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以下是鏈上指標的歷史模式顯示累積比特幣的時間是否已經結束。
Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating around the $66,000-$67,000 mark for the past couple of weeks now. This sideways trend has come after a strong rally earlier in Q4 2021, which saw the cryptocurrency reach a new all-time high (ATH) around $69,000.
過去幾週,比特幣的價格一直在 66,000 美元至 67,000 美元大關附近盤整。這種橫盤趨勢是在 2021 年第四季早些時候強勁反彈之後出現的,當時加密貨幣達到了 69,000 美元左右的歷史新高 (ATH)。
Now, an on-chain indicator is suggesting that accumulating BTC at the current levels could set investors up for some solid long-term gains. Here’s what the historical pattern of this indicator has to say regarding whether the time to accumulate Bitcoin is over or not.
現在,鏈上指標表明,在當前水準累積 BTC 可能會讓投資者獲得一些穩固的長期收益。以下是該指標的歷史模式對於累積比特幣的時間是否已經結束的說法。
Bitcoin 150-Day MA aSOPR Currently Has A Value Of 1.01
比特幣 150 天 MA aSOPR 目前值為 1.01
As pointed out by an analyst in a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the 150-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin aSOPR has a value of just 1.01 at the moment. The “Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio” (aSOPR) here refers to an indicator that essentially tells us about whether BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss.
正如一位分析師在最近的 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中指出的那樣,比特幣 aSOPR 的 150 天移動平均線 (MA) 目前僅為 1.01。這裡的「調整後的支出產出利潤率」(aSOPR)指的是一個指標,它本質上告訴我們比特幣投資者是在盈利還是虧損的情況下出售他們的代幣。
This metric works by going through the on-chain history of all tokens being sold/transferred to see what price they were transacted at prior to this. When this price for any coin is less than the current price at which they are now being sold, then that particular token’s sale could be assumed to be leading to a realized profit.
該指標的工作原理是遍歷所有被出售/轉讓的代幣的鏈上歷史記錄,以了解它們在此之前的交易價格。當任何代幣的價格低於其當前出售價格時,則可以假設該特定代幣的出售會帶來已實現的利潤。
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Conversely, coins of the opposite type could be considered to be adding to the realized loss. The aSOPR combines such profits and losses being realized across the network and calculates their ratio.
相反,相反類型的硬幣可以被視為增加已實現的損失。 aSOPR 將整個網路實現的利潤和損失結合起來併計算它們的比率。
The “adjusted” in this metric’s name comes from the fact that it filters out transactions of coins that were moved inside an hour of their last transaction. Transfers like these are generally of no consequence to the wider market, so it makes sense to take them out of the data.
該指標名稱中的「調整」來自於這樣一個事實:它過濾掉了上次交易後一小時內移動的代幣交易。此類轉移通常對更廣泛的市場沒有影響,因此將其從數據中刪除是有意義的。
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 150-day MA of the Bitcoin aSOPR over the last few years:
現在,這是一張圖表,顯示了過去幾年比特幣 aSOPR 150 日均線的趨勢:
Bitcoin aSOPR 150-Day MA has been above 1 for most of 2022. Source: CryptoQuant
比特幣 aSOPR 150 天移動平均線在 2022 年的大部分時間裡一直高於 1。
As evident from the above graph, the 150-day MA Bitcoin aSOPR has remained above the 1 mark consistently this year, implying that on balance, investors have been realizing more profits than losses.
從上圖可以看出,150日均線比特幣aSOPR今年一直維持在1大關之上,這意味著整體而言,投資者的利潤多於損失。
Earlier in the year, the indicator had grown to a high of 1.04 as investors booked profits from the rally. However, as the cryptocurrency’s consolidation has dragged on, the metric has declined, reaching a value of 1.01 now.
今年早些時候,隨著投資者從上漲中獲利了結,該指標已升至 1.04 的高點。然而,隨著加密貨幣整合的拖延,該指標有所下降,目前已達到 1.01。
In the chart, the quant has highlighted two zones that have historically been important for the aSOPR. The first is the region below 0.98, where bottoms have historically formed. At levels this low, investors are largely realizing significant losses. Diamond hands are picking up the coins from these capitulators, helping the price find a turning point.
在圖表中,這位量化分析師突出顯示了歷史上對 aSOPR 很重要的兩個區域。第一個區域是低於 0.98 的區域,歷史上已經在此區域形成底部。在如此低的水平上,投資者基本上會遭受重大損失。鑽石手正在從這些投降者手中撿起硬幣,幫助價格找到轉折點。
The other zone is the one above 1.08, where tops have formed in the past due to aggressive profit-taking from the whales. So far, the current cycle hasn’t seen Bitcoin aSOPR visit this territory.
另一個區域是 1.08 以上的區域,過去由於鯨魚的激進獲利了結,該區域已形成頂部。到目前為止,當前週期還沒有看到比特幣 aSOPR 訪問這個領域。
“Based on previous trends, accumulating aSOPR until 1.04 could be a solid strategy for long-term gains,” the analyst noted. “Timing the market by observing whale behavior may prove fruitful.”
該分析師指出:“根據先前的趨勢,將 aSOPR 累積到 1.04 可能是實現長期收益的可靠策略。” “通過觀察鯨魚的行為來把握市場時機可能會取得成果。”
BTC Price
比特幣價格
Bitcoin had plunged to the $65,000 level yesterday, but the coin has already made a recovery as its price is now floating around $67,100.
比特幣昨天暴跌至 65,000 美元的水平,但該幣已經反彈,目前價格在 67,100 美元左右浮動。
Related Reading | Bitcoin Profitability Index Hits 202%: Is This Enough For A Top?
相關閱讀 |比特幣獲利指數達202%:這足以登頂嗎?
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