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Uptober Forming 在稳定币流动性和比特币交易不断上升的情况下对 2024 年选举进行报道
Despite the common perception that a Republican victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election would be more favorable for the cryptocurrency industry, some traders now anticipate that bitcoin will reach new highs regardless of the outcome.
尽管人们普遍认为共和党在即将到来的美国总统选举中获胜将更有利于加密货币行业,但一些交易员现在预计,无论结果如何,比特币都将创下新高。
This shift in traders’ expectations comes as both candidates have expressed support for cryptocurrencies in an effort to appeal to voters. While Republican candidate Donald Trump has made promises to bolster the U.S. standing in the crypto world, Democrat candidate Kamala Harris has not made similar commitments but has stated that she would introduce certain regulations to protect specific groups.
交易员期望发生这种转变之际,两位候选人都表达了对加密货币的支持,以吸引选民。虽然共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普承诺加强美国在加密世界的地位,但民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯并未做出类似的承诺,但表示她将出台某些法规来保护特定群体。
However, several macroeconomic factors are said to be playing a role in the anticipation of higher bitcoin prices either way.
然而,据说一些宏观经济因素在比特币价格上涨的预期中发挥了作用。
“Both Presidential candidates have adopted pro-crypto stances to appeal to voters, but it's tough to say if any of their promises will come to pass,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “However, It is clear that the market is responding positively to the upcoming change in administration and policies - whether it's Harris or Trump, traders and investors think any sort of change will be good.”
“两位总统候选人都采取了支持加密货币的立场来吸引选民,但很难说他们的任何承诺是否会实现,”加密货币交易所 BTSE 首席运营官 Jeff Mei 在 Telegram 消息中告诉 CoinDesk。 “然而,很明显,市场正在对即将到来的政府和政策变化做出积极反应——无论是哈里斯还是特朗普,交易员和投资者都认为任何形式的变化都是好的。”
“The fact that this coincides with the first Fed rate cuts in four years and a recent run-up in stock prices only adds to the thesis that bitcoin could surpass its all-time high and reach $80,000,” Mei added.
Mei 补充道:“事实上,这恰逢美联储四年来首次降息以及最近股价上涨,这一事实只会进一步证明比特币可能会超越历史高点并达到 80,000 美元。”
According to Bloomberg, options traders are increasing their bets that bitcoin will reach new highs by the end of November. The implied volatility for bitcoin options due around election day is notably high.
据彭博社报道,期权交易员加大了对比特币将在 11 月底达到新高的押注。选举日前后到期的比特币期权的隐含波动率非常高。
The open interest for call options expiring on November 29 is concentrated at the $80,000 strike price, with additional interest at the $70,000 level. For call options expiring on December 27, the open interest is mainly grouped around the $100,000 and $80,000 strike prices.
11 月 29 日到期的看涨期权的未平仓合约集中在 80,000 美元的执行价格,额外利息在 70,000 美元的水平。对于 12 月 27 日到期的看涨期权,未平仓合约主要集中在 100,000 美元和 80,000 美元的执行价格附近。
Options expiring on November 8 have their highest open interest at the $75,000 strike price, indicating a key market focus area for that period.
11 月 8 日到期的期权的未平仓合约最高,执行价格为 75,000 美元,这表明该时期是市场的关键关注领域。
Some traders, however, are terming the price behavior an election hedge rather than a bullish outlook.
然而,一些交易员将价格行为称为选举对冲,而不是看涨前景。
“I wouldn't say that people buying 80K calls on BTC to be a bet on higher prices, but is more like a cheap option (implied vol really hasn't gone up that much) against a broader market rally,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.
“我不会说人们购买 8 万个看涨期权的 BTC 是为了押注更高的价格,但它更像是针对更广泛的市场反弹的廉价选择(隐含波动率实际上并没有上涨那么多),”Augustine Fan, SOFA 的洞察负责人在 Telegram 消息中告诉 CoinDesk。
“BTC vol skews heavily in favor of higher prices post election, but that has been the case for quite a few weeks now as an election 'hedge,” Fan added.
Fan 补充道:“比特币交易量在选举后严重偏向于价格上涨,但作为选举的‘对冲’,这种情况已经持续了好几周了。”
BTC is trading down 0.7% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, outperforming a 1.6% decrease in the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.
根据 CoinGecko 的数据,BTC 在过去 24 小时内下跌 0.7%,跑赢 CoinDesk 20 (CD20) 指数 1.6% 的跌幅。
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