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比特幣(BTC)的十字路口在80,000美元至85,000美元之間。似乎流動性在短側積累,有可能引起誘人的清算。
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be at a crossroads, broadly speaking. After a period of sideways trading, it seems that liquidity is building up on the short side, potentially inviting liquidations.
從廣義上講,比特幣(BTC)似乎處於十字路口。經過一段時間的側向交易,似乎流動性在短側積累,有可能誘人的清算。
Bitcoin is still in a decisive position, which may affect the newly built leveraged positions. BTC is still undecided on its direction, with the potential to crash again under $80,000 or attempt a recovery above $85,000.
比特幣仍處於決定性的位置,這可能會影響新建的槓杆位置。 BTC仍然不確定其方向,有可能再次墜毀在80,000美元以下,或者嘗試恢復85,000美元以上。
BTC traded at $82,302.53 by 09:03 UTC, having bounced from lows around $81,000. The leading coin is still trading under fearful conditions, with traders expecting more downside. Despite this, traders have taken risks with short positions, expecting higher returns as BTC remains under pressure.
BTC的交易價格為82,302.53美元,在09:03 UTC上以81,000美元的低點彈跳。領先的硬幣仍在可怕的條件下進行交易,交易者期望有更多的缺點。儘管如此,交易者還是承擔了短職位的風險,隨著BTC仍處於壓力,預計收益會更高。
Previously, BTC accumulated short positions around March 7, which suggested a hike to $94,000. The rapid shifting of positions may increase volatility and start another period of sideways trading with both long and short liquidations in a smaller range.
此前,BTC在3月7日左右積累了短職位,這意味著將徒步提高至94,000美元。位置的迅速轉移可能會增加波動性,並在較小的範圍內長時間和短清算開始另一個時期的側向交易。
BTC short liquidations may lead to a new rally
BTC短清算可能會導致新的集會
As seen in the chart above, BTC has actually built more liquidity on the short side. If BTC breaks above $85,000, liquidations may reach over $16B.
如上圖所示,BTC實際上在短側建立了更多的流動性。如果BTC的破損超過$ 85,000,則清算可能超過$ 16B。
A drop to the $80,000 range can liquidate up to $5B in leveraged long positions. BTC open interest still hovers around $24B, as the market has deleveraged from its peak. However, trading may turn choppy as traders compete for positions within a few thousand dollars of each other.
下降到80,000美元的範圍可以清算高達$ 5B的長位置。 BTC開放興趣仍然徘徊在24B美元左右,因為市場從其頂峰開始。但是,隨著交易者互相爭奪幾千美元的職位,交易可能會變得不穩定。
As a result, BTC mostly trades sideways, bound in a range with regular daily liquidations. Traders are becoming more brave in placing short positions, not expecting enough momentum for a short squeeze. Some of the more experienced traders hold their short positions enough to lock in gains, abandoning the trade before liquidations happen.
結果,BTC大多側向交易,範圍內有常規的每日清算。交易者在擔任短職位方面變得越來越勇敢,沒有足夠的勢頭來短暫擠壓。一些經驗豐富的交易者的短職位足以鎖定收益,在清算發生之前放棄了交易。
The trend for shorting BTC even led to one of the biggest short positions on Hyperliquid, which was not liquidated despite organized counter-trading. The whale, however, was strategic and did not hold the position after locking enough gains. Strategic trading may mean BTC short positions will not be so easy to liquidate, as traders anticipate the attempts.
縮短BTC的趨勢甚至導致了超流動液的最大短職位之一,儘管有組織的反交易,但該趨勢並未清算。但是,鯨魚是戰略性的,在鎖定足夠的收益後沒有擔任該職位。戰略交易可能意味著BTC的短職位並不容易清算,因為交易者預計這些嘗試。
BTC liquidations are slowing down
BTC清算正在放緩
BTC liquidations are slowing down, as the market sheds leverage. Long liquidations still dominate, as BTC regularly moves down to lower ranges. There are much fewer whales and market participants that can bid up BTC to attack short positions.
隨著市場削弱槓桿作用,BTC清算正在放緩。隨著BTC的定期移動到較低的範圍,長時間的清算仍然占主導地位。鯨魚和市場參與者少得多,可以競標BTC以攻擊短職位。
In the past day, BTC liquidations reached $57.37M, while the entire crypto market saw more than $212M in total liquidations. Of those liquidated positions, more than $157M were held in long positions. The trend to liquidate long positions first may be the defining factor for BTC price moves.
在過去的一天,BTC清算量達到5737萬美元,而整個加密貨幣市場的總清算總額超過2.12億美元。在這些清算職位中,長位置超過1.57億美元。首先清算長頭寸的趨勢可能是BTC價格移動的決定性因素。
BTC currently trades with the expectation of a more decisive signal from the Fed FOMC meeting. A rate hike may turn the mood even more bearish, while a lowered interest rate may spark another BTC rally.
BTC目前進行交易,期望FOMC會議上會有更具決定性的信號。加息可能會使情緒更加看跌,而利率降低可能會引發另一場BTC集會。
Even without news, traders are still highly active and manage to sweep leveraged positions within a tight range between $81,000 and $82,000. Traders are not making big bets, but aim for small, relatively predictable shifts in the price.
即使沒有新聞,交易者仍然很活躍,並設法將槓桿率在81,000美元至82,000美元之間。貿易商並不是要大量賭注,而是針對價格相對可預測的小轉變。
BTC has already completed a 30% drawdown from its highs, and trades with decreased sentiment and available liquidity. Despite the increased stablecoin supply, the lack of direction makes traders extremely cautious to commit. Any decisive news, however, can lead to more rapid trading moves, liquidating traders before they can abandon their positions.
BTC已經從其高點中完成了30%的降低,並以減少情感和可用流動性的交易。儘管穩定的供應增加了,但缺乏方向使交易者非常謹慎。然而,任何決定性的新聞都可以導致更快的交易行動,在他們放棄頭寸之前清算交易者。
In the meantime, high leverage allows traders to make big gains with relatively small collateral while waiting for a more decisive BTC price move. The leveraged trading also leads to retail capitulation, while long-term whales keep taking coins off the market.
同時,高槓桿率使交易者在等待更具決定性的BTC價格轉移的同時,以相對較小的抵押品取得了巨大的收益。槓桿交易也導致零售投降,而長期鯨魚不斷將硬幣從市場上銷售。
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