cycles of extreme optimism and caution are unlikely to change, even as it pushes toward new records.

比特幣極端樂觀和謹慎的周期不太可能改變，即使它不斷推向新紀錄。

As Bitcoin consolidates below $100k, the question remains: Is this the calm before another explosive move? With record demand, institutional backing, and favorable macro conditions, Bitcoin appears poised for a decisive end to the year.

隨著比特幣在 10 萬美元以下盤整，問題依然存在：這是另一個爆炸性走勢之前的平靜嗎？憑藉創紀錄的需求、機構支持和有利的宏觀條件，比特幣似乎已準備好在今年年底取得決定性的進展。

Whether it can sustain this momentum will depend on a delicate interplay of market forces and policy decisions.

能否維持這一勢頭將取決於市場力量和政策決定之間的微妙相互作用。