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比特币(BTC)的十字路口在80,000美元至85,000美元之间。似乎流动性在短侧积累,有可能引起诱人的清算。
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be at a crossroads, broadly speaking. After a period of sideways trading, it seems that liquidity is building up on the short side, potentially inviting liquidations.
从广义上讲,比特币(BTC)似乎处于十字路口。经过一段时间的侧向交易,似乎流动性在短侧积累,有可能诱人的清算。
Bitcoin is still in a decisive position, which may affect the newly built leveraged positions. BTC is still undecided on its direction, with the potential to crash again under $80,000 or attempt a recovery above $85,000.
比特币仍处于决定性的位置,这可能会影响新建的杠杆位置。 BTC仍然不确定其方向,有可能再次坠毁在80,000美元以下,或者尝试恢复85,000美元以上。
BTC traded at $82,302.53 by 09:03 UTC, having bounced from lows around $81,000. The leading coin is still trading under fearful conditions, with traders expecting more downside. Despite this, traders have taken risks with short positions, expecting higher returns as BTC remains under pressure.
BTC的交易价格为82,302.53美元,在09:03 UTC上以81,000美元的低点弹跳。领先的硬币仍在可怕的条件下进行交易,交易者期望有更多的缺点。尽管如此,交易者还是承担了短职位的风险,随着BTC仍处于压力,预计收益会更高。
Previously, BTC accumulated short positions around March 7, which suggested a hike to $94,000. The rapid shifting of positions may increase volatility and start another period of sideways trading with both long and short liquidations in a smaller range.
此前,BTC在3月7日左右积累了短职位,这意味着将徒步提高至94,000美元。位置的迅速转移可能会增加波动性,并在较小的范围内长时间和短清算开始另一个时期的侧向交易。
BTC short liquidations may lead to a new rally
BTC短清算可能会导致新的集会
As seen in the chart above, BTC has actually built more liquidity on the short side. If BTC breaks above $85,000, liquidations may reach over $16B.
如上图所示,BTC实际上在短侧建立了更多的流动性。如果BTC的破损超过$ 85,000,则清算可能超过$ 16B。
A drop to the $80,000 range can liquidate up to $5B in leveraged long positions. BTC open interest still hovers around $24B, as the market has deleveraged from its peak. However, trading may turn choppy as traders compete for positions within a few thousand dollars of each other.
下降到80,000美元的范围可以清算高达$ 5B的长位置。 BTC开放兴趣仍然徘徊在24B美元左右,因为市场从其顶峰开始。但是,随着交易者互相争夺几千美元的职位,交易可能会变得不稳定。
As a result, BTC mostly trades sideways, bound in a range with regular daily liquidations. Traders are becoming more brave in placing short positions, not expecting enough momentum for a short squeeze. Some of the more experienced traders hold their short positions enough to lock in gains, abandoning the trade before liquidations happen.
结果,BTC大多侧向交易,范围内有常规的每日清算。交易者在担任短职位方面变得越来越勇敢,没有足够的势头来短暂挤压。一些经验丰富的交易者的短职位足以锁定收益,在清算发生之前放弃了交易。
The trend for shorting BTC even led to one of the biggest short positions on Hyperliquid, which was not liquidated despite organized counter-trading. The whale, however, was strategic and did not hold the position after locking enough gains. Strategic trading may mean BTC short positions will not be so easy to liquidate, as traders anticipate the attempts.
缩短BTC的趋势甚至导致了超流动液的最大短职位之一,尽管有组织的反交易,但该趋势并未清算。但是,鲸鱼是战略性的,在锁定足够的收益后没有担任该职位。战略交易可能意味着BTC的短职位并不容易清算,因为交易者预计这些尝试。
BTC liquidations are slowing down
BTC清算正在放缓
BTC liquidations are slowing down, as the market sheds leverage. Long liquidations still dominate, as BTC regularly moves down to lower ranges. There are much fewer whales and market participants that can bid up BTC to attack short positions.
随着市场削弱杠杆作用,BTC清算正在放缓。随着BTC的定期移动到较低的范围,长时间的清算仍然占主导地位。鲸鱼和市场参与者少得多,可以竞标BTC以攻击短职位。
In the past day, BTC liquidations reached $57.37M, while the entire crypto market saw more than $212M in total liquidations. Of those liquidated positions, more than $157M were held in long positions. The trend to liquidate long positions first may be the defining factor for BTC price moves.
在过去的一天,BTC清算量达到5737万美元,而整个加密货币市场的总清算总额超过2.12亿美元。在这些清算职位中,长位置超过1.57亿美元。首先清算长头寸的趋势可能是BTC价格移动的决定性因素。
BTC currently trades with the expectation of a more decisive signal from the Fed FOMC meeting. A rate hike may turn the mood even more bearish, while a lowered interest rate may spark another BTC rally.
BTC目前进行交易,期望FOMC会议上会有更具决定性的信号。加息可能会使情绪更加看跌,而利率降低可能会引发另一场BTC集会。
Even without news, traders are still highly active and manage to sweep leveraged positions within a tight range between $81,000 and $82,000. Traders are not making big bets, but aim for small, relatively predictable shifts in the price.
即使没有新闻,交易者仍然很活跃,并设法将杠杆率在81,000美元至82,000美元之间。贸易商并不是要大量赌注,而是针对价格相对可预测的小转变。
BTC has already completed a 30% drawdown from its highs, and trades with decreased sentiment and available liquidity. Despite the increased stablecoin supply, the lack of direction makes traders extremely cautious to commit. Any decisive news, however, can lead to more rapid trading moves, liquidating traders before they can abandon their positions.
BTC已经从其高点中完成了30%的降低,并以减少情感和可用流动性的交易。尽管稳定的供应增加了,但缺乏方向使交易者非常谨慎。然而,任何决定性的新闻都可以导致更快的交易行动,在他们放弃头寸之前清算交易者。
In the meantime, high leverage allows traders to make big gains with relatively small collateral while waiting for a more decisive BTC price move. The leveraged trading also leads to retail capitulation, while long-term whales keep taking coins off the market.
同时,高杠杆率使交易者在等待更具决定性的BTC价格转移的同时,以相对较小的抵押品取得了巨大的收益。杠杆交易也导致零售投降,而长期鲸鱼不断将硬币从市场上销售。
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