由于特朗普的行政命令

在最近的备忘录中，Bitwise首席投资官（CIO）Matt Hougan分享了他对唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）政府领导下的比特币（BTC）4年周期的想法。

Recent statements by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan have sparked議論 regarding the potential impact of shifting cryptocurrency policies under the Trump administration on the renowned 4-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle. Hougan's commentary specifically aimed to determine whether such changes could extend the current bull market into 2026 and beyond.

Bitwise首席投资官（CIO）Matt Hougan的最新声明引发了有关特朗普政府在著名的4年比特币（BTC）周期下转移加密货币政策的潜在影响。霍根（Hougan）的评论专门旨在确定这种变化是否可以将当前的牛市市场扩展到2026年及以后。

As a backdrop, the Bitcoin 4-year cycle broadly describes the digital asset's historical price pattern, typically manifesting as three years of strong appreciation followed by a year of major pullback across cryptocurrencies. The following chart visually depicts this cycle.

作为背景，比特币的4年周期广泛地描述了数字资产的历史价格模式，通常表现为三年的强烈欣赏，然后是一年在加密货币的重大回调。以下图表在视觉上描绘了这个周期。

Based on this cycle, 2025 is poised to be another year of positive price action for BTC, while 2026 could herald a ‘crypto winter,’ characterized by sustained deleveraging and declining prices across digital assets.

基于这个周期，2025年有望成为BTC的又一年，而2026年可以预示“加密冬季”，其特征是持续的去杠杆化和数字资产的价格下降。

Hougan, however, took issue with the common narrative attributing Bitcoin's 4-year cycle to its halving events. He highlighted that BTC's quadrennial halvings, which occurred in 2016, 2020, and 2024, do not precisely align with the cycle's peaks and troughs.

然而，霍根（Hougan）对比特币（Bitcoin）的四年周期的常见叙事构成了质疑。他强调说，BTC的四年一年中的过度发生在2016年，2020年和2024年，与周期的峰值和低谷完全不符。

Regarding the current market phase, Hougan reiterated Bitwise's earlier prediction that BTC could double in price this year, surpassing $200,000. He identified the primary drivers as institutional inflows into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased BTC purchases by corporations and governments.

关于当前的市场阶段，霍根重申了Bitwise的早期预测，即BTC今年的价格可能翻一番，超过20万美元。他将主要驱动因素确定为机构流入加密交易所交易资金（ETF），并增加了公司和政府的BTC购买。

Hougan further described Trump's recent crypto executive order (EO) as “overwhelmingly bullish,” highlighting how it frames the expansion of the US crypto ecosystem as a national priority. The EO also calls for the establishment of a “national crypto stockpile” and lays the groundwork for Wall Street banks and institutional investors to enter the market under favorable regulations. Hougan elaborated:

霍根进一步将特朗普最近的加密行政命令（EO）描述为“绝大多数看涨”，强调了它如何将美国加密生态系统扩展为国家优先事项。 EO还呼吁建立“国家加密储备”，并为华尔街银行和机构投资者奠定了基础，以根据有利的法规进入市场。霍根详细说明：

“In my view, the launch of ETFs was a big enough event to bring hundreds of billions of dollars into the crypto ecosystem from new investors. That was what was driving this cycle. But the full mainstreaming of crypto – the one contemplated by Trump’s executive order, where banks custody crypto alongside other assets, stablecoins are integrated broadly into the global payments ecosystem, and the largest institutions establish positions in crypto – I’m convinced will bring trillions.”

“我认为，ETF的推出是一项足够大的活动，可以从新投资者带入加密生态系统中。那就是推动这个周期的原因。但是，加密货币的全部主流化 - 特朗普的行政命令所考虑的一项，银行将保管加密货币与其他资产一起，稳定的稳定性广泛整合到全球付款生态系统中，而最大的机构在加密货币中建立了立场 - 我坚信我会带来万亿。透明

Hougan noted that the EO's full impact will unfold over years rather than months, highlighting key reasons for this gradual progression. Firstly, newly appointed White House crypto czar David Sacks will need time to develop a comprehensive regulatory framework. Secondly, major Wall Street firms will likely take even longer to fully recognize and integrate crypto's potential.

Hougan指出，EO的全部影响将在数年而不是几个月内展开，这强调了这种逐步发展的关键原因。首先，新任命的白宫加密沙皇大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks）将需要时间来开发全面的监管框架。其次，华尔街主要公司可能需要更长的时间才能完全认识并整合加密货币的潜力。

Hougan concluded by suggesting that while the market has not entirely broken free from Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, any pullbacks will likely be shallower and shorter-lived compared to previous downturns.

豪扬（Hougan）提出，尽管市场并未完全摆脱比特币的传统4年周期，但与以前的低迷相比，任何回调都可能是较浅且寿命较短的。

Similar to Bitwise's prediction, Standard Chartered recently forecasted that BTC may surge as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $106,119, up 3.7% in the past 24 hours.

与Bitwise的预测类似，最近租用的标准预测，到2025年底，BTC可能会高达20万美元。在发稿时，BTC的交易价格为106,119美元，在过去24小时内增长了3.7％。