比特币的[BTC]目前的价格行动反映了其2017年3月的周期，BTC距其顶峰还九个月。

如果历史重复，BTC可以在第4季度2025年进入其下一个“极端贪婪”阶段，这标志着其牛的最后一站。

Bitcoin's [BTC] current price action is strikingly similar to the March 2017 cycle, rendering it the ideal subject for this week's LTC Futures premium analysis.

比特币的[BTC]当前价格行动与2017年3月的周期非常相似，这使其成为本周LTC期货高级分析的理想主题。

At this point in the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin was still nine months away from reaching its peak.

在2017年周期的这一点上，比特币距达到顶峰还有9个月的路程。

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin's price could enter the "extreme greed" phase by Q4 2025, signaling the final leg of its bull run.

如果历史重演，则比特币的价格可能会在第4季度2025年进入“极端贪婪”阶段，这标志着其牛的最后一站。

In that case, what would be Bitcoin's long-term price target if this cycle follows past patterns?

在这种情况下，如果这个周期遵循过去的模式，比特币的长期目标目标是什么？

Bitcoin's RSI signals a repeat of the 2017 cycle

比特币的RSI信号是2017年周期的重复

A recent X post highlighted that Bitcoin has returned to critically low RSI Bollinger Band % levels.

最近的X帖子强调，比特币已恢复到较低的RSI Bollinger频段％水平。

When BTC's RSI Bollinger Band % reaches critically low levels, it suggests that the asset is deeply oversold within its volatility range, often signaling a potential rebound.

当BTC的RSI Bollinger带％达到至关重要的水平时，这表明资产在其波动率范围内深售，通常表明潜在的反弹。

This pattern is similar to what happened in 2013, 2016, and 2020, just before Bitcoin reached new all-time highs.

这种模式与2013年，2016年和2020年发生的情况相似，就在比特币达到新的历史新高之前。

"Notably, the RSI Bollinger Bands now mirror 2017, when Bitcoin bottomed below $1k before surging 1,500% to $19,086 by Q4."

“值得注意的是，RSI布林乐队现在镜像2017年，当时比特币低于$ 1K，然后以第四季度飙升1,500％至19,086美元。”

However, at $83,078, BTC's price action remains uncertain.

但是，BTC的价格行动尚不确定为83,078美元。

Analysts warn that a local bottom hasn't formed yet, with institutional outflows accelerating and long-term holder supply dropping to pre-election lows - signs of short-term weakness.

分析师警告说，尚未形成本地底部，机构流出加速，长期持有人的供应降低到选举前低点 - 短期弱点的迹象。

Despite this volatility, Bitcoin's historical cycle patterns remain intact. If history repeats itself, could HODLing still prove to be the best long-term strategy?

尽管这种波动性，比特币的历史周期模式仍然完好无损。如果历史重演，霍德林仍然可以被证明是最佳的长期战略吗？

Identifying the next market top

确定下一个市场顶级

While a definitive bottom hasn't formed yet, there are no strong signals of a market top either.

虽然尚未形成确定的底部，但也没有强烈的市场顶级信号。

FOMO is steadily rising, while exchange reserves are plummeting to a one-year low, reflecting persistent long-term accumulation rather than profit-taking.

FOMO稳步上升，而交换储备却跌至一年低点，反映了持续的长期积累而不是获利。

In fact, despite Bitcoin's 22% pullback from its $109K peak, BTC supply on exchanges continues to shrink - a sign that investors are holding, not selling.

实际上，尽管比特币从其10.9万美元的峰值上回调了22％的回调，但BTC供应的交易所继续缩水 - 这是投资者正在持有而不是出售的标志。

For Bitcoin to replicate its 2017 bull cycle, this accumulation trend must persist.

为了使比特币复制其2017年公牛周期，这种积累趋势必须持续存在。

If sustained, historical data suggests that the market's true cycle top could still be nine months away.

如果持续存在，历史数据表明，市场的真实周期顶部仍可能需要九个月。

Even amid macro uncertainty and stock market liquidations, BTC has maintained its $77K-$80K range, reflecting unwavering investor confidence.

即使在宏观不确定性和股票市场清算中，BTC也保持了77,000美元的范围，这反映了坚定不移的投资者信心。

In the near term, breaking past $90K remains the key challenge. But in the long run, sustained accumulation and growing confidence could push Bitcoin into six-digit territory.

在短期内，超过$ 90K的折扣仍然是主要的挑战。但是从长远来看，持续的积累和越来越多的信心可以将比特币推向六位数的领域。