由於特朗普的行政命令

在最近的備忘錄中，Bitwise首席投資官（CIO）Matt Hougan分享了他對唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）政府領導下的比特幣（BTC）4年周期的想法。

Recent statements by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan have sparked議論 regarding the potential impact of shifting cryptocurrency policies under the Trump administration on the renowned 4-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle. Hougan's commentary specifically aimed to determine whether such changes could extend the current bull market into 2026 and beyond.

Bitwise首席投資官（CIO）Matt Hougan的最新聲明引發了有關特朗普政府在著名的4年比特幣（BTC）週期下轉移加密貨幣政策的潛在影響。霍根（Hougan）的評論專門旨在確定這種變化是否可以將當前的牛市市場擴展到2026年及以後。

As a backdrop, the Bitcoin 4-year cycle broadly describes the digital asset's historical price pattern, typically manifesting as three years of strong appreciation followed by a year of major pullback across cryptocurrencies. The following chart visually depicts this cycle.

作為背景，比特幣的4年周期廣泛地描述了數字資產的歷史價格模式，通常表現為三年的強烈欣賞，然後是一年在加密貨幣的重大回調。以下圖表在視覺上描繪了這個週期。

Based on this cycle, 2025 is poised to be another year of positive price action for BTC, while 2026 could herald a ‘crypto winter,’ characterized by sustained deleveraging and declining prices across digital assets.

基於這個週期，2025年有望成為BTC的又一年，而2026年可以預示“加密冬季”，其特徵是持續的去槓桿化和數字資產的價格下降。

Hougan, however, took issue with the common narrative attributing Bitcoin's 4-year cycle to its halving events. He highlighted that BTC's quadrennial halvings, which occurred in 2016, 2020, and 2024, do not precisely align with the cycle's peaks and troughs.

然而，霍根（Hougan）對比特幣（Bitcoin）的四年周期的常見敘事構成了質疑。他強調說，BTC的四年一年中的過度發生在2016年，2020年和2024年，與週期的峰值和低谷完全不符。

Regarding the current market phase, Hougan reiterated Bitwise's earlier prediction that BTC could double in price this year, surpassing $200,000. He identified the primary drivers as institutional inflows into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased BTC purchases by corporations and governments.

關於當前的市場階段，霍根重申了Bitwise的早期預測，即BTC今年的價格可能翻一番，超過20萬美元。他將主要驅動因素確定為機構流入加密交易所交易資金（ETF），並增加了公司和政府的BTC購買。

Hougan further described Trump's recent crypto executive order (EO) as “overwhelmingly bullish,” highlighting how it frames the expansion of the US crypto ecosystem as a national priority. The EO also calls for the establishment of a “national crypto stockpile” and lays the groundwork for Wall Street banks and institutional investors to enter the market under favorable regulations. Hougan elaborated:

霍根進一步將特朗普最近的加密行政命令（EO）描述為“絕大多數看漲”，強調了它如何將美國加密生態系統擴展為國家優先事項。 EO還呼籲建立“國家加密儲備”，並為華爾街銀行和機構投資者奠定了基礎，以根據有利的法規進入市場。霍根詳細說明：

“In my view, the launch of ETFs was a big enough event to bring hundreds of billions of dollars into the crypto ecosystem from new investors. That was what was driving this cycle. But the full mainstreaming of crypto – the one contemplated by Trump’s executive order, where banks custody crypto alongside other assets, stablecoins are integrated broadly into the global payments ecosystem, and the largest institutions establish positions in crypto – I’m convinced will bring trillions.”

“我認為，ETF的推出是一項足夠大的活動，可以從新投資者帶入加密生態系統中。那就是推動這個週期的原因。但是，加密貨幣的全部主流化- 特朗普的行政命令所考慮的一項，銀行將保管加密貨幣與其他資產一起，穩定的穩定性廣泛整合到全球付款生態系統中，而最大的機構在加密貨幣中建立了立場- 我堅信我會帶來萬億。透明

Hougan noted that the EO's full impact will unfold over years rather than months, highlighting key reasons for this gradual progression. Firstly, newly appointed White House crypto czar David Sacks will need time to develop a comprehensive regulatory framework. Secondly, major Wall Street firms will likely take even longer to fully recognize and integrate crypto's potential.

Hougan指出，EO的全部影響將在數年而不是幾個月內展開，這強調了這種逐步發展的關鍵原因。首先，新任命的白宮加密沙皇大衛·薩克斯（David Sacks）將需要時間來開發全面的監管框架。其次，華爾街主要公司可能需要更長的時間才能完全認識並整合加密貨幣的潛力。

Hougan concluded by suggesting that while the market has not entirely broken free from Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, any pullbacks will likely be shallower and shorter-lived compared to previous downturns.

豪揚（Hougan）提出，儘管市場並未完全擺脫比特幣的傳統4年周期，但與以前的低迷相比，任何回調都可能是較淺且壽命較短的。

Similar to Bitwise's prediction, Standard Chartered recently forecasted that BTC may surge as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $106,119, up 3.7% in the past 24 hours.

與Bitwise的預測類似，最近租用的標準預測，到2025年底，BTC可能會高達20萬美元。在發稿時，BTC的交易價格為106,119美元，在過去24小時內增長了3.7％。