比特幣的[BTC]目前的價格行動反映了其2017年3月的周期，BTC距其頂峰還九個月。

如果歷史重複，BTC可以在第4季度2025年進入其下一個“極端貪婪”階段，這標誌著其牛的最後一站。

Bitcoin's [BTC] current price action is strikingly similar to the March 2017 cycle, rendering it the ideal subject for this week's LTC Futures premium analysis.

比特幣的[BTC]當前價格行動與2017年3月的周期非常相似，這使其成為本週LTC期貨高級分析的理想主題。

At this point in the 2017 cycle, Bitcoin was still nine months away from reaching its peak.

在2017年周期的這一點上，比特幣距達到頂峰還有9個月的路程。

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin's price could enter the "extreme greed" phase by Q4 2025, signaling the final leg of its bull run.

如果歷史重演，則比特幣的價格可能會在第4季度2025年進入“極端貪婪”階段，這標誌著其牛的最後一站。

In that case, what would be Bitcoin's long-term price target if this cycle follows past patterns?

在這種情況下，如果這個週期遵循過去的模式，比特幣的長期目標目標是什麼？

Bitcoin's RSI signals a repeat of the 2017 cycle

比特幣的RSI信號是2017年周期的重複

A recent X post highlighted that Bitcoin has returned to critically low RSI Bollinger Band % levels.

最近的X帖子強調，比特幣已恢復到較低的RSI Bollinger頻段％水平。

When BTC's RSI Bollinger Band % reaches critically low levels, it suggests that the asset is deeply oversold within its volatility range, often signaling a potential rebound.

當BTC的RSI Bollinger頻段％達到關鍵水平時，這表明該資產在其波動率範圍內深售，通常表明潛在的反彈。

This pattern is similar to what happened in 2013, 2016, and 2020, just before Bitcoin reached new all-time highs.

這種模式與2013年，2016年和2020年發生的情況相似，就在比特幣達到新的歷史新高之前。

"Notably, the RSI Bollinger Bands now mirror 2017, when Bitcoin bottomed below $1k before surging 1,500% to $19,086 by Q4."

“值得注意的是，RSI布林樂隊現在鏡像2017年，當時比特幣低於$ 1K，然後以第四季度飆升1,500％至19,086美元。”

However, at $83,078, BTC's price action remains uncertain.

但是，BTC的價格行動尚不確定為83,078美元。

Analysts warn that a local bottom hasn't formed yet, with institutional outflows accelerating and long-term holder supply dropping to pre-election lows - signs of short-term weakness.

分析師警告說，尚未形成本地底部，機構流出加速，長期持有人的供應降低到選舉前低點 - 短期弱點的跡象。

Despite this volatility, Bitcoin's historical cycle patterns remain intact. If history repeats itself, could HODLing still prove to be the best long-term strategy?

儘管這種波動性，比特幣的歷史週期模式仍然完好無損。如果歷史重演，霍德林仍然可以被證明是最佳的長期戰略嗎？

Identifying the next market top

確定下一個市場頂級

While a definitive bottom hasn't formed yet, there are no strong signals of a market top either.

雖然尚未形成確定的底部，但也沒有強烈的市場頂級信號。

FOMO is steadily rising, while exchange reserves are plummeting to a one-year low, reflecting persistent long-term accumulation rather than profit-taking.

FOMO穩步上升，而交換儲備卻跌至一年低點，反映了持續的長期積累而不是獲利。

In fact, despite Bitcoin's 22% pullback from its $109K peak, BTC supply on exchanges continues to shrink - a sign that investors are holding, not selling.

實際上，儘管比特幣從其10.9萬美元的峰值上回調了22％的回調，但BTC供應的交易所繼續縮水 - 這是投資者正在持有而不是出售的標誌。

For Bitcoin to replicate its 2017 bull cycle, this accumulation trend must persist.

為了使比特幣複製其2017年公牛週期，這種積累趨勢必須持續存在。

If sustained, historical data suggests that the market's true cycle top could still be nine months away.

如果持續存在，歷史數據表明，市場的真實週期頂部仍可能需要九個月。

Even amid macro uncertainty and stock market liquidations, BTC has maintained its $77K-$80K range, reflecting unwavering investor confidence.

即使在宏觀不確定性和股票市場清算中，BTC也保持了77,000美元的範圍，這反映了堅定不移的投資者信心。

In the near term, breaking past $90K remains the key challenge. But in the long run, sustained accumulation and growing confidence could push Bitcoin into six-digit territory.

在短期內，超過$ 90K的折扣仍然是主要的挑戰。但是從長遠來看，持續的積累和越來越多的信心可以將比特幣推向六位數的領域。