Bitcoin (BTC) 4-Year Cycle May Be Extended to 2026 and Beyond, Thanks to Trump's Executive Order

In a recent memo, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan shared his thoughts on the Bitcoin (BTC) 4-year cycle and its relevance under Donald Trump's administration.

Recent statements by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan have sparked議論 regarding the potential impact of shifting cryptocurrency policies under the Trump administration on the renowned 4-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle. Hougan's commentary specifically aimed to determine whether such changes could extend the current bull market into 2026 and beyond.

As a backdrop, the Bitcoin 4-year cycle broadly describes the digital asset's historical price pattern, typically manifesting as three years of strong appreciation followed by a year of major pullback across cryptocurrencies. The following chart visually depicts this cycle.

Based on this cycle, 2025 is poised to be another year of positive price action for BTC, while 2026 could herald a ‘crypto winter,’ characterized by sustained deleveraging and declining prices across digital assets.

Hougan, however, took issue with the common narrative attributing Bitcoin's 4-year cycle to its halving events. He highlighted that BTC's quadrennial halvings, which occurred in 2016, 2020, and 2024, do not precisely align with the cycle's peaks and troughs.

Regarding the current market phase, Hougan reiterated Bitwise's earlier prediction that BTC could double in price this year, surpassing $200,000. He identified the primary drivers as institutional inflows into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased BTC purchases by corporations and governments.

Hougan further described Trump's recent crypto executive order (EO) as “overwhelmingly bullish,” highlighting how it frames the expansion of the US crypto ecosystem as a national priority. The EO also calls for the establishment of a “national crypto stockpile” and lays the groundwork for Wall Street banks and institutional investors to enter the market under favorable regulations. Hougan elaborated:

“In my view, the launch of ETFs was a big enough event to bring hundreds of billions of dollars into the crypto ecosystem from new investors. That was what was driving this cycle. But the full mainstreaming of crypto – the one contemplated by Trump’s executive order, where banks custody crypto alongside other assets, stablecoins are integrated broadly into the global payments ecosystem, and the largest institutions establish positions in crypto – I’m convinced will bring trillions.”

Hougan noted that the EO's full impact will unfold over years rather than months, highlighting key reasons for this gradual progression. Firstly, newly appointed White House crypto czar David Sacks will need time to develop a comprehensive regulatory framework. Secondly, major Wall Street firms will likely take even longer to fully recognize and integrate crypto's potential.

Hougan concluded by suggesting that while the market has not entirely broken free from Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, any pullbacks will likely be shallower and shorter-lived compared to previous downturns.

Similar to Bitwise's prediction, Standard Chartered recently forecasted that BTC may surge as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $106,119, up 3.7% in the past 24 hours.