Bitcoin (BTC) May Cross Previous Highs Regardless of Which Candidate Becomes the U.S. President, Some Traders Say

Election 2024 coverage presented by Uptober Forming Amid Rising Stablecoin Liquidity and Bitcoin Transactions

Despite the common perception that a Republican victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election would be more favorable for the cryptocurrency industry, some traders now anticipate that bitcoin will reach new highs regardless of the outcome.

This shift in traders’ expectations comes as both candidates have expressed support for cryptocurrencies in an effort to appeal to voters. While Republican candidate Donald Trump has made promises to bolster the U.S. standing in the crypto world, Democrat candidate Kamala Harris has not made similar commitments but has stated that she would introduce certain regulations to protect specific groups.

However, several macroeconomic factors are said to be playing a role in the anticipation of higher bitcoin prices either way.

“Both Presidential candidates have adopted pro-crypto stances to appeal to voters, but it's tough to say if any of their promises will come to pass,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “However, It is clear that the market is responding positively to the upcoming change in administration and policies - whether it's Harris or Trump, traders and investors think any sort of change will be good.”

“The fact that this coincides with the first Fed rate cuts in four years and a recent run-up in stock prices only adds to the thesis that bitcoin could surpass its all-time high and reach $80,000,” Mei added.

According to Bloomberg, options traders are increasing their bets that bitcoin will reach new highs by the end of November. The implied volatility for bitcoin options due around election day is notably high.

The open interest for call options expiring on November 29 is concentrated at the $80,000 strike price, with additional interest at the $70,000 level. For call options expiring on December 27, the open interest is mainly grouped around the $100,000 and $80,000 strike prices.

Options expiring on November 8 have their highest open interest at the $75,000 strike price, indicating a key market focus area for that period.

Some traders, however, are terming the price behavior an election hedge rather than a bullish outlook.

“I wouldn't say that people buying 80K calls on BTC to be a bet on higher prices, but is more like a cheap option (implied vol really hasn't gone up that much) against a broader market rally,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“BTC vol skews heavily in favor of higher prices post election, but that has been the case for quite a few weeks now as an election 'hedge,” Fan added.

BTC is trading down 0.7% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, outperforming a 1.6% decrease in the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.