比特币 (BTC) 150 天均线 aSOPR 目前值为 1.01

以下是链上指标的历史模式表明积累比特币的时间是否已经结束。

Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating around the $66,000-$67,000 mark for the past couple of weeks now. This sideways trend has come after a strong rally earlier in Q4 2021, which saw the cryptocurrency reach a new all-time high (ATH) around $69,000.

过去几周，比特币的价格一直在 66,000 美元至 67,000 美元大关附近盘整。这种横盘趋势是在 2021 年第四季度早些时候强劲反弹之后出现的，当时加密货币达到了 69,000 美元左右的历史新高 (ATH)。

Now, an on-chain indicator is suggesting that accumulating BTC at the current levels could set investors up for some solid long-term gains. Here’s what the historical pattern of this indicator has to say regarding whether the time to accumulate Bitcoin is over or not.

现在，链上指标表明，在当前水平积累 BTC 可能会让投资者获得一些稳固的长期收益。以下是该指标的历史模式对于积累比特币的时间是否已经结束的说法。

Bitcoin 150-Day MA aSOPR Currently Has A Value Of 1.01

比特币 150 天 MA aSOPR 目前值为 1.01

As pointed out by an analyst in a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the 150-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin aSOPR has a value of just 1.01 at the moment. The “Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio” (aSOPR) here refers to an indicator that essentially tells us about whether BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss.

正如一位分析师在最近的 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中指出的那样，比特币 aSOPR 的 150 天移动平均线 (MA) 目前仅为 1.01。这里的“调整后的支出产出利润率”（aSOPR）指的是一个指标，它本质上告诉我们比特币投资者是在盈利还是亏损的情况下出售他们的代币。

This metric works by going through the on-chain history of all tokens being sold/transferred to see what price they were transacted at prior to this. When this price for any coin is less than the current price at which they are now being sold, then that particular token’s sale could be assumed to be leading to a realized profit.

该指标的工作原理是遍历所有被出售/转让的代币的链上历史记录，以了解它们在此之前的交易价格。当任何代币的价格低于其当前出售价格时，则可以假设该特定代币的出售会带来已实现的利润。

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Conversely, coins of the opposite type could be considered to be adding to the realized loss. The aSOPR combines such profits and losses being realized across the network and calculates their ratio.

相反，相反类型的硬币可以被视为增加已实现的损失。 aSOPR 将整个网络实现的利润和损失结合起来并计算它们的比率。

The “adjusted” in this metric’s name comes from the fact that it filters out transactions of coins that were moved inside an hour of their last transaction. Transfers like these are generally of no consequence to the wider market, so it makes sense to take them out of the data.

该指标名称中的“调整”来自于这样一个事实：它过滤掉了上次交易后一小时内移动的代币交易。此类转移通常对更广泛的市场没有影响，因此将其从数据中删除是有意义的。

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 150-day MA of the Bitcoin aSOPR over the last few years:

现在，这是一张图表，显示了过去几年比特币 aSOPR 150 日均线的趋势：

Bitcoin aSOPR 150-Day MA has been above 1 for most of 2022. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币 aSOPR 150 天移动平均线在 2022 年的大部分时间里一直高于 1。来源：CryptoQuant

As evident from the above graph, the 150-day MA Bitcoin aSOPR has remained above the 1 mark consistently this year, implying that on balance, investors have been realizing more profits than losses.

从上图可以看出，150日均线比特币aSOPR今年一直保持在1大关之上，这意味着总体而言，投资者的利润多于损失。

Earlier in the year, the indicator had grown to a high of 1.04 as investors booked profits from the rally. However, as the cryptocurrency’s consolidation has dragged on, the metric has declined, reaching a value of 1.01 now.

今年早些时候，随着投资者从上涨中获利了结，该指标已升至 1.04 的高位。然而，随着加密货币整合的拖延，该指标有所下降，目前已达到 1.01。

In the chart, the quant has highlighted two zones that have historically been important for the aSOPR. The first is the region below 0.98, where bottoms have historically formed. At levels this low, investors are largely realizing significant losses. Diamond hands are picking up the coins from these capitulators, helping the price find a turning point.

在图表中，这位量化分析师突出显示了历史上对 aSOPR 很重要的两个区域。第一个区域是低于 0.98 的区域，历史上已经在此区域形成底部。在如此低的水平上，投资者基本上会遭受重大损失。钻石手正在从这些投降者手中捡起硬币，帮助价格找到转折点。

The other zone is the one above 1.08, where tops have formed in the past due to aggressive profit-taking from the whales. So far, the current cycle hasn’t seen Bitcoin aSOPR visit this territory.

另一个区域是 1.08 以上的区域，过去由于鲸鱼的激进获利了结，该区域已形成顶部。到目前为止，当前周期还没有看到比特币 aSOPR 访问这个领域。

“Based on previous trends, accumulating aSOPR until 1.04 could be a solid strategy for long-term gains,” the analyst noted. “Timing the market by observing whale behavior may prove fruitful.”

“根据之前的趋势，将 aSOPR 积累到 1.04 可能是实现长期收益的可靠策略，”分析师指出。 “通过观察鲸鱼的行为来把握市场时机可能会取得成果。”

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin had plunged to the $65,000 level yesterday, but the coin has already made a recovery as its price is now floating around $67,100.

比特币昨天暴跌至 65,000 美元的水平，但该币已经反弹，目前价格在 67,100 美元左右浮动。

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