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Uptober Forming 在穩定幣流動性和比特幣交易不斷上升的情況下對 2024 年選舉進行報導
Despite the common perception that a Republican victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election would be more favorable for the cryptocurrency industry, some traders now anticipate that bitcoin will reach new highs regardless of the outcome.
儘管人們普遍認為共和黨在即將到來的美國總統選舉中獲勝將更有利於加密貨幣行業,但一些交易員現在預計,無論結果如何,比特幣都將創下新高。
This shift in traders’ expectations comes as both candidates have expressed support for cryptocurrencies in an effort to appeal to voters. While Republican candidate Donald Trump has made promises to bolster the U.S. standing in the crypto world, Democrat candidate Kamala Harris has not made similar commitments but has stated that she would introduce certain regulations to protect specific groups.
交易員期望發生這種轉變之際,兩位候選人都表達了對加密貨幣的支持,以吸引選民。雖然共和黨候選人唐納德·川普承諾加強美國在加密世界的地位,但民主黨候選人卡馬拉·哈里斯並未做出類似的承諾,但表示她將推出某些法規來保護特定群體。
However, several macroeconomic factors are said to be playing a role in the anticipation of higher bitcoin prices either way.
然而,據說一些宏觀經濟因素在比特幣價格上漲的預期中發揮了作用。
“Both Presidential candidates have adopted pro-crypto stances to appeal to voters, but it's tough to say if any of their promises will come to pass,” Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “However, It is clear that the market is responding positively to the upcoming change in administration and policies - whether it's Harris or Trump, traders and investors think any sort of change will be good.”
「兩位總統候選人都採取了支持加密貨幣的立場來吸引選民,但很難說他們的任何承諾是否會實現,」加密貨幣交易所 BTSE 首席營運長 Jeff Mei 在 Telegram 訊息中告訴 CoinDesk。 “然而,很明顯,市場正在對即將到來的政府和政策變化做出積極反應——無論是哈里斯還是川普,交易員和投資者都認為任何形式的變化都是好的。”
“The fact that this coincides with the first Fed rate cuts in four years and a recent run-up in stock prices only adds to the thesis that bitcoin could surpass its all-time high and reach $80,000,” Mei added.
Mei 補充說:“事實上,這恰逢美聯儲四年來首次降息以及最近股價上漲,這一事實只會進一步證明比特幣可能會超越歷史高點並達到 80,000 美元。”
According to Bloomberg, options traders are increasing their bets that bitcoin will reach new highs by the end of November. The implied volatility for bitcoin options due around election day is notably high.
根據彭博社報道,選擇權交易員加大了對比特幣將在 11 月底達到新高的押注。選舉日前後到期的比特幣選擇權的隱含波動率非常高。
The open interest for call options expiring on November 29 is concentrated at the $80,000 strike price, with additional interest at the $70,000 level. For call options expiring on December 27, the open interest is mainly grouped around the $100,000 and $80,000 strike prices.
11 月 29 日到期的看漲期權的未平倉合約集中在 80,000 美元的執行價格,額外利息在 70,000 美元的水平。對於 12 月 27 日到期的看漲期權,未平倉合約主要集中在 100,000 美元和 80,000 美元的執行價格附近。
Options expiring on November 8 have their highest open interest at the $75,000 strike price, indicating a key market focus area for that period.
11 月 8 日到期的選擇權的未平倉合約最高,執行價格為 75,000 美元,這表明該時期是市場的關鍵關注領域。
Some traders, however, are terming the price behavior an election hedge rather than a bullish outlook.
然而,一些交易員將價格行為稱為選舉對沖,而不是看漲前景。
“I wouldn't say that people buying 80K calls on BTC to be a bet on higher prices, but is more like a cheap option (implied vol really hasn't gone up that much) against a broader market rally,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.
「我不會說人們購買8 萬個看漲期權的BTC 是為了押注更高的價格,但它更像是針對更廣泛的市場反彈的廉價選擇(隱含波動率實際上並沒有上漲那麼多) ,」Augustine Fan, SOFA 的洞察負責人在 Telegram 訊息中告訴 CoinDesk。
“BTC vol skews heavily in favor of higher prices post election, but that has been the case for quite a few weeks now as an election 'hedge,” Fan added.
Fan 補充道:“比特幣交易量在選舉後嚴重偏向於價格上漲,但作為選舉的‘對沖’,這種情況已經持續了好幾週了。”
BTC is trading down 0.7% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, outperforming a 1.6% decrease in the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index.
根據 CoinGecko 的數據,BTC 在過去 24 小時內下跌 0.7%,跑贏 CoinDesk 20 (CD20) 指數 1.6% 的跌幅。
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